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Thursday, October 27, 2016

In our Harbor not cruise ships

Recently I had the opportunity to socialize with successful people from USA, England, Canada, Australia, who sailed on Board of the cruise liner “crystal serenity” to explore the glaciers of Alaska. Because their intellectual level was very high — dosug was appropriate. For example, they participated in the online voting on topical geopolitical issues. For example, the West should toughen a policy of containment against Russia in connection with events in Ukraine or try to negotiate with it? Each of the five guest speakers were given one minute to state their position. The view of the audience was measured before and after discussion. Initially, 70% voted for deterrence and 15% for search compromise. The first speaker was Stanford University Professor David Davenport, who spoke about the increasing aggressiveness of Russia and the need to limit its expansion. I honestly made a presentation on the precepts of the famous cartoon: guys, let’s live together. But had to quickly change the tone, to explain to the audience the views of 85% of my countrymen — those who support the Kremlin believes that Russia is trying to corner, to weaken that its interests are ignored. The most offensive to them precedent, when with their position and feelings were not considered, — the separation of Kosovo from Orthodox Serbia fraternal and transfer it to the Muslim Albanians. The most economically painful — the overthrow of the regimes of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi in spite of all the objections of Moscow, which had a privileged position in Iraq and Libya. And it would be absolutely intolerable Ukraine’s accession to NATO, which is perceived as a direct threat to the security of the country. Therefore, the Crimea, Donetsk is the protection of national interests remained at the disposal of the Kremlin means, though not the most graceful.

Former British Ambassador to Syria Adrian Singhal and the major philosopher from South Africa Robert Schreyer drew attention to the absence of serious grounds for the spread of the conflict and urged not to dramatize the situation. The last was General Anthony Zini, the former commander of the US Marines, now working on his doctoral dissertation at the Catholic University. According to him, the current tension could not be, if NATO after 1991 have not started to expand to Russia’s borders. Because the admission of such problem in many ways, countries like Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary… was not able to strengthen the military potential of the Alliance, the Kremlin regarded this expansion exclusively as an instrument of pressure. In reality, she gave a powerful impetus to the rise of Russian nationalism, which determines, according to Zini, President Putin’s policy. The secondary voting 78% in favor of cooperation with Russia and only 12% for deterrence. Of course, a crucial role is played by authority and analytical abilities of four-star General Zini and openness is highly educated public.

This episode taught me optimism, hope that it will be possible to jump out of the rut: they give us Magnitsky act, we give them the exposure of Edward Snowden, they are Panamanian dossier, we — Russia Today.

However, there is another track, which, too, would like to get out. Our ship was about to come to Petropavlovsk, from which passengers bound high expectations. I also have never been to Kamchatka, but I’ve heard from those who were lucky enough to go there, its unique beauty. I told new acquaintances that the Russian President attaches great importance to accelerated development of the region and the government has developed a program to encourage investment activity. When all had gathered for the landing on shore, the captain on the radio announced that the port authority failed to provide pierce and offered to move with boats on swinging the pontoons, too risky for the age of the passengers. After standing for a day on the roads, the coolest ship in the world empty-handed sailed to the glaciers of Alaska.

I admit at once: I know the reason why are unable to provide the necessary safe pier. But to bring a version of the Anglo-Saxons can. There were only two. First: it failed was organized by the security forces from the nearby base of nuclear submarines. Second: the chief port so extorted a bribe from the captain. Naturally, and asked my opinion. To me both hypotheses seemed unlikely. Permission for such an excursion in Petropavlovsk probably have agreed in Moscow in advance. And no initiative and improvisation to engage on the ground in such a situation will not. Even more absurd to suspect some of our corrupt officials in ignorance of who can and who cannot take a bribe. From the point of view of the theory of probability of evil intent, probably, was not in sight. That’s probably just a glitch at the level of all links of the port, which resulted in the local museums and sellers of Handicrafts have lost a very large income, and region as potential investors.

Notably, none of the passengers came up with the idea of a possible fault of the staff “crystal serenity”. So carefully and faithfully they were selected, trained, educated. The ship not only were not weaknesses, there’s even better, it seems, was nothing.

The late Soviet Union, to paraphrase a famous saying of Lenin, was described as follows: “Soviet power plus all to the bulb”. Since the motivation for the conscientious performance of their duties became even less. Native perhaps throughout increased accurate expression of today’s attitude: “well, to hell with them.” However, this attitude is not only there can be no creation, but also a little bit good perception of us in the world.

Of course, Russia will not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO. But think about why the local elites want the European Union? Moscow in different forms gave them at least ten times more dollars than the entire West. Ukrainian products have here are the usual broad market, not comparable with niches in the EU. Alluding to the intrigues of the American special services, and seduced the elite of the Square. But no amount of technology “color revolutions” are not even remotely close to the capabilities of our agents in the sister Republic. In short, even if rotten, corrupt Ukrainian elite gate from us a nose, so instead of the hell we have to put something else. It is much more attractive.

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