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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

The experts found the “nonsense” in the new program of Volodymyr Groysman


In Ukraine and outside of it discuss the programme of action presented by Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman. His predecessor Nikolai Azarov told the newspaper OPINION that the document contains as “sensible things”, and complete nonsense, like the promises of the average salary in 1000 euros. Common assessment are as follows: this program, like many others, is unlikely to be implemented.

Experts discussed on Friday published on the eve of the draft programme of the new Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. As warned appointed on 14 April for the post of the Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman, the approval of the document in Parliament is scheduled for may 26.

“With all of the lustration remained there still frames. I even recognize the style of who wrote it. Is common sense”

As said on the eve of Ukrainian Internet newspaper “Business capital”, among the government goals to enter the top 20 leading countries of the world in two years. In addition, the Prime Minister promised the Ukrainians average earnings in 1000 euros. “If we take our European partners, we see that the average wage in these countries, such as Poland or Slovakia, equal to approximately 1 thousand euros, when the Ukraine is about 150-170 euros, – said Vladimir Groisman. – We understand that having a huge potential, natural resources, with the right, quality management can Ukraine achieve these targets, and this will mean that we can become competitive and people will start to get opportunities for quality of life.”

The intention to enter the top twenty of the world for two years – it’s just fantastic, said the predecessor of Groisman as Prime Minister Mykola Azarov in an interview to the newspaper VIEW.

“He also promises that soon the average wage will reach thousands of euros. This is a crazy idea designed for the fools. During the Maidan they also promised European salaries and pensions”. That’s two and a half years they are at the helm, and the salary dropped from 500 euros to 150 euros. Pensions from two hundred to 30-40. Inflation is wild. Do the math – multiply a thousand euros to 15 million working population. Will see that such earnings need to have a GDP 10 times more than now. So what he plans growth rate of GDP? 100 percent a year? – rhetorically asked the former Prime Minister. – This nonsense I don’t even want to comment.”

To stabilize the “ruins”

However, Azarov admitted that the draft contained a perfectly reasonable thesis. “Such programs, I probably got a dozen in my life read. Overall – this is a set of correct words. Wrote this program, it is likely that the ministries and departments. With all the lustration remained there still frames. I even recognize the style of who wrote it. There is common sense. But what’s missing? No, first of all, the anti-crisis program. Ukraine’s economy has lost over two years 30-35 percent of their GDP. It is very much. There is such a thing as critical destruction, as the metal has a fatigue level, after which the metal is destroyed, and here,” said the ex-Premier.

“If they want to begin to stabilize the ruins, nothing good will come of it. This document should begin with the anti-crisis measures. There should be the recovery of the economy, a competent monetary policy, the use of financial resources which are available or provided. But this project is absolutely not specified the sources of content. Here, for example, “to create innovation centers”. But at what expense? What will they do? Or “until the 19th of the year to move on medical insurance”. Theoretically correct. But what about medical insurance, you can talk with an average salary of 150 euros. From this salary should be deducted the cost of utilities and basic food. What will be left? If a person lives below the poverty line, and pensioners are living on average to retire at 30-40 euros a month, about any insurance payments we can talk?” perplexed, the former head of the government.

A few years ago, before him stood the question of the transition to insurance medicine, says Azarov. “The average salary then was close to 500 euros per month, so for a moment. And when we calculated, it is concluded that with such level of incomes the transition to insurance medicine inappropriate. Significant resources had to be spent on bringing more and the medicine in order,” – said the former Prime Minister.

“I could analyze each item. Written the right words, and the mechanism of their realization. With GDP of about $ 70 billion, with budget revenues of about 20 billion dollars to build such castles in the air? Unreal. Someone this program will read, put on the shelf and this is where it will end”, – said Azarov.

