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Friday, October 21, 2016

Russia will benefit from the exchange Savchenko

The exchange of the citizen of Ukraine Savchenko for Russian citizens Alexander and Erofeev in Russia caused a mixed reaction. It is even more noticeable amid the cheering of Ukraine, whose government arranged the return of Savchenko national holiday. Main question: why, knowing this, Vladimir Putin all-taki has decided to pardon?

Talks about a possible exchange had been going on for a long time. Given that almost two years Savchenko was a symbol of Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression”, her fate was talking with Putin and European leaders, and American leaders. Petitioned and Kiev – offering in exchange two Russian ex-military Alexander Alexander and Evgeny Erofeev, captured in the Donbass.

“Exchange Savchenko is the first element of the game with Europe, not with Kiev”

The Russian government flatly refused to release Savchenko, and only two months ago, after making her sentence, began to allow exchange for “good people”. The only question was who are these good people – in the Ukrainian prison Alexander Yerofeyev and were not considered equal exchange. Not so much the Russian authorities, as the public opinion: Savchenko was scary raspiarili not only in Ukraine and in the West, but in Russia. To change this “prominent figure” on the two accidentally captured Russians if they wanted to get them out of prison didn’t seem right, the unequal exchange. And yet it still happened. What motivated the Kremlin and what are the lessons of history with Savchenko?

First, the cons, i.e. the damage, and purely domestic. The whole story Savchenko was initially perceived by the society as exemplary punishment of those who kill people in the Donbass. What exactly Savchenko accused of involvement in the murder of Russian journalists, did not have fundamental importance, still it has become a symbol of the punitive operation of Kiev against Donbass. Her sentence was perceived by public opinion, regardless of whether initially wanted this our government or not.

This attitude has developed in society including by reason of the excessive and sometimes purely Ukrainian hysterical attention to the subject Savchenko in the Russian media. And there is no matter whether they themselves escalate the degree or, as they thought, were just against the most powerful counter-propaganda campaign in defense of “innocent Nadi” that developed in the West and in Ukraine. Release a character with such a reputation is basically impossible – you have Chikatilo free.

The only possible option is to exchange for some of their own, but significant in the eyes of society, that is, alas, just hyped by the media. Now the authorities and the press accused that they did of Alexander and Yerofeyev heroes, not deployed in the Russian campaign for their release – but it wasn’t meant to be. Not because we do not know how to fight for their, and because we didn’t need proof of our innocence, and especially the victory over Kiev. Savchenko is a tool of pressure on Russia for the West, the tool of injection of anti-Russian hysteria in the community for Kiev. And we with Ukraine and so everything is clear.

There is a terrible tragedy. Came to power Russophobic puppet and anti-national forces, there is a collapse and failed States, civil war. Russia is directly involved in this conflict, helping those who can not imagine themselves outside the Russian world, and is now in the minority. What are we to prove ourselves? Our main mistake was that of Savchenko in the end, the symbol of the “bloody regime in Kiev”, which is hysterical, but stubborn aimer, of course, is not pulled. Whether it happened consciously, due to some installation on the demonization Savchenko? No, there probably was affected by the combination of the two, alas, normal for our reality factors.

First, the inability to respond quickly to changing information situation, propaganda to calculate the consequences of their actions. In the case of Savchenko is evident in impossible debt during the process. After it became clear that it took the shield of the West and Kiev, I had to make it to or as quickly as possible to condemn it, or, without waiting for sentence, be exchanged for our prisoners. Neither one nor the other was not done. In the end, more than two years Savchenko propaganda was gaining weight, becoming more formidable “weapon of information destruction.”


