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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Seasonal reversal


Good news for buyers: in the near future to the shops in droves to get the vegetables and fruits grown in Russia, Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

Photo: press-service X5 Retail Group

“This year prices for food products are growing three times slower than in the past. First, increased import of fruits and vegetables”, – noted the Director of Institute of agrarian marketing Elena Tyurina. In her opinion, the peak of rising prices for foreign food came in the last month of spring. At the end of may – beginning of June will be held the fashion for tropical bananas and citrus fruits, and their place in the diet of Russians is strawberries and cherries, produced in Russia and the countries of Central Asia.

As explained “MK” representatives of chain stores, are now at prices affected by seasonal factors – the old stocks are depleted as vegetables from farmers and wholesale businesses, and new batches of products simply nowhere to take, after all, are the so-called “anti-sanctions”. And its products, as it turns out, is not enough.

Over the past month, by 8.1% more expensive carrots. But on average 24.5% cheaper potatoes, 11% – cucumbers. Continue to fall in the price of dairy products (in spite of rising world prices for grains) and chicken (where, unlike beef, the high percentage of domestic production). To hold back prices will be falling demand and growing competition between the Russian producers of poultry, pork and large retail chains.

Some retailers due to the efficient interaction with suppliers of food products has managed to contain prices for essential goods. For example, in April, according to Rosstat, the cost of the minimum set of products in Russia amounted to RUB 3678 (+RUB 23 to March). And the cost of similar food set at average prices of “the five” for the European part of Russia and Ural in April amounted to RUB 3657 (+RUB by March 21). Thus, the index of “the five” (the ratio of the value of prolabor at average prices in the stores and the cost of the minimum list of products Rosstat) for the European part of Russia and Ural was 99.4%, censuses by 0.1% compared to the previous month. In Moscow the set of Rosstat was worth 4430 roubles (+£56. by March), and “the five” – just RUB 3863 (+39 RUB by March). In St. Petersburg the cost of a set of Rosstat amounted to RUB 4475 (+58 RUB by March). Set value of the food on an average price of Pyaterochka 4218 amounted to RUB (+ 46 RUB by March).

As explained in the trading network, derajat prices was possible due to “products-drivers”, which were presented in a “roundabout” at prices lower than the national average: sugar (–13%), apples (down 13%), drinking milk (-13%), peas and beans (–17%), chilled and frozen chickens (– 21%), sunflower oil (– 30%).

As suggested by a leading expert, Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting Igor Polyakov, the price increase will affect the three divergent factor. First, a number of farmers postarayutsya to move on the consumer part of their costs (fuel costs, loans, purchase and repair of equipment, salaries of employees etc.).

Second, the food dependence of Russia decreased noticeably (especially in the production of poultry and pork), but remains significant. “In addition, there is a niche imported products (olive oil, bananas, oranges, some varieties of chilled fish), which just can not be replaced. This fact will put pressure on prices,” – said the expert.

In the third, limited demand. “Income of the population as in real and in nominal iscelenie fall. Authorities have taken a pause in the indexation of social and labor pensions. The decline in demand the prices will not be given the opportunity to disperse,” said Igor Polyakov. According to his forecast, this year the cost of the food basket will increase by 5-6%. This was 3 percent lower than a year earlier.

Vladimir Drozdov

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