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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Retire later and earn less


In Russia increased the retirement age. To start, officials decided with yourself. Vladimir Putin signed a law increasing the age limit for civil servants. Planck will increase gradually every year for six months. For men it will bring to 65 years for women to 63. Similar recipes are trying to write to all other citizens, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. The Chairman of the Economic Council under the President Alexei Kudrin has been proposing to increase the retirement age to 65 years.

However, against the clearly unpopular measures was unexpectedly made by the presidential aide Andrei Belousov. He warned that the later workers will go on a holiday, the greater will be the unemployment — to 10 million people by 2025. The fact that the Russian economy will not survive unless there is an annual increase of 4%.

And this is possible only on changes in productivity in the year by 5%. The last, and so will lead to massive layoffs. And when veterans will not loose their jobs, young people will have nowhere to settle. Also pensions will not grow.

When and what to wait for our compatriots from such an unpopular measure, found “MK”.


photo: Mikhail Kovalev

The retirement age without the consent: “for” and “against” increasing strap

The retirement age at 55 years for women and 60 for men in the post-Soviet space is preserved only in Uzbekistan and Russia. Just recently the ranks of those where the bar low, left Belarus. The hole in the pension Fund in the amount of 1 trillion Belarusian rubles (about 3.3 billion Russian rubles. — “MK”) has forced the government of Belarus to press ahead with raising the age. Apparently, not far off increase in Russia.

But if the bar for public employees the issue has been resolved, in respect of all other Russians there is no agreement. So, in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of economic development continue to insist on immediate increase in the retirement age.

According to the head of the MAYOR Alexei speaker, this measure is inevitable.

Therefore, the Minister proposes to gradually raise the bar up to 63 years for all citizens, regardless of gender. In this scenario, the reform would require 16 years for women and 6 for men. Another option is to keep the gap at five years and increase the age of retirement until 60 and 65 years respectively.

According to Anton Siluanov, the time for reflection is simply no: at stake is the Russian economy. In order to make ends meet, annually from the Federal budget and the national welfare Fund to the Pension Fund of Russia transferred more than 1.5 trillion rubles.

“If we do nothing in this direction in a few years the number of pensioners will exceed the number of employees. It can’t be. We have 120 employees in fact give money to contain 100 retirees in other countries — 150-160”, — said Siluanov.

In fairness it should be noted that the Minister of Finance is right. Really, when one retiree for only one working — that no economy can withstand.

“Now in the economically active age is part of the generation 90’s, when there was a sharp demographic decline. But at the same time to retire “the other baby boomers of the postwar period, when, on the contrary, there has been a sharp surge in the birth rate. As a result, the employer contributions to the Pension Fund of Russia (PFR) decrease, and the deficit will require more funds from the Federal budget. As you know, last in the medium term will be scarce. That is without raising the retirement age, the FIU will not be able to meet its obligations to pensioners”, — says “MK”, the first Vice-President of “OPORA Russia” Paul Segal.

In other words, every ruble must be used as efficiently as possible.

The excuses from the category of “men do not live to retirement age” at least not serious. First, formally, the threshold of retirement at 60 years still have passed. But that’s not the point: the average life expectancy of men — about 65 years — still remains low. But why? Yes, because the death rate of men from the so-called external causes (homicides, suicides, accidents, traffic accidents and so on) — three times higher than in developed countries. While mostly die young. Here and the resulting low average life expectancy of men.

To raise the retirement age, when the “smell of fried”

Meanwhile, the low retirement age in addition to Russia, there is in China. However, to compare our country with China is not entirely correct. “According to Chinese law, the right to pension men get 60 years, and women 50 or 55 years, depending on the scope of employment. And on a state pension can only count civil servants and employees of prosector. Farmers pension does not get. They are in the care of children. The situation is complicated by the gradual aging of the population, which has already forced the Chinese government to announce the increase in the retirement age and reform the system,” — said a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB Alena Afanasyeva.

But in the developed countries has already raised the retirement age, regardless of gender. “At the same time it should be definitely noted that in many of these countries people can retire earlier if he agreed to a stripped-down pension. In other practice of partial retirement: polupansiona works part time and receives a partial pension. You can also retire early if you have developed seniority. A typical example is Italy, where to retire at any age if you have 35 years of insurance experience. Because of this there can be a pensioner and ten years ahead of schedule — not in 67, 57,” comments “MK” the President of a financial holding MFX Group Igor Volkov.

