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Monday, March 19, 2018

The conflict between Russia and Turkey was encouraged by Greece, but disappointed Abkhazia

Reaction to the conflict of neighboring countries of Turkey, among which a lot more enemies than friends, are fundamentally different. The Greeks gloat, saddened by the Abkhazians, the Armenians are the military preparations, but the Azeris were silenced. This is despite the fact that the current situation gives them a chance to get some benefit.

Is to be expected on the Russian-Turkish crisis reacted in Greece, which for decades embroiled in a confrontation with its Eastern neighbor on land and at sea – around several disputed Islands in the Aegean sea. The number of air battles of varying intensity around the uninhabited archipelago with the speaker called Anthropophagi has long exceeded one thousand per year. There are casualties on both sides and significant. There are even specific commemorative dates in memory of the victims of pilots and sailors.

“When the Recep-Bay rampant – Brussels calms down. However, the political grace of a freight train against Russia does not work”

Two biggest army of the Balkans – Turkish and Greek – are full-fledged hunting each other, with barren rocks, on which even the Marines to disembark could not, just an excuse. This confrontation hundreds of years, only increases the technological level of the armies and the aspect ratio. To reconcile the two NATO members cannot be given by anyone, as if someone called for a “constructive dialogue” and “European mechanisms”. These mechanisms and so is worthless, the European officials working in the multilevel system of EU foreign policy, it’s time to look for a new job, much to force Ankara to abandon terror bombing of Greece they obviously can not.

At the official level, of Athens no loud statements, of course, was not followed – discipline in NATO is supported from Washington cane techniques, and even such a recalcitrant state, as Greece, forced to abide by corporate rules. But at the household level and in Greek media on Turkey was hit by a wave not even criticism, but outrageous hatred. And with a clear tinge of Schadenfreude type “and we told you”. But Greece, with its protracted economic crisis will not go beyond verbal skirmishes simply because no mechanisms “otvetku” Athens had no. To buy Russian s-300 (such conversations were a few years ago, but there was a default), they can not, and any specific intelligence is not available. So Greek and Turkish pilots will continue to froth at sea Anthropophagi, multiplying a list of these cannibal Islands.


The defense Ministry published a detailed scheme of the flight of Russian su-24 and Turkish F-16. The diagram clearly shows that Turkish fighter in advance was waiting for the Russian bomber and could react differently to even hipotetical violation of the su-24 air space Tuliposide was the reaction of Armenia. Few people remember that during the fierce fighting in Nagorno Karabakh between Syria and Stepanakert operated by air bridge, which in Karabakh was no food and possibly weapons and reinforcements Syrian and Lebanese Armenians. So for Karabakh and the conflict in Syria – not someone else out there close to the heart perceive the fate of the Armenian population of the region.

Not forgotten and the events of February 1994, when, during the bloody fighting in the Omar mountain pass, and ended with the defeat of the Azerbaijani army factions, the Turkish 3rd field army several times imitated the offensive on Armenia. The Turks had tanks and expanded the ranks were moving to the Armenian border in the direction of Yerevan and Gyumri. But the border was guarded by Russian border guards, which may not have allowed Turkey to attack. Even earlier, in 1993, during another occurrence of Karabakh, the President of Turkey Turgut Ozal, according to some data, was already ready to give the order to attack Yerevan, but immediately after returning from Baku, died suddenly. Rumors (sources which were mainly Kurds) that Ozal was poisoned by the Turkish secret services, because he allegedly was ready to make peace with Kurdish rebels. The widow of özal only after 10 years managed to get a retrial of his death and the exhumation of the body. The forensic medical examination in 2012 was discovered in the remains of the President a whole bunch of various poisons: DDT, polonium and cadmium americium to the mysterious and extremely rare strychnine-keratin. The investigation is not finished till now.

Armenia is actively involved in complex military actions taken by Russia after the attack on the Russian bomber videoconferencing. In particular, given the increased willingness of the Russian s-300 systems are located at bases in Armenia. It should be understood that this is not a purely Russian weapons, which is geographically tied to Armenia for a month already operates as a joint air defense system of Armenia and Russia under the overall command coupled to the same with the staffs and forces in the North Caucasus. Armenian air defense and air force is included in the system of the Federal office directly, as the Russian system on the territory of the RA. This configuration was initially created as “anti-Turkish”, although formally such a combat mission, no set. Just Turkey is a NATO member, and the total defensive air defense system “has in mind” namely NATO. Now, when Ankara began play at your own risk, Russian-Armenian air defense took control of Eastern Anatolia. The region’s largest military air base of NATO in Erzurum and Diyarbakir – in fact, paralyzed. Of course, Turkish air force flights over its territory because it does not stop, but the feel will be uncomfortable.

