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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Will Putin Kudrin tip: do not strain

Could Putin to improve relations with the West? This issue arose again on the agenda after the absolute world champion on the advice of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, has marked another achievement. At a closed meeting of the economic Council Presidium Alexei Kudrin has tried to convince the President of the need to reduce geopolitical tensions. The only way to attract investment and advanced Western technologies to Russia. According to the meeting participants, Putin said that he started it. And added that he will trade sovereignty in exchange for the loyalty of the West. As press Secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov later said: “there is No need to convince the President that it is necessary to take a constructive stance in international Affairs, it just lies in the basis of his policy.” “MK” asked leading political scientists: whether one desires Putin to reduce tensions and does he have such desire?

photo: Alexander Astafyev

Vladimir Putin, Alexei Kudrin, foreign Minister Lavrov and presidential aide on international Affairs Sergei Prikhodko. 2008. The Residence Of Gaddafi “Azizia”. Libya.

Gleb PAVLOVSKY, President of the effective policy Foundation:

— Both Putin and Kudrin told each other what they think, but they perfectly understood each other. Kudrin speaks in favour of discharge. But isn’t he against the development of the military industrial complex and arms race? Of course, no. Because the military industry is part of the economy, which is becoming more significant. We not only equip its army, but also conclude more contracts for arms exports.

Putin said that he would not sacrifice the geopolitical interests of the country for the sake of reducing tensions. It’s from him I want to hear the Russians. In fact, all more or less close to the President people, and Kudrin no exception, well see that Putin is already making cautious, but prudent steps, to ensure that this tension to remove. In this series, and the termination of the active phase of operations in Syria and the issue of Ukraine Savchenko.

Putin does not use aggressive rhetoric against the West. But since practice has shown that such rhetoric brings political benefits, will consolidate society around the government and reduces the number of dissenters, he has delegated this rhetoric some television and television’s leading politicians. Our ordinary people may think that these entertainers present the views of Putin, and on contacts with the West, these shows are not reflected.

That is, both Putin and Kudrin are a little disingenuous: they say aloud what they expect to hear, but in fact it is not yet clear who is the bigger hawk.

Igor BUNIN, Director of the Center for political technologies:

— It is obvious that the world order is changing, and the tension will increase around the world. Clearly, what Putin dreams: to convene a new Yalta conference, where the world’s leading countries would agree on the areas of their responsibility and interests. And then don’t violate these boundaries. But it is in the twenty-first century is impossible.

Russia may abandon its Imperial pretensions in only one case: if the economic situation in the country will become catastrophic. However, the economy is stagnating, deflates, but it is necessary and to fall in the foreseeable future absolutely is not going to. Therefore, there is a stalemate.

In reality, Russia can weaken the geopolitical tensions only by means of two areas: Ukraine and Syria.

To solve the problem of the tensions around East Ukraine must observe Minsk agreements. But this is completely not ready, neither Russia nor Ukraine. Russia does not want to give up control over your border is unclear who, in the DNI and LC do not understand how their election can follow came armed observers, but Kiev is unwilling to give republics such status, which will give Russia a stake, is capable to influence Ukrainian politics. For example, will not allow the country to join NATO.

Again, if Russia’s economy is still very bad — we just will not to the Ukraine, we will address only their business, and everything will be resolved somehow without us. But this is not happening, and therefore, Putin does not forget about the interests of that part of Ukraine that believed him and decided not to break its ties with Russia.

In Syria, the situation is slightly better. There is nothing to negotiate with the United States, and there are opportunities to negotiate due to the change of status of the Assad government in Syria.

Putin says if Russia in General may not ease the geopolitical tension, it does what depends on it: do not bother her even more, trying to hold in a frozen state all the conflicts that are possible. The President is not willing to weaken sovereignty, but does not want to increase the tension in the world.

Returning to the replica Kudrin. The paradox of the situation is that — Yes, geopolitical tensions, of course, not conducive to the growth of our economy. But in order for this tension has dropped, our economy needs to rise and fall. If she is going to collapse, Putin will change his foreign policy instantly 180 degrees. But he believes that this can not occur.

Leonid SUKIASIAN, a political scientist, Professor at the Higher school of economy:

Of course, Putin may affect the easing of geopolitical tensions. Which he does. We just have many people think like this, it is imperative only to retreat. I don’t agree with it. Here’s a look: if after the coup in Ukraine, Russia has not agreed to join the Crimea — what would have happened? Would now there were already a NATO base. Do you think that geopolitical tensions would be less than it is now? You obviously don’t. If Russia had not intervened in the situation in Syria — can you imagine what would happened now in the middle East and what would be the flow of extremists from there on our Caucasus and back?

This — with one hand. And on the other — precisely in order to reduce geopolitical tensions, Russia opens all doors. Our politicians are making in the sanctions lists, and we let into the country all delegations, no one declared boycotts, at the maximum disclose your information (for example about the actions in Syria) for overseas partners.

Georgy SATAROV, President of INDEM Foundation:

— The foreign policy situation today is not immutable. It can change even one side — Russia. The more that the West Russia is of concern, and he will be happy countermeasures from the Russian authorities. But is it our government? I think not. The tension that including artificially inflated, helps her to solve domestic problems, for example — to suppress dissent. But the government may be forced to go on easing of economic circumstances. It is enough to remember the 80-ies, when the Soviet Union dependent on oil and gas revenues, was forced to begin a warm friendship with the West, collapsed when the price of hydrocarbons. And we now depend on them more than in Soviet times.

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