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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Bankers expect courage from the Bank of Russia

The mortgage market froze in anticipation of lowering the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Only in this case it is possible to count on reduction in price of mortgage loans, the weighted average rate which is now over 12%.

photo: Natalia Muslinkina

Neither good nor bad

According to the Deputy Chairman of the Bank “DeltaCredit” Irina Aslanova, the weighted average interest rate on the mortgage market in the first quarter of 2016 made up of 12.47% per annum, and in February of this value was 12.1% and this figure was the lowest since April 2014.

Now in the mortgage portfolios of Russian credit institutions reigns a mortgage gosupravleniem (this spring, was extended the benefit programs of state support for the mortgage sector): from Bank to Bank, the share of mortgages with state support ranging from 20% to 85%. However, expect to improve the conditions of the program for consumers not necessary: for the banks the price tag soared, therefore cheaper than 12% preferential loans for housing are not sold almost anywhere.

The only chance for the borrower to get a definite bet — to take part in special programs of banks and developers. So, says Director of business development in the Moscow region Svyaz-Bank Marina Tsaregorodtseva, for such programs in different Russian regions can receive a loan under 7,4–9% per annum.

But such programs are the exception to the rule. Over the past few months mortgage rates were established: for example, products at a reduced program cost of 11.5–12% classical mortgage loans — 13-15%. “Developers and banks is driving demand, launching common programs getting special treatment, but their share in total sales is small. Still, the situation in the mortgage market and in the construction sector depends on the existence of state support. And although banks reduce interest rates on their own programs, the rate on them is higher than for the state program”, — noted the Director of Department of retail credit products SMP Bank Natalia konyahina.

Will not be cheaper

Bankers admit that now the possibility of cheaper mortgage products largely depends on policy of the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina in relation to the key rate. For two consecutive sessions, market participants expect lower this rate the mega-regulator, but until the happy event had not occurred. Therefore, to significantly lower the operating price tags does not work. As the Vice-President of Bank “Opening” Anna Yudina, a further change of rates depends on the possible change in the key rate and the cost of funds. In a press-service VTB 24 said that in the short term rate changes is not planned: “the Dynamics of mortgage rates will depend on the selected controller policy and the steps for changing the key rate”.

If to speak about concrete calculations, the situation has not changed. To buy two-bedroom apartments cost from 3 to 15 million roubles in Moscow in the mortgage for a period of 15 years and an initial payment of 20% of the cost of a residential facility, the borrower must have a total household income of 100 to 180 thousand rubles, annuity payment, respectively, will be from 50 to 110 thousand rubles per month, and the rate — 12-14% per annum.

Most bankers said that the portrait of the borrower overall has not changed, although some financial institutions pay attention to some metamorphosis. So, says Irina Aslanov, over the last decade, the average age of borrowers has decreased from 44 to 34 years. Often have to take out a mortgage families with children in 2015, 47% of borrowers of the credit institution were minors, and in 2009-m — only 14%. Basically the average for the banking system a typical subprime borrower is a person in the age 35-40 years, family with a stable official income, often, — the employee of budgetary sphere.

Financiers point out that lenders have become slightly more liberal attitude to applicants: for example, in rare cases it is possible to find the mortgage in the same document, some have resumed lending to individual entrepreneurs and business owners. However, the rigor in the evaluation of the unstable economy continues to be one of the key principles of lending for house purchase: with the greatest hunting such loans bankers give zarplatniki as the most predictable category of customers.

The rapid development of the segment neither in this nor in the next year, market players do not expect. So, Aslanov expects by the end of 2016, the increase in the amount of 3% relative to the year 2015. And although almost all respondents “EV” experts expect a gradual increase in mortgages without state subsidies and loans to purchase second homes, according to Konyahina, to return to the previous volumes in the niche resale in the near future can not count.

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