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Saturday, July 15, 2017

Poroshenko statement about the production of “Mriya” looks like pure fantasy

Ambitious goal set by Petro Poroshenko is to restore Ukraine trade developed in the USSR Antonov An-225 “Mriya” has little to do with reality. Even if Ukraine would find suddenly a huge amount of money needed for such a project, there are many other obstacles, because of which the statement Poroshenko looks pure political demagogy.

The President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko set the task of aircraft building concern “Antonov” to explore the possibilities of issue developed in the USSR aircraft: An-225 Mriya (transport plane jet extra high load capacity, the largest aircraft in the world) and a cargo An-70, which can be used as a military transport and tactical aircraft.

“Mriya” in a single copy, which in itself will cost half a billion dollars, not counting the costs of restoring production. What it will do next Ukraine?”

“Today we saw the possibility of building another “Mriya” An-225, we have the unique case of the An-70, I set the task to calculate all the possibilities, carefully examine the market and report back to me about the possibility of completion of these iconic aircraft,” – said Poroshenko, speaking at the event dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the enterprise “Antonov”.

Recall that in January of this year by the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine (which at that time was still headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk) aviakontserna “Antonov” was liquidated, and its assets were transferred to the state concern “Ukroboronprom”. As mentioned by experts, apparently, the Kiev authorities therefore intend to monitor the work of aircraft factories, for example to prevent cooperation with Russia. However, such control calls into question the very possibility of the existence of the Ukrainian aviation industry, which was created as part of the all-Union aviation industry.

So, in 2000-ies it was reported that the An-70 airplane should be done in conjunction with Russia, but in April 2014 “poslemaydannoe” the Ukrainian government announced the termination of military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation. As a result, the production of the An-70 has been stopped.

As for An-225 “Mriya” (translated from Ukrainian – “Dream”), now only one such aircraft is in flying condition and operated by Ukrainian company Antonov Airlines.

Without The “Buran”

“Mriya” is quite a specific aircraft, – reminded in comments the newspaper VIEW managing Director of the magazine “air transport observer” Maxim Pyadushkin. – The an-225 was created with only one task – to carry the Soviet “Snowstorms”.

The main purpose of heavy transport aircraft in the framework of the project of the reusable space Shuttle “Buran” was the transportation of the various components of the launch vehicle and spacecraft from the place of production and Assembly to start-up. It is obvious that in Ukraine, such problems simply do not exist.

We will add that in the program “Soviet space Shuttle” largest airplane in the world participated only partially – An-225 carried the “Buran” at the air show Le Bourget 1989 and made several demonstration flights at Baikonur on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In its non-space as the air supergroovy not been a special demand: over 4.5 years, Mriya has made about two dozen flights, and with the 2012 through 2015 did not fly at all.

Will do without Russia?

“It is very sad that such a statement makes the President of the country. Let’s start with the simplest – with the recovery proceedings. In order for something to restore, you will want it at least ever been in Ukraine”, – said in an interview with the newspaper LOOK chief editor of the portal AVIA RU Network, expert of the state Duma Committee on transport Roman Gusarov.

Aircraft such as Mriya, was built in broad cooperation with other factories, like the source. And only part of these enterprises located on the territory of Ukraine: “Kiev aviation production Association (KAPA), now the serial plant “Antonov” and the Zaporozhye engine-building plant, the current “Motor Sich”.

But a number of serial components and parts of the An-225 was produced at the Ulyanovsk aviation industrial complex (ALCO) – now joint-stock company “Aviastar-SP”, the chassis was produced at the Gorky, now Nizhny Novgorod “GidroMash”. The main Central part of the wings with flaps delivered Tashkent aviaproizvodstvo combining them. V. P. Chkalov. For painting of the fuselage to involve experts from the Voronezh aviation plant.

“As for the An-70, this plane also was built jointly with Russia – like the hussars. – Moreover, note that still have not resolved the question of pravoobladanie, because the An-70 to a large extent was created on the Russian money. The customer was Russia. It is unclear whether the right of Ukraine to collect these aircraft. And even if it has the right – is Russia going to supply Kiev unique Stupino propellers, which are produced only in Russia and are designed only for this aircraft? (“Stupino machine production plant”, a former factory No. 120 Minaviaprom of the USSR in the Moscow suburb of Stupino – one of the largest enterprises for the production of propellers approx. OPINION).

“The an-70 is a normal transport aircraft, but the question is, who will order, – notes Maxim Pyadushkin. – Initially, this project was developed with an eye on what the Russian air force will procure a sufficient number of such machines. But, as I understand it, the Russian VKS will not buy it. And how much he needed Ukrainian air force and how they have enough finances to buy these planes in quantities that justify their production – is the question”.

“Why “Mriya” market?”

“Theoretically, Ukraine could build another “Miu” for a few years, – said Gusarov. – But another question – why “Mriya” market”.

“Buran” is not, and to use “Miu” as cargo aircraft impractical, in turn, underscores the Maxim Pyadushkin. – The plane is too big. It can work only on a irregular market of oversized cargo, along with the An-124 “Ruslan”. The market is quite narrow, and in order that the carriage was off, you need a good logistics must be very good to consolidate the goods, not under any service with this aircraft.”

To date, the capabilities of this aircraft surplus, agrees Gusarov. “Mriya” performs a single flight on a single contract, is a unique transportation. As the plane is already there, the residual value at zero, so you can exploit it and try to compete on the market with the An-124.

“But the cost of transportation is higher – of “Mriya” on two engines, more fuel consumption, higher, heavier machine. “Ruslan” perfectly closes the market of oversized cargo, says Gusarov. – Incredibly rare cases when you need to transport the goods in literal sense “on the” plane – like “Buran”, it sverhusiliya transportation, which are required every 5-10 years”.

“Very, very expensive plane”

For the sake of it makes no sense to build “very, very expensive aircraft,” said the source. “If you take the serial production of such aircraft, even with the gratuitous labor force, relatively cheap resources available taking into account Ukraine hryvnia exchange rate, the aircraft will cost more than $ 200 million, but rather between 300 and 500 million dollars,” says Gusarov.

Note that the first Vice-President of “Antonov” Alexander Kotsyuba in a recent interview to the Ukrainian portal “Liga.Business”, said: “By conservative estimates, the creation and launch of such a plane in production is estimated at 3-4 billion dollars. The lion’s share of the cost is pre-production, production tooling, procurement of equipment, certification and issue of design documentation”.

For comparison, in March it became known about the amount, which will cost a partial restoration of equipment for the production of a strategic bomber Tu-160 at Kazan aircraft plant them. S. P. Gorbunova (a branch of OAO “Tupolev”). The total amount of the tenders reaches almost 1.7 billion rubles, said “Interfax”. According to experts, the recovery program of serial production of Tu-160M2 (which in March said the President of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov and the President of the United aircraft Corporation (UAC) Yuri Slyusar and which is supported in the defense Ministry) could cost hundreds of billions of rubles.

It is obvious that the budget possibilities of Russia and Ukraine are clearly not comparable.

“We have so far discussed the issue of resumption of production “Ruslan”, but the question does not move because there is no order at least 40 cars to make this project paid off, – the expert emphasizes. – A “Mriya” in a single copy, which in itself will cost half a billion dollars, not counting the restoration of production – what it will do next Ukraine?”

Poroshenko statement – no more than a populist, aimed at “the rise of national consciousness”, but not pursuing practical goals, concludes Gusarov.

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