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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Kiev muddles the results of the negotiations on the OSCE mission in Donbass

The Kremlin denied the statement of the press service of the President of Ukraine that the leaders of the “Normandy Quartet” expressed its support for the police mission of the OSCE in the Donbass. In fact discussed the issue of arms already existing observers. Why Ukrainian representatives punch “police mission” and misinterpret the results of the negotiations?

The leaders of the “Normandy Quartet” to discuss the issue of weapons already existing OSCE monitoring mission in the Donbass, and not the creation of a police mission (as stated by the press service of the President of Ukraine). This explanation on Tuesday gave a press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.

“Poroshenko constantly, as usual, repeats the words “police mission”, but Russia and Germany denied the existence of such a term in negotiations, “Norman Quartet”

We will remind, earlier representatives of Petro Poroshenko, commenting on yesterday’s telephone conversation between the leaders of the “Normandy format” (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine), announced that the negotiators allegedly “expressed support for the deployment of police mission of the OSCE in the Donbass and the beginning of consultations on this issue.”

“It’s monitoring mission in the Donbass. In our understanding this is not a police mission, explained to reporters, Dmitry Peskov. – Indeed, this topic is discussed. It is being discussed is not the first day.” “Theoretically, it (the mission) you can equip, but the composition of the mission (it consists of people who are not soldiers)” raises the question, “how, in fact, they will use these weapons,” Peskov said. “And also quite a number of other questions this raises. So certainly the discussions will continue”, – concluded the press-Secretary of the Russian President.

In the OSCE there is no unity of opinion on the necessity of sending a military mission in the Donbass. On 17 may, the Secretary-General of the international organization Lamberto Zannier said that the appearance of armed officers of the OSCE mission may complicate the situation in Ukraine, unarmed observers to better cope with the task of monitoring the demarcation line of the conflict in the Donbass. However, three days later, the same Zannier said that the OSCE is considering the possibility to send armed police mission to assist in the conduct of the election on controlled militias areas of Donbass, with the consent of all parties.

Kiev has lost in the borders

Petro Poroshenko also drew attention to the need to restore control over the Ukrainian-Russian border”, – stated in the message on the official website of the Ukrainian President. After that, in fact, and should phrase that “the leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia expressed support for the deployment of police mission of the OSCE in the Donbas.”

But, as explained Dmitry Peskov, weapons OSCE observers implies the weapons already existing mission. And it was about “the demarcation line, which runs between the militia forces and the armed forces of Ukraine”, and not about control at the Russian-Ukrainian border. “In Minsk agreements about the control on the border ever written, and the order of the actions prescribed, and the signature of the entire “Norman Quartet,” standing there,” reminded Sands.

The Kremlin also said that the question of giving additional powers of the OSCE monitoring mission in the Donbass must be agreed with representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. “We are talking about the demarcation line. It is important to the consent of the militia, representatives of Donbass. And before to formalize some common understanding, need, probably, to reach an understanding in terms of the configuration of the mission”, – noted in his comments, Dmitry Peskov.

“Regarded as intervention”

In the republics of Donbass the idea of appearing behind the front line of armed people, unrelated to militia, took more than wary.

“Our position remains unchanged: we are against any armed groups in our territory, and we will continue to be regarded as intervention. Why are they here? They will be for the voters to shoot?” – quotes “Interfax” the statement of the Plenipotentiary representative of the Donetsk national Republic in Minsk contact group Denis Pushilin.

As for the election – one of the points stipulated by the agreement Minsk-2, as stated Pushilin, the DNI will be able to provide security and observers, and voters in the elections. “If our internal Affairs are not trusted, there you can put observers. To organize a special group which should be free of weapons”, – said Pushilin.

The DNR representative also noted that Ukraine is “now distorts reality before the meeting and after the meeting “Norman format”, and now the results”. “We agreed that this issue should be discussed in Minsk,” Pushilin said.

“If you would have solved the issue with the mission, there would be something else”

Director of the Kiev Center of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky is convinced that Kiev insists on the emergence of armed OSCE mission not for the purpose of getting an immediate result, but for the next search for a reason not to fulfil its part of the Minsk agreements.

“It is clear that the Minsk format, which wants to Poroshenko, will not. And if so, then he has an excuse: “don’t agree? So, we won’t do their part…” And if the issue was resolved this mission, then there would be something else, not to perform. For the current Kiev leadership is totally unacceptable implementation of the Minsk agreements, so it will be searched for any reason,” Pogrebinsky said the newspaper VIEW.

