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Friday, October 21, 2016

What is stopping the Communists take second place in the elections to the state Duma

Ahead of the Duma election came the obvious question: for whom to vote those who disagree with the party in power? And such should be not only in fact but also under the law of the Russian Federation: if everyone wants to vote only for one party, the election simply will not happen, because the system we have, under the Constitution, multi-party. And public opinion polls show that the desire to vote for some other party in society is. Nuclear electorate “United Russia” — about 54% of the citizens who want to come to the polls. And the rest are ready to give their votes to others. The second party following the results of voting may become the Communist party, if will overcome the split in its ranks. Let’s talk about this split.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov and his associates tried to press repeatedly, and often fork occurred between the Secretary General and head of the Moscow city party Committee. Now it is headed by Valery Rashkin. Which, by the way, the Zyuganov and put it on this post after the riot, CIM, headed by the previous head.

Now, back to statistics. The rating of the Communist party last year is steadily growing. In the beginning of the year, wishing to vote for this party was 10% of the number of voters, now they have 15% and, under forecasts of experts, after the beginning of the campaign it can grow up to 25%.

The main resource for the growth of the rating of the Communist party is a huge mass of undecided voters. They are in the period of each election campaign are changing their sympathy. This is especially true Muscovites. It is a potential millions of votes. Moreover, the opposition votes. Muscovites, even if they are basically happy with the power, will always look for an alternative.

The Communist party is trying to attract Muscovites to his side. This party is most often holds mass rallies, criticizing the government. And such shares held in the capital more than in all other regions. But Moscow Communists led by Valery Rashkin can make a very big mistake. They are trying to flirt with “bellantonio”. And is flirting a while ago has already led to the actual collapse of one of the parliamentary parties.

Valery Rashkin put forward on elections on one-mandatory district at Lublin, but he is also in charge of the election campaign in the capital as a whole. And he decided to bring in the support group of the Moscow city Communist party Alexei Navalny. Urban party and the Department plans to invite to participate in the debates and primaries, which the Communists will hold in Moscow, a number of the opposition is not red orientation, among which, in addition to Navalny, Ilya Yashin, Dmitry Gudkov, Maxim Katz… the Bloc of Communists and “belolentochnikov” Rashkin poetically dubbed the “headquarters of the revolution”, which aims to create the front For change.”

That’s just like if Communist voters, who traditionally Patriotic, the presence in the party lists of people who, to put it mildly, are not associated with the patriots?

We have, incidentally, the elections will go two of the Communist party. The second — “Communists of Russia” — led by Maxim suraykin, who staged a rebellion against Zyuganov at the time. But the game he and Rashkin did not approve.

— I understand that the Communist party is forced to chase the modern, advanced people supporting the ideas of the opposition — said suraykin “MK”. — But I think “orange” will not help Rashkin, and only repel voters from him. You need to understand that the Communists are first and foremost patriots and statesmen. A “belolentochniki” not for Russia, they want not prosperity, but disaster in Russia, and cooperation with them will lead to a drop in the popularity of the Communist party. The strange talks between the Moscow city Committee of the Communist party and the Bulk already undermined the credibility of our fraternal Communist party from the patriots.

Words Suraykina confirms dry statistics. Rashkin personal rating lower than the rating of the Communist party. Although it’s traditionally autocratic party, it should be the other way around.

The PR campaign Rashkin with “bellantonio” damages the party as a whole, but does not increase its support of the Moscow organization. The split would be understandable if Rashkin wanted to conquer his personal popularity at the expense of the provincial popularity of the Communists. But it does not reach this goal. Incomprehensible and position of Zyuganov, who shows weakness. Zyuganov himself has asked for “Congress of people’s deputies of Moscow” Rashkin and his friends liberal to shun leprosy.” And Vaska listens, Yes eats. And Zyuganov does absolutely no conclusions. He is afraid to change horses in midstream. And turns a blind eye to the actual split in the party.

Rashkin main problem is inconsistency. Being “red”, he flirts with the “white” (or “orange” are one and the same). With the start of the current campaign, he actively abuses of the State Duma, while modestly holding back, that itself in the Duma since 1999, and special activity (to alter it for the better) are not distinguished.

All of these errors led not only to low rating Rashkin (it’s fixable), but to its very high anti-rating, which is much worse: 20 percent of Communists did not stand. Rashkin dragged down the rating of the party in Moscow that the Communists now concede the liberal democratic party. It is not excluded that personal disapproval Rashkin will lead to the fact that the Communist party will receive in Moscow is much less the result of the election than the pollsters expect.

Fork in chess is when your opponent put you in a situation that, as you go, one of your figures will be a bit. And Rashkin put the fork in his own party. Zyuganov because it does not clean for obvious reasons. Probably, he feared that the change of the head of the MGK during the election period will not work as well. But if Rashkin leave, it will be even worse…

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