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Thursday, October 27, 2016

The coming to power of Le Pen can only suspend

Marine Le Pen is surely coming to power in France. And even the fact that the national front failed to win the second round of regional elections, end up working for her victory in the fight for the elysée Palace. To stop the NF and Le Pen is impossible – you can only postpone the inevitable, and that trying to make the French elite.

The socialists withdrawing their candidates in favor of Republicans has led to the fact that the front national, the most popular party in France, could not come to power in any of the regions. The turnout in the second round increased by almost one-fifth – and NPH won the first round in half of the regions, three of which by a large margin, eventually lost. The party list led by marine Le Pen received in the North of France 43 percent, and for the candidates at the head NF her niece Actually voted 45 percent in the South.

“The longer Le Pen will not let power, the more her supporters”

Elites – the ruling socialists and the opposition Republicans – rejoice, although it continues to escalate: “the danger of the extreme right has not passed”, said Prime Minister Valls. The word “danger” socialist and a likely presidential candidate, who on the eve of the second round have agreed to the fact that the victory Front can unleash the country’s civil war,” uses as applied to the French, all French. Although in reality only threatens NF French elite, more precisely, its two-party right-left.

The absurdity of the situation in which the party for which votes are already more than a third of French voters, called a threat to national security, visible to all. Nevertheless, the vast majority of the French ruling class using its control over the national media, continues efforts to drive NF the marginal angle in which he was held four decades. And despite the fact that Le Pen has nothing to radicals, nor to fascists, nor even to the chauvinists. It’s just mentally and physically healthy 47-year-old female politician, advocating for national values (including family), an independent foreign policy (which includes out of the EU and NATO’s military structures, normal relations with Russia), the restriction of migration and the power of big capital, including the supranational. It is consistent, ideological and has no stain and in less than five years of its leadership NF the party became number one in France. In the remaining before the presidential election 500 days its popularity will only grow – and the French party and administrative bureaucracy, along with the media will do everything in order not to prevent the victory of Le Pen in the spring of 2017. To stop Le Pen – now the main idea, concern and goal for the socialists of President Hollande and the Republicans of his predecessor Sarkozy.

Her exit in the second round cannot be prevented – for a long time its rating is higher than any of his challengers. But the French political elite until recently it was thought that is safe. In the second round for any opponent, Le Pen will vote for most of the supporters of all eliminated in the first round of candidates (whether left or right), and the leader of “National front” will never be President.

Here’s a design – protects us from the radicals proudly say professional politicians. The fact that more voters with disdain that to the socialists, the Republicans, none of the established politicians don’t care. In a pinch you can steal some items of the program of Le Pen – that vengeance does Sarkozy, and now Hollande. After all, the main goal is to keep the “non-system” to power, to the system of governance in which cozy feel of almost six decades both alternately ruling wing of the French elite.

Perfect for the elite would be to bring the situation back to 2012, again forcing it to choose between a faceless crook Hollande and Sarkozy (then Le Pen took the third place), but it is, alas, impossible. Well, then, you will need to make repeated elections of 2002, when past the second round, Jean-Marie Le Pen failed to add one percent of the vote. But times change – and Marin is not her father, and migrants all became worse, and the EU does not cause the former award. And ratings for Le Pen grows, there is no guarantee that, increasing in five years the result of the party in regional elections three times (from 10 to 30 percent), it will not double its 17 percent of the sample in 2012 in the first round 2017 and will triple them in the second.

Yes, while it is a nightmare for the socialists and the Republicans – but everything comes to an end, and the usual unit of power, too. Maybe – even likely – in 2017 they will be able to stop Le Pen in the second round. But it would be just another clear indication that the current political elite to preserve itself in power is the number one task – and it would be strange to think that this will not notice the French voter. That is, the longer NF will not let the authorities, the more will be angry that the most ordinary Patriotic Frenchman, who voted for Le Pen, and the greater will be her supporters. For her, more and more young people, it is more and more shifted to the left, speaking out against big capital, increasingly attracted to its ranks the descendants of migrants – how to stop this locomotive?

And by 2022 the number of supporters of Le Pen, coupled with those who disagree and continue to choose between the two discredited parties, will be sufficient to the leader of the NF received in the second round more than half the votes. The design of the Fifth Republic will survive its 60th anniversary – but then it waits for a major transformation comparable to the one that produced De Gaulle. It will do the President Le Pen – and the more you will try to postpone her presidency, the more the reform will be exposed to the French Republic. Not because of the radicalism of NF – but because of the slew of problems that the current elite is not able to solve.

In Europe for a long time the authorities have no strong and independent politicians is acknowledged by Europeans, and some are even proud of this fact. The era of strong personalities left, Europe unites, builds a complex system of compromises and of consensus between dozens of countries and peoples that De Gaulle no use to us. European bureaucracy runs on common interest – as any strong leader would pull the blanket over their country. The only question is whether the lack of strong personalities is a consequence of the objective movement of European history in the direction of unification, or is it the result of systematic work of integration. Judging by what is happening in France, the lack of strong personalities is a consequence absolutely conscious of negative selection, conduct which is becoming increasingly difficult. The story of the defeat-the victory of marine Le Pen and her National front demonstrates this more than Frank. And for Russia it is extremely important – because an adequate assessment of us going in Europe processes is necessary for predicting the stages of building a new global architecture in which Russia-EU relations is one of the key places.

In the conflict between Russia and Atlanticist Moscow proceeds from the fact that there are inherent contradictions between Anglo-Saxon (American-English) the project of globalization and Russian civilization. Continental Europe, now decorated in the European Union, is an ally, part satellite of the United States. This explains the fact that EU countries are subject to American pressure on the issue of sanctions against Russia – and even a former power “first row”, as France, can not do anything with the bonds of “Atlantic solidarity”. But this configuration is not as stable as it seems – and a number of objective processes in the coming years will make it a series of crushing blows. As a result of which the West may fall apart into two independent unit.

First, European integration in its current form is causing increasing displeasure of the masses. Yes, according to polls, most Europeans like the idea of a United Europe, open borders, common market and family values – but the question of prices is becoming increasingly important. The erosion of Nations, culture, way of life can not like residents of the States of Europe. No matter how taught their liberal multicultural propaganda, no matter how ashamed they are to admit it publicly – no one wants the extinction of his people in the melting pot “of sauropelta”. And when this dissatisfaction with the worsening economic situation, the worsening situation of refugees and migrants in General, and even security problems, the Europeans immediately think that they are primarily Germans, French and Italians. And political forces that put national interests above supranational, get all new and new supporters.

Second, European integration leads to the destruction of nation-States: on the one hand, through their dissolution in the European Union, and on the other – due to the growth of separatist tendencies in the rich regions that have their own national specifics. Given that all major European States (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) the process of formation of a single nationality was only one and a half–two centuries ago, the dismantling of national States can be a rapid and irreversible process. Why should Catalonia be part of Spain, if we are all Europeans and more profitable to join the EU directly? All the talk of Brussels that “we will not let the separatists in the EU”, not to be taken seriously – the current process of European integration just means the education “Europe of regions”. It’s categorically not like the national elites – Yes, globalism globalism, but with the loss of the national state the political elite will be severely weakened.

Thirdly, the imposition of the draft Transatlantic trade and investment partnership with the United States is perceived by many in Europe as a final attempt, now using “economic NATO”, consolidate the status of the Old world as the New Junior partner. And speaking even easier – as the formation of uncontrollable States of the power of transnational elites and their corporations over Europe. Yes, after 1945 Europe was in a subordinate position to the United States – but the formation of a common market in the Anglo-Saxon environment will make the exemption status of a satellite, in principle, impossible.

Fourthly, the policy of Europe being drawn into a global conflict with the Islamic world don’t like an increasing number of Europeans. But to prevent its overgrowth, it is necessary, on the one hand, to limit the migration from Muslim countries, and with another – to get rid of the Atlantic solidarity, under cover of which the United States dragging Europe into the vortex of chaos.

All these challenges are well known to Europeans – and similarly, they know that the present European managerial elite is not able to respond adequately to them. It should be understood that the elite is not unified – in France in the leadership of both right and left has committed different forces, sometimes standing at almost opposite positions. Therefore, coups or revolutions in Europe will not be – but at the critical moment due to a split within the ruling elite (when absolutely pripechet both outside and inside) some of them will proclaim “new course” to use utilitaria mood. And enter into an Alliance with the elite (like Le Pen), which will lead to a reconfiguration of the party first, and then political system.

Ongoing in all European countries, the severe crisis of the party system that emerged after the Second world war – only in Germany it is still mostly the same – a massive process of education from below of new, sometimes radically antielitnye parties, is only part of the process. Education movements, built on a network basis, without leaders and with a collective leadership does not replace the need and in a strong, direct and ideological politicians can become statesmen, reforming their country. The demand in Europe will grow – and they inevitably will come to power.

Given that the European Union rests on the German-French block, a serious internal political changes in one of these two countries will automatically lead at least to a crisis, and as a maximum – to the collapse or reorganization of the entire project of a United Europe. Germany, of course, is the driving force and conductor of the formal European integration – that the Germans only play other people’s music, performing music written by the German composer.

Yes, the Germans are most interested in a United Europe, Yes, they hope (not recognizing, of course, that publicly), that sooner or later they will write music and do her will, and is, backed up, of course, various forms of direct and indirect control over German elites by the Anglo-Saxons, makes Germany a strong element of European integration. But it is the strengthening of the German influence, coupled with the continuation of the Anglo-Saxon manipulation of making the EU project more and more unbearable for France. And the Republic is becoming the weak link of the entire Atlanticist EU – so the ascent of marine Le Pen is deeply symbolic.

Her victory can be delayed but it is predetermined by the course of French and European history.

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