While any aggravation of the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone should not be expected. Yes, Azerbaijan’s military budget now exceeds the entire budget of Armenia, but Baku is not ready for the resumption of hostilities, Azerbaijan would like to have a guarantee that Russia will at least keep the neutrality, but such will never happen. The only military option for Baku would be to conduct ultra-fast offensive, but it’s just not possible, given the perennial defensive preparations of the parties – only one mine to four kilometers in both directions, what is the blitzkrieg? Because in Yerevan and Stepanakert do not feel the need to focus on the situation on the Karabakh line of conflict, despite the fact that in the past year, the intensity of local skirmishes there is constantly growing.

Another thing is that Armenia owing to dependence on the Diaspora, with its somewhat different from the Yerevan world vision continually strives to conduct what she calls the “weighted rate”. In fact, it is embodied in ongoing talks with NATO representatives about some mythical “support programmes”. But further verbal compliments and promises of a brighter path, it is not come, and now Yerevan is clearly on the side of Russia. Hardly anyone thinks seriously about large-scale war with Turkey, but the situation has to be nostalgia for the Kars and Ardahan, and even Cilicia.

But another ally of Russia and also the happy owner of a military base with s-300 and “Beeches” – Abkhazia – for a few hours was a paralysis of consciousness. Officially, Abkhazia unequivocally condemns the actions of Turkey and supported the position of Moscow. At the same time at the household level, some part of Abkhazian society over the last two decades turned out to be too integrated in Turkey. At the political level this is expressed in constant fraternization with various organizations of the Circassian Diaspora, which are perceived in Abkhazia, not only as ethno-cultural brethren, but also as a source of funding. On the other hand, Circassian organizations in Turkey do not enjoy the support of the state, because the very idea of the Turkish state denies the existence of any minorities. Exactly formulated national idea atatürk, inventing times for the Turkish people, the Turkish state and the Turkish language. For half-Albanian, half-Macedonian, in whose government there was not a single ethnic Osman, like reformatting the consciousness of a whole people was the only way to save this nation in principle. Now for all this pay the descendants of Circassians-Muhajir, which with the collapse of the USSR there was a surge of interest to their brethren in the Caucasus, and the Kurds who just do not want to be Turks as Ataturk bequeathed.

Some part of the political class of Abkhazia was so involved in relations with Turkey, the prospect of deteriorating relations between Ankara and Moscow until complete rupture are seriously scared and shocked. Within a matter of hours after the attack on the plane, it became clear that a major war no one wants, but the sediment remained. In addition, Istanbul has for many years used as a Playground for all kinds of informal meetings at the level of NGOs and so-called public diplomacy – going back many, despite the hysterical warnings of the security agencies. Finally, for a long time Turkey was almost the only trade partner of Abkhazia, including with a hint of smuggling. In Sukhum Turkish businessmen feel absolutely free. At least it was until last week. You have to understand that this whole “crisis of consciousness” was short-lived and ended quickly. Patriotism and responsibility still outweighed parochial sentiments, although some regrets have been expressed yet. In the end, indeed, the sharp deterioration in relations with a friendly country considered regrettable.

From Baku, there was no sound, no rustle. And this seems to be a principled political position, so to speak. Some well-informed political scientists of Azerbaijan has said that Azerbaijan has no relation to what is happening – either directly or indirectly, therefore, makes no sense at all to do anything or even comment. On the other hand, hovers in the margins of the idea that the tragic events in the Russian-Turkish relations – a rare chance for Ilham Aliyev to be if not an “intermediary” directly (this he may not let US), then at least to provide Baku for negotiation platform. For Aliyev, it’s really chance at least to draw the attention of Moscow and to split off Russia from further military integration with Armenia. So far, however, Baku is waiting, not wanting to get into a fight before the moment when it will be determined favorite.

Meanwhile, the favorite is already defined. Characteristic of the President of Turkey the behavior of the raging dervish works great on the European audience, and partly in the us. When the Recep-Bay rampant – Brussels calms down. However, the political grace of a freight train against Russia are not working. And now Erdogan via unnamed intermediaries requesting a meeting with Putin. The role and personality of the facilitator is extremely important, even which region it represents. Aliyev a lot of competitors, and the longer lingers of Baku, the faster it disappears the chance to improve their strategic position in the region.

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