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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Right turn of Europe can only slow down

Presidential elections in Austria commented on the European media in the style of “got off lightly” – they say, “radical nationalists were not”. But in reality the results of the election testify to the fact that those whom liberals call the right-wing, are just one step away from the government – and the current elite can only slightly postpone their victory, but certainly cannot prevent them.

The loser of the second round of the presidential elections Norbert Hofer, the candidate of the Austrian freedom party (fpö), decided not to challenge the outcome of the vote, because I do not see any signs of tampering. Hofer gave Alexander van der Bellen slightly more than 30 thousand votes, which is 0.6 percent – and they lost it after they were counted 760 thousand of votes cast by mail.

“The two-party system – the social Democrats and conservatives, left and right – dies in almost all of Europe”

Meanwhile, opinion polls before the election showed the advantage of Hofer, and near four percent. Postal voting was during the two weeks preceding the election – and one in six of those, who voted chose this method of expression. And considering that pre-vote more rich and “progressive”, their votes decided the outcome of the election – Hofer lost large city, but has received support among workers and in rural areas. Could have a Hofer to steal the victory? Supporters Hofer already noted oddities like individual turnout in 146 percent observed in the city of Waidhofen-an-der-IB, and, of course, all surprised a very large number of early voters – but the overall result does reflect the reality.

And it is that Austria was divided exactly in half – one for migrants, multiculturalism and European integration, and the other against. What Hofer has lost the election, largely on the arm of APS, his party was leading in Austria. Yes, it is still called far-right and radical nationalist – and mostly European and not Austrian media – but it is impossible to marginalize. Hofer became President – but has already declared his intention to become Chancellor, that is to take up real power. While Hofer was only the second person in the party, headed by Heinz-Christian strache – but it is clear that after the current presidential election, his popularity rose sharply, and he really could be a candidate for Chancellor.

In order to form a government, the freedom Party need to start to win the parliamentary elections – to them for another two years. Now polls give her 35 percent, more than the social Democrats and the populists, the two governing parties of post-war Austrian political system. If the last election the fpö came in third (21 per cent), then in 2018 it will be the first.

But in any case she’ll have someone to be blocked – it is clear that the absolute majority it will not gain even under the most favourable circumstances. Its most likely partners can be populists – conventional conservatives and Christian Democrats, due to the fall of trust to which the momentum of APS. And even the social Democrats- after all, the new Chancellor, Christian Kern already stated that the ban on the formation of coalitions with APS should be left in the past.

Indeed, if APS becomes the main party in the country, then try to block it and then at least short-sighted – if in 2018 APS, who received the relative majority of votes, I will try not to let power through the creation of a new coalition of social Democrats and populists, it can lead only to the fact that in the next election it will gain for 50 percent of votes required for the formation of an independent office.

The dying two-party system will still cling to power, and bipartisan elite can find ways of taming the rebels from the APS. In this party situation in Austria is interesting as a barometer of pan-European crisis of political parties. The two-party system – the social Democrats and conservatives, left and right – dies in almost all of Europe. The last Bastion remains Germany – and just to predict the situation in Germany, and related to her the interesting Austria.

Usually, speaking about the success of the APS, noted that the party is eurosceptic, ultra-nationalists and populists – though actually it’s just the usual national oriented moderately conservative party. The problem in today’s European ruling parties, left-wing, right-wing, that in the process of European integration and globalization they finally lost not only their ideology but also national traits.

No talk about the rights and interests of the nation, no traditional values, even any protection of the national interests of the state – because we all go into the bright future “United Europe”. Even recognition by some EU leaders for the failure of the policy of multiculturalism has remained empty words – a course to build a new community remained unchanged.

Last year’s migrant crisis only underscored the helplessness and unnationalistic the main political parties of European countries. Well-trained under Atlantic standard party elite, all these colorless presidents and Prime Ministers, tired of the voters – and they are all in larger quantities begin to vote for those whom mainstream press and elite are called “radicals” and “populists”.

As with right and left wing – those who criticize the European integration, migration policy and the ruling party. Thus the ruling party, the social democratic, conservative, nothing really can not oppose the attacks because they degenerated into a purely bureaucratic lobbying clubs, losing, any feedback on its own citizens.

Now the process of ousting them from power has reached a critical stage, and soon even a “large coalition”, that is, combining the right and left, will not allow them to retain power. To blame they will have only themselves – they have ceased to be a national “social Democrats” and “conservatives”, putting on the first supranational interests. And now their place will be new left and right – those who are now called outcasts and populists. In Austria this will be the Party of freedom, which has good chances the first of the “new parties” to come to power. Way as its counterparts in other European countries too clear about.

And we are talking about Western Europe because Eastern already in many countries ruled by those who are Atlanticists believe the ultra-nationalists. For example, in Hungary and Poland. And in the West the two-party system actually survives in recent years – a change of parties in it will pass through the temporary existence of a three-party system.

She has actually formed in Italy and Spain – “Five stars” and PODEMOS were fixed on the third place of power. It is France – the front national is impossible to put back in the ghetto “the Nazis”, it would be difficult even to prevent marine Le Pen to win the presidential election.

Even in the UK independence Party insistently wedged between the conservatives and labour – and has good prospects, particularly if are coming in a month will win the referendum, supporters of the preservation of the country’s membership in the European Union.

In Germany the social Democrats and the Christian Democrats, which, as in Austria, ruled together in a “Grand coalition”, yet together we can retain power. But every year the situation for them will deteriorate. If the earlier attack had been only the SPD that the left flank was pushing the left and “green”, now losing supporters and the CDU.

She is pushing “Alternative for Germany”. Eurosceptics opposed to an insane immigration policy, yet have the support of about 15 percent of the electorate – and in 2017 will be in the Bundestag. In subsequent years, as the situation of migrants, and discontent with the European integration will work to the growing popularity of “Alternatives” that has a chance to oust the Christian Democrats from a position of “correct” right.

Of course, it is not limited to simply replacing the fake conservatives on these, for example the Austrian populists in the Party of freedom changing the ratio of “right – left”, the crushing inside the camps (as in France on the left flank). For example, the French “national front” combines the right-wing, traditionalist principles with social, if not socialist, ideas in Economics – and all this under the main, antiglobalization sauce.

The political parties of Europe is changing, becomes complicated the main conflict of our days is the confrontation between supporters of preserving the national identity and committed to the idea of a “European nation”, between national and supranational forces. And it is on these lines will be the division of European voters, political parties and elites. Against this background, the disengagement will be a right turn in Europe. It does not stop – it is objective and, therefore, inevitable.

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