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Monday, October 24, 2016

Bankers predicted 75 rubles per dollar: whether to believe the forecast

If the exchange rate of the Russian currency will come from a range of 64.5-67 rubles to the dollar, wait for sharp movements. Analysts warn about it one of the largest domestic banks. However, in what direction will swing the pendulum of course they don’t specify. So, if “green” step over a level of 67 rubles, then analysts predict a further weakening of the “wood” — until of 74.90 rubles. But if “American” falls below 64.5 rubles, there is a tendency on strengthening of the national currency to 60 rubles. What to expect the Russians in the near future, “MK” asked the experts.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Timur Nigmatullin, analyst of “Finam”:

– From the point of view of fundamental analysis is now the national currency looks overvalued. In mid-June scheduled meeting of the U.S. Federal reserve and the “big” meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the publication of the report on monetary policy and press conference. In the case of a meeting of the American regulator high probability of a rate hike, which indirectly contributes to the strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. The ruble, in turn, is particularly vulnerable to a tightening in monetary policy because, according to my estimates, at the next meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will host the first in a three quarter reduction of the key rate. It is obvious that on the background of the above, the Russian currency will be under pressure, most of which have roughly the middle of the month, when in the moment can be punched level of 70 rubles per dollar. However, these predictions are valid subject to stable oil prices. If the stock suddenly goes up, the dollar may return to the 63-64 rubles.

Artem Deev, head of the analytical Department AMarkets:

– The probability of devaluation of the ruble is quite high. Moreover, the comparison of 75 rubles to the dollar may be just another transit point before moving higher. The root cause of potential discharge needs to look at the market of hydrocarbons. At the moment Brent crude oil remains one of the most overbought assets, which by definition can not be avoided unloading. The problem of overabundance is enhanced and the unwillingness of OPEC to adopt a position of solidarity to reduce both production and daily quotas. In addition, $50 per barrel is the threshold of profitability where the market can once again go out shale producers from the US. Once that happens, the discrepancy between supply and demand on the world market of energy resources will increase. Given the foregoing, in the event of declining oil prices, the Russian currency is in danger of being under serious pressure. The Bank’s forecast on this background looks quite viable, at least from a fundamental point of view, it is not exactly to complain about.

Rising prices and a falling ruble. Chronicle of events

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