As for the idea of weapons of this monitoring mission, the analyst believes such a proposal is correct, but with restrictions. According to Pogrebinsky, should afford protection for members of the mission on the demarcation line. “As I understand it, it is in principle supported by Putin (the President of Russia said during his recent straight line). With regard to security during the elections, as evidenced by the current head of the OSCE mission, I do not see any problem, to the sites together with representatives of DND and LNR was the OSCE representative to the armed guard. Have to agree with it. Why? Have to agree on everything that leaves control in the hands of the militia, to secure honest elections”, – said the analyst.

According to him, fair elections will lead to the fact that will be elected by the people, protecting the interests of the local population. “And this means that there will be elected people who are bad for Kiev. But if it is to legitimize, that is, if these elections will be recognized valid, and Europe will be forced to recognize them, like Kiev, though I don’t believe that, then it qualitatively changes the situation. Then it will be impossible to say that this aggression of Moscow. It will be understood that it is a conflict of one part of Ukraine on the other. And this does not want to admit Poroshenko and the current government team”, – said Mikhail Pogrebinsky.

“The gun will shoot”

In turn, the Director of the Center for Eurasian studies Vladimir Kornilov political scientist recalled that the monitoring mission of the OSCE was subjected to criticism regarding its position closing the eyes to the mass of cases of attacks on the West. However, another mission there, and “sometimes the OSCE mission really served as a deterrent to Ukrainian fighters”. For example, when the representatives of the mission appeared in the area of Shirokino, attacks of this place was stopped.

“Apparently, Russia has agreed on a weapons mission. This is clearly said Vladimir Putin… But there are serious discrepancies, what are the functions of these armed men. Poroshenko constantly, as usual, repeats the words “police mission”, while we hear that Russia and Germany denied the existence of such a term in negotiations, “Norman Quartet”. That is, no one discusses police functions of the mission, except Poroshenko,” – said Kornilov newspaper VIEW.

He considers the threat to arm the OSCE representatives in the area of armed conflict. “Just there on the wall will be a gun, then sooner or later it must shoot. Sooner or later, these armed people will have to respond to the fire – no matter which side and what provocateurs outdoor. And it would mean the involvement of foreign nationals, primarily citizens of the EU, in this armed conflict. The consequences can be very severe,” warns the analyst.

He also pointed to the problem of interpretation, particularly around the line of contact between the parties. In Russia, for example, such line is considered contact fighters DNR and LC on one side and Ukrainian forces on the other. “And Poroshenko, speaking constantly on the frontline, spoke about the Russian-Ukrainian border, respectively, between the DNI and Russia,” Kornilov said.

Pre-election maneuvers

While the “Normandy format” discusses the status of observers, the observers of the Special mission monitoringovaja misleading commit a clear violation of the Minsk agreements.

SMM found in areas controlled by Ukrainian security forces, “four missile systems “earth – air” (9K35 “Strela-10”, 120 mm) in the village Bottom (54 km North-West of Luhansk) and one missile system “earth – air” (SA-8 “OSA”, 120 mm) near the settlement Dmitrovka (55 km South-West of Donetsk)”, – quotes RIA “news” report for may 22, circulated on Tuesday, a monitoring mission.

The OSCE special monitoring mission also noted the concentration of military equipment on the part of the militia of Donbass.

“In areas controlled by the DNI… the SMM is again recorded eight towed howitzers (D-30, 122 mm), nine mortars (PM-38, 120mm), nine reactive systems of volley fire (MLRS; BM-21 “Grad”, 122-mm), eight anti-tank guns (MT-12 “rapier”, 100 mm), 11 self-propelled howitzers (2S1, Gvozdika 122 mm) for the first time and one additional self-propelled howitzer (2S1, Gvozdika, 122mm) and five additional towed howitzers (D-30, 122 mm)”, – informed the SMM.

At the same time the representative of the DNI, Deputy commander of the operational command of Donetsk Edward Basurin reported that the situation on the contact line in the Donbass deteriorated sharply, the Ukrainian security forces fired nearly 600 missiles on the territory of the Republic for the past days. Two civilians were injured, 15 buildings damaged.

Intelligence DNI, according to Eduard Basurin, captures the movement of security forces at the contact line, watching sniper fire from the territory controlled by Kiev; the Ukrainian military are demining of minefields with the aim of supplying equipment. In turn, the official representative of the people’s militia Luhansk national Republic Andrey Marochko reported that the Ukrainian security forces controlled the territory of Stanichno-the Lugansk area to the line of contact, “came a combined regiment of the Ukrainian volunteer corps (DUK), the “Right sector*” in the amount of up to 1 thousand personnel”.

The Plenipotentiary representative of the DND in Minsk contact group Denis Putilin believes that Kyiv is doing everything to local elections in the Donbass, the campaign for the preparations for which have already begun, did not take place. “But there is a probability that the Americans and the Europeans will be able to put pressure on Kiev”, – said Pushilin.

* Organization, in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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