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Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Poland refused to Russian gas

Poland intends to suspend the purchase of “blue fuel” of our country, on contracts on a long term basis. The poles claim that to buy gas on the open market easier and cheaper. Poland also intends to build a pipeline from Norway and to increase imports from Qatar. Experts argue that these projects are economically unjustified. War is waged not against our gas in principle, but against the construction of new gas routes to the EU from Russia. However, new partners of Warsaw in the middle East can be twice as expensive — contracts for sale of liquid fuel, for example, Qatar may cost $650, whereas in Russia, gas costs 2-3 times cheaper. If Warsaw will take a stand against these prices, then it would also have to turn to the Stockholm court, as in the case of the dispute against our country.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Poland — the traditional buyer of our gas. “Blue fuel” in this country began to be delivered during the great Patriotic war. Even 5 years ago, Poland was ranked first among the States of Eastern Europe by volumes of gas imports.

Total Polish consumption is 15 billion cubic meters. 10 billion — supplies from Russia, the rest close local company.

Until recently, both sides are satisfied. Now, as stated by the representative of the Polish government on the development of strategic energy infrastructure Piotr Naimski, the country intends to move away from long-term contract with “Gazprom”. “If the price of Russian gas will be competitive, we do not exclude the possibility of its acquisition, but certainly not in the long — term agreement,” Naimski said.

The Polish official approval from the experts is puzzling. According to the Deputy Director of the national energy security Fund gas problems Alexei Grivach, a long-term agreement between Moscow and Warsaw is valid for another 6 years. “During this time, the government in Poland to change 2-3 times. Poland negotiated the deregulation of gas supplies from Russia in early 2000-ies, but then they did not result in success. After a few years, Poland has experienced a serious shortage of “blue fuel” in the autumn-winter period. This has led to a shortage of fuel and basic freezing part of the population”, — says the expert.

Now this provision, despite the loud statements of the Western countries, not only has not changed. “Gas production in Europe is declining. There has been a fall in the UK and the Netherlands. The same scenario is projected in Norway, of which Poland intends to build an alternative to the Russian pipeline. The construction of a gas pipeline with a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters (which is so necessary for the poles to close domestic needs) will become economically advantageous. These pipes will not build one,” — said Alexey Grivach.

Warsaw hopes for an LNG terminal, the completion of which the Polish town of Swinoujscie on the Baikal sea has to happen from day to day. This terminal will have a capacity of 5 billion cubic meters per year. These volumes can be increased to 7.5 billion cubanow. That is, Warsaw will be able to replace supplies from Russia.

This view can be subjected to serious doubt. “The construction of the pipe capacity of 10 billion cubic meters — is not economically profitable”, — says Alexei Grivach. More interesting and cheaper Europe will expand the gas pipeline “Nord stream”, and to build Nord stream — 2″ (the main pipe between the EU and Russia, also passing through the Baltic sea). In favor of these projects has been are Germany, Austria and other EU countries.

“The demarche of Poland — shopping time. In conditions of low energy prices they try to bring down tariffs. But the agreement is concluded on a long term basis and will be reviewed even in the Stockholm court less than two years”, — said Grivach.

During this time, you will, in support with the Berlin and Vienna, to push the construction of the mentioned gas pipeline from Russia. Yes, and Poland may refuse the allegations. For example, gas from the Middle East at a cost in 2 times more expensive than Russian.

Recall that for a long time to deal with the Russian gas dependence Poland has signed a contract with Qatar for the supply of liquefied gas. But all the power of gas suppliers could not be found: shortage of liquid fuel was felt in volumes of 50% from the declared volumes. The average price of raw materials “Gazprom” in Europe until recently was $380 per thousand cubic meters. According to the formula specified in the agreement of Poland and Qatar on 2014, the price per thousand cubic meters of LNG is more than $650.

And esoi now the poles give us 10 billion a cube of approximately $3.8 billion, with the full transition to the Qatari raw materials they will have to give $6.5 billion.

Of course, these rates start from the prices for oil at the time. But, in this case, the Treaty should be revised. And also, in line with European Union practice, in Stockholm.

However, “Gazprom” also do not relax. Most long-term export contracts were concluded in the expectation of a rise in energy prices. Now the projections of the raw materials ‘ quotes quite pessimestichno. “Gazprom” it is time to think about what part of the export contracts to be concluded for ten to twenty years, and what proportion of “blue fuel” to sell on short-term market, where prices vary almost daily basis.

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