However, developed countries are considering the option to further increase the retirement age. Thus, the international monetary Fund has suggested Germany to raise the bar from the current 65 years to 67 by 2029. These changes, experts have linked with the increase in life expectancy.

In addition, the dynamics of the economy of this country shows good results. Thus, Germany’s GDP in January–March 2016 increased by 1.3% compared to the same period last year.

Therefore, the IMF staff believe that further progress in implementing structural reforms could contribute to growth of economic potential” of Germany. Therefore, they recommended the country to increase public and private investment in infrastructure. Furthermore, in light of the migration flow to the EU countries the Foundation has identified the need to provide wider employment of refugees.

In Russia, according to experts, to raise the retirement age had for a long time. As it did not only developed countries but even the countries of the CIS.


photo: Sergei Ivanov

Make a decision on raising the bar of our government had in the mid 2000-ies, when the economy steadily grew, and with it the real income of the population. And be power efficient reform could extend for as long a period, without prejudice to ordinary Russians.

However, experience shows that in Russia start to run when “the shit hits the fan”.

Officials relied only on the rising price of “black gold” and believed that “petrodollar rain will never stop.

It is noteworthy that the increase in the retirement age, the government did not dare even in the 90s. So far the worst in socio-economic terms it has been a while. Then for the indexation of pensions is not expected, however, as now.

Recently, during a visit to Crimea by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on a question about the indexation of pensions from a local resident replied that no money for that all over Russia. “We find that money — will do the indexing. Hold on, all you good, good mood and health,” he wished the Prime Minister and then fled behind his security.

No extra money, Yes. But in those “dashing 90-e” in contrast to the current day, subtract the latter — the retirement age — the authorities did not dare. Now there is a powerful preparation for the rapid solution of the question of pension age raise.

Among those opposed to increasing the age limit did not let up and looking for an alternative to this unpopular measure. However, decidedly mixed. So, presidential aide Andrei Belousov sees no urgent need to raise the retirement age. “I do not believe that it is inevitable. You can do it gently enough, but the alternative to raising the retirement age is to increase payments to the Pension Fund from the business or from the population”, — said Belousov.

Moreover, in interview to the program “Vesti” on may 28, he warned: “There are simple calculations that show that if we still go back to the path of growth of labour productivity in accordance with the decrees (presidential, dated 12 may 2012. — “MK”) is approximately 5% per year, then we have by 2020 “extra” people will be about a million two hundred thousand, and by 2025 — approximately 3.5 million people. What happens if we increase the retirement age? Within the scope of employment by the year 2025 fall nearly 10 million people. The question arises: what will they live 10 million, they have where are going?..”

But, on the other hand, assistant to the President acknowledged that the Pension Fund deficit reached nearly 2 trillion rubles. How to repay?

Currently, employers deduct 22% of premiums for their employees. Thus, according to the same Siluanov, according to Russian law, in 2018 they will be increased to 26%.

Therefore, the Minister of Finance in contrast to the Belousov is convinced that raising the retirement bar, it is possible to avoid increasing the burden on business, which is now in need of funds.

“If you increase pension contributions, the effect will be the opposite. Additional burden on business will only increase. The total volume of contributions, which is already on the brink, will be reduced even more. Employers will prefer simply not to issue employees — will be, for example, prevailing contract work. Simply put, 22% will be put into the void”, — believes the managing partner Kirikov Group Daniil Kirikov.

According to experts, the alternative would be a voluntary insurance when the employee deducts a percentage from the salary or even to abandon it. Also, you should more carefully choose projects that operate on the extra-budgetary funds, e.g. the FIU.

However, experts interviewed by “MK”, I have no doubt that the pension age in Russia will be increased. However, when exactly? Someone said that after the upcoming fall elections to the State Duma, and someone — after the presidential in 2018. The authorities are afraid to lose votes.

In any case, expect an instantaneous positive effect is not worth it. And even if it is achieved, will not last long.

“With the current state of the economy, positive financial effect from the pension age increase will last three years. In the fourth year the effect will be reset”, — considers the rector of Academy of labor and social relations Alexander Safonov.

According to him, the current tariff policy, in order to close “holes” in the pension system, we need 10 million to 70 million new workers in the labor market.

In other words, the modern history of raising the retirement age in Russia — an illustration of how the adoption of the most important socio-economic decisions can hurt the huge number of people.

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