By the will of Poroshenko, the Minsk process has reached a dead end from which escape is more and more difficult. It came to the actual sabotage — after a representative of Ukraine (Roman Immortal) negotiating group left the other — the former Secretary of national defense and security Volodymyr Horbulin. Thus, even the continuation of the negotiations, and without that purely formal, is under threat. Against this background, louder sound in Kiev statements “hawks” about the need to return Donbas by force and “restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine” militarily. A few months ago, the same Horbulin admitted such a development not only in respect of Donbass and Crimea. Despite the fact that the “winning” experience (Ilovaysk, Debaltsevo) in Kiev the strategy is not to occupy, try to analyze the consequences of a possible aggression, Poroshenko against the people’s republics.
Apparently, in the case of practical implementation of the Kiev military scenario focuses on a lightning campaign in the spirit of the 6-day war Israel 1967 or Croatian operation Storm of 1995. Then, it is worth Recalling, 200-strong Croatian army for 5 days evicted proportionate to the number of Serbs from the Republic of Serbian Krajina, from their ancestral territories. Under this plan the rapidity of the operation, in which the account goes on the clock, will be one of the key contributors to its success. Hit Donetsk and Lugansk will be accompanied by not less but maybe even more large scale military maneuvers in order to cut off pockets of resistance from the border with Russia. And, of course, the main thing — it will be done at a time when for whatever reasons, Moscow will be difficult to demonstrate immediate response. In terms of the calendar of upcoming events better time than the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, opening in late July.
On the other hand, repeatedly voiced by the Ukrainian President the invitation of the “international military missions” in the Donbass can also achieve your goal. And if the OSCE is still not solved for Poroshenko to change its own Charter, to create an armed mission and send it to the “hot spot” which involves a threat to the lives of its employees, the Obama administration on the decline of his powers, may and to respond to the invitation of Kiev. In this case any provocation on the frontline is already deadly for the preservation of peace in the region and could entail the beginning of a military campaign.
In this situation, will act in Moscow? Based on the experience of the Georgian aggression 08.08.08 that happened right on the opening day of the Beijing Olympics, we should expect a rapid response — at least technically it will be much easier than in tight with the Russian side of the mountainous terrain of South Ossetia. At the same time, the speed of reaction, of course, will depend on the possible consequences of open assistance to the people’s republics of Donbass with the official Moscow. (And Moscow will have to act decisively.)
That to of consequences from the West, then, no matter how it tried to hide, that this issue will be key in the decision. It is no secret that the Minsk agreements are considered by Europe and the United States as a carrot hanging in front of Moscow in a perspective view the lifting of sanctions, and there is no reason to believe that this approach will change in the near future. In turn, the Kremlin perceives them as the key to the situation in Ukraine — indeed, required but not yet implemented, the constitutional reform aims to establish a precedent of autonomy with special status in calling itself a unitary country. At the same time we must understand that sanctions in themselves, as the question of their possible cancellation, in no less (if not more) degree relate to the field of psychosomatics power than to the real problems of the domestic economy. Let me explain: the representatives of authorities of different levels during the “fat years” Putin’s stability is used organically to perceive himself in Europe. Any confrontation with Europe in this context is perceived as something absolutely artificial and imposed — therefore, as something necessary as soon as possible to get rid of. With the expectation of it two years ago and to impose sanctions. But — thanks to history — national identity was more expensive. So, as unpleasant (primarily purely emotional) was not, for the lifting of sanctions, the Russian government will not sacrifice national interests. Otherwise it does not understand the people, and it will lose its stable support in the election. This is one of the few sociological virtues of democracy. Therefore, a pragmatic calculation of the authors of the sanctions on the natural tendency of senior Russian officials to European comfort, by and large, is not justified. Otherwise I would have long been over Donbass waving yellow-Blakytny flag.
In the case of Russian aggression the Ukrainian response would be immediate. Not in the form of “North winds” and humanitarian convoys, and in the immediate appearance of the Russian army, which will stop only on orders. Naturally, this will cause a sharp escalation of tensions in our relations with the West — this will be the calculation of the authors of provocation. After all, in this July automatic renewal of sanctions against our country would be impossible. And in the future January, based on an assessment of the current problems between the Old and the New world, the Washington-Brussels consensus with the newly elected American President and is dubious.
Another question will decide whether the US and NATO for military aid to Kyiv in this case? There are serious grounds to believe that at the moment, except for the supply of equipment and weapons, NATO will not go for surgery assistance to Ukraine mobilized its own army. Because war with Russia over Ukraine is at least silly. And no, the Bundeswehr will not approve such plans. Except that the advertised combined Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian regiment will perform somewhere near Kiev. In the combat “power” of the Ukrainian army, in turn, almost no doubt.
The above scenario is completely fit into the strategy of “containment of Russia”, which was used by the ideologists of the White house for the past 15 years. Therefore, its probability can be assessed as relatively high. We do our part you need to just be ready for it. To avoid unnecessary tantrums.
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