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Sunday, December 4, 2016

Karabakh is doomed to the fate of Donbass


In the night of Tuesday in Vienna ended with a meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, which was the first after the “four day war” between Baku and Stepanakert in early April. As a result of negotiations the parties agreed to expand the powers of the OSCE observation mission to try to prevent re-escalation of the conflict and agreed on the need to renew efforts to find missing.


photo: AP

The Armenian side has long offered to withdraw from the line of contact snipers and begin a thorough investigation of each case of violation of the truce. With the support of Russia the document was developed in 2011, but then Azerbaijan refused to sign him, considering that Armenia uses it to their advantage.

Apparently, the military defeat, which Baku has suffered as a result of sudden attack on the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh, and the lack of international support in this regard made him reconsider his attitude towards demilitarization. As stated in the statement of the OSCE Minsk group, under whose auspices was held the meeting of Sargsyan and Aliyev, “the presidents reaffirmed their commitment to a peaceful settlement of the conflict”.

It is one thing to announce intent, and quite another to take concrete action. On the morning of may 17 in Stepanakert said the Azerbaijani army all night shelled the self-proclaimed Republic, resulting in the death of one Karabakh soldier. That same night, during the shelling killed one Azerbaijani soldier, said in Baku. Now no investigation of this matter can not be, because the extension of the OSCE mandate should occur only on the results of the next meeting between Sargsyan and Aliyev, the date which they will announce in June. In the meantime, the Karabakh should be content with what we have: a few days before the shelling, the members of the observation mission stated that the parties to the conflict threw their weapons at a safe distance.

However, there is no guarantee that the OSCE observers will help to establish peace in the region. As you know, over the past two years, the OSCE mission in Donbas several times “amplified” by increasing and kalisto observers, and their technical equipment. But in Kiev, DNR and LC is almost not affected. How to shoot, and shoot daily.

In this regard, has repeatedly raised the topic of the introduction in the disputed regions of the peacekeeping force instead of or in addition to the observers. From Armenia for this, in particular, Sargsyan expressed, but acts against Aliyev.

“MK” has found out from the experts how successful you can consider the current talks in Vienna:

Vladimir NOVIKOV, senior researcher of Institute socially-political researches of the black sea countries:

– Maybe this meeting will help for some foreseeable future to ease tensions in the region and create a more effective system of monitoring the maintenance of the armistice. But as long as Armenians and Azerbaijanis will continue to be bitter enemies, political settlement does not happen, which means another round of violence is inevitable.

Sergey MINASYAN, Deputy head of the Caucasus Institute:

– After the April aggression of Azerbaijan everyone was waiting for the response of the Minsk group, and here she came. Under pressure from Russia, France and the United States Baku was forced to agree to increase the powers and numbers of observers, which until now was only 6 people. It is hoped that in the future the members of the Minsk group, although not able to guarantee the full observance of the truce would be based on the investigation of the OSCE and clearly name the perpetrator of the violations. As for peacekeepers, they need to enter only after will be achieved political settlement of the situation in order to finally consolidate the success.

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