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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Why Poroshenko don’t need Donbass

With the return to Ukraine Hope Savchenko once again risen the degree of anti-Russian rhetoric of the Ukrainian authorities. Recently, the Secretary of the national security Council and defense Oleksandr Turchynov said verbatim about the possibility of resuming “full-scale military operations in Donbass” and that “Ukrainians have to prepare for an adequate response to Russia’s actions”. In parallel, he accused our country in tests of new weapons in the East of Ukraine. And one from a retired Kiev politicians have even suggested that in response to begin to develop in Ukraine a nuclear weapon.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

Possibly, the virus possessed of the bigotry and animal hatred of all things Russian, brought barefoot aimer in Kiev, according to the new infected, and already infected with the Russophobia of Ukrainian politicians.

On the other hand, everything is logical – in a sick society more audible just the radicals. Because now, Savchenko will set the boundaries of the possible, and, consequently, the bar for competition on the part of the hatred of Moscow. There is something to be nervous Turchinov and other things. Nationalists from the Ukrainian punitive battalions have already made her their icon, and their sponsors from among well-known oligarchs have already prepared the plans for using Hope to their advantage.

One never knows – and Savchenko will be in the office Poroshenko in the role of sailor Zheleznyak with approximately identical message. Next time, when another neo-Nazi battalion “Azov” will come to burn the tires to the Verkhovna Rada, threatening to capture the building in the event of a vote under the Minsk agreements, the head of this mass of angry and armed people with broken psyche will go exchanged fury. And these people in modern Ukraine, unfortunately, is not enough. Through the area ATO passed already half a million people who know how (and want) to shoot. This is a consequence of the Board President, which is almost irretrievably lost hope for peace, rather than war.

Two years after the victory of Poroshenko in the Ukrainian presidential election (the first odnotowano in the modern history of the country) it’s time to answer the question – what’s the fifth Ukrainian President will have time to do before the end of his term.

Having come to power with Patriotic enthusiasm, Poroshenko began his tenure with the murder of their own citizens on Donbass. The first shelling of the Donetsk airport began exactly the day after the presidential election. And Donetsk meat grinder occurred exactly on the background of the inauguration of the “chocolate king”.

Bloody boys in the eyes now to the end of life will dream of Peter Alekseevich, but theoretically there is still time to go down in history not only questionable for his corpulent figures military fatigues, but also as a diplomat. No wonder that short time, Poroshenko was a Minister of foreign Affairs .

In the case that the position of the West will be consistent in the enforcement of Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements, Poroshenko sooner or later they will have to push through the Parliament, even in the current obrezano-fake. Find 300 votes to amend the Constitution to defrost the law on the special status of Donbass, to take the Amnesty, to vote in local elections in coordination with the authorities of the DNI-LNR.

Of course, as I wrote above, this will cause sharply negative reaction among radicals at the wound hysterical propaganda society. In this case, the question of preserving power for Poroshenko will be to apply, on the one hand, comprehensive security measures against the rebels, on the other hand, in explaining their positions to the population, redirect it with the thesis “to free Donbass” on the thesis “to reconcile Donbass”.

Not nourishing any illusions in terms of the probability of such a scenario, I think it is important to clarify – just to exclude it wrong, as it is the only path to peace for Ukraine. Explain to Ukrainian people the benefits of peace against the consequences of war can information campaign like the one that now hold the United States and the non-governmental organization in Germany to promote among the masses the idea of the conclusion of the transatlantic trade partnership and US-EU, which is in fact directed against the interests of the German economy.

Good question – who will become the engine of this campaign in the conditions of modern Ukraine? Of course, this will not be easy, but there are other way to achieve peace in the Donbas at the moment. After all, few illusions about the LDNR’s accession to Russia in the near future.

Another and much more probable, today, the option is to aggressively bla-bla-bla of the Minsk process with mutual accusations his breakdown. The initiator of such behavior is unconditional Kiev with the tacit support of Washington. American curator of the Minsk process for Ukraine Victoria Nuland herself regularly performs with similar statements, though, and officially adheres to a policy of “appeasement”.

The results of this scenario can be two to freeze (“transnistrization”) of the conflict at best, and the resumption of hostilities at worst. Now we return to where we started. Latest statements from Kiev, suggests that this scenario may be selected. In this case, it is necessary to wait for provocations on the contact line with subsequent charges in Moscow. And on the strengthening of the Ukrainian forces on the borders of the Crimea says that such actions can happen even there. With simulated Russian invasion in Henichesk district, Kherson region, for example. Should be ready for this turn of events.

And finally, the last, it is the same thing. Long and deep analysis of Ukrainian politics, I can say – Poroshenko and (especially) his entourage are extremely interested in the electoral return of the Donbass in Kiev political space. Because in this case their monopoly of power based on the Pro-Western preferences of the West and center of Ukraine, may be re-questioned returned by the voters of the Donbass. Which in the aggregate (over 5 million) is always significantly affect the balance of votes in all Ukrainian elections.

Why is Poroshenko, Turchinov, Parubiy and Savchenko? They do not want to share power even with a neutral Opposition bloc, not to mention Zaharchenko with Carpentry. Therefore, the chances of an active world is vanishingly small.

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