Ukrainian pilots Hope Savchenko was met at home with great excitement. Having shouted at the journalists and telling about future plans, she accompanied sister went to the audience to Poroshenko, who had prepared for the “heroine” a fiery speech and a medal

Secondly, it is a self-winding machine of television “propaganda”. Playing on the huge public interest in the Ukrainian theme and developed around the theme of protection of the Russian world public consent, “TV” worked up heated passions, and sometimes to the sublimation of fear and hatred. Instead of a calm, intelligent and concerned analysis of the situation in Ukraine, based on the belief that “our cause” and neither the West nor the current Ukrainian elite will not be able permanently to break the Russian Ukrainians and Russians, we often impose hysteria and exorcism. And the story Savchenko is only one of the episodes.

Whether it was that Russia and Putin? Of course not. But this “game” has become a favorite pastime of many of the leaders of electronic media, “experts” and politicians. They’re in it for the ratings and at the same time, the initiative has proven to Kremlin, their “patriotism”, wanting a false defense of national interests to gloss over its recent and absolutely genuine cosmopolitanism, and that outright Russophobia.

The Kremlin accused that he succumbed to pressure from the West that it puts its geopolitical combinations of the above morality: “how is it that talked about the fact that she’s a killer, and now I release?”. Putin understands this. And if you say that it lends itself to some pressure, as silly as to talk about the “surrender of Donbass”, that geopolitical considerations undoubtedly played an important role in the decision. That’s why he went on the exchange, realizing all the damage he will suffer in the eyes of public opinion, he prioritized the benefits that will bring this combination.

First, it was important to close the topic itself Savchenko, i.e. to remove the cause for attacks on Russia by Western media and politicians. Exchange Savchenko is the first element of the game with Europe, not with Kiev. And it is on a par with the endless and seemingly pointless discussion of the stages of implementation of the Minsk agreements. Donbass is completely lost for Ukraine – current, controlled Atlanticist forces – and nevertheless around Minsk agreements is a constant game.

Because both Europe and Russia want the same thing – to make so that it was possible to report on the implementation of “Minsk” in form, not to perform it in fact. Absolutely impossible return of Donbass in what is now Ukraine, but we need to make sure that the agreement was made as if that was “progress”. That will allow European countries to remove the bulk of sanctions against Russia and to restore normal relations. Yes, leaving the situation in Ukraine suspended, but at least without the daily threat of resumption of hostilities.

To achieve this, you need to demonstrate to the European public opinion “progress” – that the observer mission will arm, that the laws on the elections of Kiev were forced to accept (knowing that the authorities in the Donbass will remain in the hands of the DND and LNR), here the prisoners free. The story of Savchenko is in the same row: “That Russia has made concessions, released the Deputy of the European Parliament”.

Putin plays this game, not in the giveaway, and in the struggle for Europe, which Russia is with the Atlantic masters of the Old world. Of course, this rivalry for us less important than the struggle for Ukraine, that is, in fact, the Western part of the Russian world, but one does not negate the other.

As for the actual Ukraine, in the case of a decision on Savchenko’s played a secondary role. Although, of course, there is no doubt that Nadia freed will add to the madness in Kiev politics. The joy of her “rescue” will be short-lived, but the problems with the “national character”, is still configured to return the Donbass and Crimea, will be enough.

There is a third motive: secret agreements about which we can only guess. At the beginning of spring, a leak that between Moscow and Washington are holding consultations about a possible exchange Savchenko to Russian citizens in American prisons – primarily it was about Viktor bout and pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko. Although soon followed by denials from both sides, it is clear that the smoke without fire does not happen. Moreover, all three names were discussed at the held on the same days in Moscow the meeting of Putin and Secretary of state Kerry.

Given that fundamental questions about the Ukrainian crisis, the Kremlin prefers to refer directly to Washington, not to Kiev (that is, the suzerain, and not a vassal), it would not be surprising if soon it turns out that the exchange Savchenko was the result of secret agreements between Russia and the United States. No, neither Putin nor Kerry, of course, not discuss package agreement. But if, before the end of the year will be made exchange Yaroshenko, or even a booth at any of located in Russian prisons, the version of the “Kremlin conspiracy” will get confirmed.

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