Military field budget

As for the war in the Donbass, Groisman called preparing for the reintegration of this region, and until then to take the Donetsk refugees on road construction. “We must remember that we have a 1700 thousand temporarily displaced persons who were forced at gunpoint to leave their homes”, – said the head of the Cabinet. According to him, one of the options to ensure that migrants work and stimulate the economy may be the restoration and construction of new roads.

The Director of the Kyiv center of political marketing Vasily Stoyakin believes that the authors of this idea, read books about the great depression, in particular about how the unemployed arranged for the construction of roads in 30-e years, and in Nazi Germany, and democratic in the United States under Roosevelt, and in other countries.

“Nothing wrong with that. And in fact the money is you can find, – the economist said the newspaper VIEW. – There are the same issues of offshore business, a lot of criminal loopholes that worsen the condition of the state budget. The prevention of these loopholes can have a considerable financial resource. When the political will exists to implement such projects possible”. But so far no government has demonstrated the ability to solve those issues, says Stoyakin.

I read in my youth “Utopia”

In contrast to Stoyakin, Director of the Ukrainian Institute of society transformation Oleg Soskin suggested that the authors of the idea of refugees from the Donbass read in my youth “Utopia”, Campanella or a novel Chernyshevsky “What to do?”

“There are immigrants and some part of them could build highways. But required huge money, very good technical features, with enormous experience in multinational companies. In Ukraine now there are no such companies. It is clear that highways should be paid. They can be build when the country will be a stable monetary unit. When the authorities won’t stand clan-oligarchic groups, like the group of PoroshenkoYatsenyuk – Groisman”, – said Soskin newspaper VIEW.

Questioned the economist and a clause stating that Ukraine will be able to achieve full energy independence through private gas production. “Gas from Russia, of course, no one will take. Now we produced 20 billion, and could and 25 billion to produce. But in principle, it is necessary to reduce gas consumption. To do this, for example, put all the tubes in the counters to begin with, especially on major highways. They are not there. It is inexpensive, but then the gas can’t be stealing in the country and to sell him contraband. So this is also false the item,” – said Soskin.

Stoyakin not like the structure of the project. “It begins with the reform of the security system, then – constitutional reform, then the restoration of territorial integrity. In General, issues of war and peace, law enforcement agencies and the state system generally devoted almost half of the document. The impression that the Cabinet is going to do if not war, then, first of all, the reform of the power component, the judicial system, to which it actually has no relationship at all. The economy and different social things is concerned only with the remaining items. Overall, nothing interesting, except for the transition to European standards, I have not noticed”, – said Stoyakin.

There are points in the project, which sound ominous, he said. “For example, let’s privatize all the coal mines unprofitable and have closed. Guys, you have constant crisis with energy, you do not have enough coal, and you, instead of to improve this sector, I propose to privatize everything”. In agriculture it is assumed to enter the land market, the expert said, but for Stoyakina clear that the government Groisman will be here to act in the interests of big capital.

The decree on the ground is fraught with “revolution

“Under Brezhnev with the filing by American billionaire hammer was arranged for the Odessa port plant, was installed to the pipeline Togliatti – it goes on liquid ammonia. So they now also want this plant to sell – said Soskin. – Moreover, the plant is liquid, it makes a big profit. And they want to sell it for only 500 million dollars. It is generally impossible to privatize, it is a strategic and very dangerous object. There need a very high level of security – if a pipe burst, a cloud of ammonia, ammonia will cover a huge area and everyone will die.

Soskin does not consider Groisman experienced Manager, albeit one for a long time and was the mayor of Vinnitsa. “What’s a winery to lead? If all the flows have already been established, people in all diagrams supplied. Trays, he led the Pope on the market. There great mind is not necessary. Illiterate people. Diletanty. They know neither macroeconomics nor microeconomics”, – the expert believes.

“The IMF demands more to power and started to sell agricultural land, otherwise he will not give loans. If they start doing it, everything will end with a new revolution, but it will be anti-oligarchic revolution,” predicts Soskin, adding that in this case, Groisman risk of suffering one of the first.

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