The Russian authorities began to use high technology, including Big Data, to predict social and political processes, including the results of the upcoming elections. About this newspaper the VIEW reported close to the presidential administration source. As experts remind, the new methods not only increase operational efficiency, but also improve the accuracy of forecasts and the quality of planning in politics.
To track internal processes and more accurately predict election results (for example, September in the state Duma, the presidential administration (AP) are beginning to introduce technologies for processing large amounts of data, Big Data, said on Tuesday the newspaper VIEW is close to the AP source. “Now here is used not only by opinion polls and expert opinion”, – said the source.
“We are talking about the additional study of public opinion for an even more accurate understanding of what people disturbs. That’s why a deep processing of information in the Internet”
The head of the Duma Committee on information policy Leonid Levin (“Fair Russia”) does not exclude that the use of supercomputers in AP for the analysis of socio-political processes will be successful. Naturally, the aggregation of “big data” it is important not to violate the rights of citizens, said the head of the Committee, but new methods not only increase operational efficiency, but also improve the accuracy of forecasts and the quality of planning.
“I think all the monitoring services, which operate not only in the Kremlin, but all who work in Russia and provide data to state institutions, it is all perfectly legal. We are talking about the additional study of public opinion, for an even more accurate understanding of the overall picture, understanding that people are worried, if carried out deep processing of information in the Internet, on social networks, if everything happens within the law. And this can be treated only in a positive way. The more our government will know about the mood of our citizens and on this basis to take certain decisions, laws, the, I hope, will be better the life of each Russian citizen,” – said the head of Committee of the newspaper VIEW.
Recall the “Big data” (eng. big data in information technology – a series of approaches, tools and methods for processing structured and unstructured data of enormous volume, effective in conditions of continuous growth, the distribution according to numerous computation nodes of the network.
“Anyway, this information is already being used around the world. Facebook recently tested a program that learns the user’s preferences in politics, economy, sports and so on. She begins to show him not only advertising, but also news. In addition to the administration of the social networks, the main processors of steel and other organizations that have the highest traffic. It is search engines, mobile operators, government agencies, ” said Levin. – They also analyze the public mood, handle information in social networks, forums, and get a slice of public opinion.”
However, he feels MP, such a slice is not always relevant. “Because many people do not use the Internet or use, but not leave comments or their personal data. In addition, the problem of numerous bots and other attempts to influence public opinion with the help of robots,” complained Levin.
“Over time, this information will be increasingly handled by, and in processed form it becomes the key. The one who will have the big data, who will be able to process them, sell or use otherwise, one will have the widest potential”, – said the Deputy of the state Duma.
Director of the Russian Association for electronic communications (RAEC) Sergei plugotarenko said that the program is devoid of subjectivity, so it is closer to an exact science. “Thanks to the law of large numbers for the Big Data eliminates any error that may occur. This is math, but it depends entirely on subjective factors – from how the programmer set the task and as he later interpreted the results,” explained Plugotarenko the newspaper VIEW.
Even the science fiction writers of the 60-ies, such as Strugatsky brothers, predicted the advent of the supercomputer so powerful that it can already be called artificial intelligence planetary scale, the expert reminded, and that, in his opinion, the future is now.
“These supercomputers are already able to assess complex events, opinions, and judgments to do on this basis some conclusions, forecasts. In social media we voluntarily – knowingly or not – leave your likes, and ratings of events. The man himself, with his own hands creates an electronic mold of her life in the Network. After all, the Internet with good speed already just sits in my pocket availability. While 90-95 percent of the information in the Network, according to the experts, not processed in any way. It just builds up, and it is not very clear what to do with it. But in this lies a great prospect for all kinds of businesses and different social movements. Business more or less already learned these amounts of information to decipher and at the very least to use for their advertising objectives, to offer consumers a line of necessary goods”, – said the head of the RAEC.
Similarly, he believes that Big Data will be able to use and politics: parties, trade unions, social movements will be able to effectively use the information that the citizens themselves about themselves leave, said the expert.
“Big Data will soon be able to build behavioral models of people, to guess the future behavior of most of them. It’s a big phenomenon. The one who is able with it to work effectively, and for the future. “Old school” sociology, however, has not been canceled yet, and while it often works better with the predictions. Sociology should consider this area, but you have to understand – the value of the processing of a million accounts may sometimes be lower than the data of conventional sociology, but sometimes its value is generally below zero, i.e. it is harmful, confusing”, – stated the expert.
Sociologists believe themselves absolutely natural decision of staff of the presidential administration to use Big Data, and indeed the transition to such technologies is in any case inevitable.
“Well, listen, everything goes to the fact that we are waiting for the Internet of things! What is there treatment of opinions in Big Data! – exclaimed in an interview with the newspaper LOOK member of the Public chamber, Chairman of the Board VTSIOM Leonid Davydov. – This is roughly the same, what will be left to just one Bank, as predicted by the Gref. Smart contract – Bank no. This is the same as the translation of a vote in the Network. As time passes, every citizen will e – mail signature and all, the problem has been resolved! In any ballot and the poll you just click on the button and your authorized opinion falls. Sociology has changed dramatically. This progress is welcome or not, but it will come anyway. It is inevitable,” predicts Davydov.
“However, will remain thin place – the interpretation of the results, it is in any case will remain subjective. Are you going to argue likewise, looking at the same numbers. This will remain unchanged – subjectivity in interpretation,” concluded the sociologist.Related posts: