On the world oil market is growing again in price: the price of a barrel reached $50. On the eve of the holiday season increased demand for fuel, and the number of working drilling rigs in the US decreased. According to analysts, soon after the “barrel” of oil will give $76.
The optimism of those who continue to believe in the success of commodity market, were added to the forecast of analysts of one of the largest investment banks — Goldman Sachs. They talked about several positive for such confidence factors.
First, according to statistics, the number of drilling rigs in the United States at the end of last week fell by 9 units and amounted to 406 units. In annual terms, the figure fell to 482 units, or 54.3%.
Second, the financial house predicts in the second quarter of 2016, the supply gap of crude oil. Goldman Sachs expects the deficit at the level of 71 thousand barrels per day with subsequent increase up to 417 thousand “barrels”. The peak shortage will be in the fourth quarter.
The Bank believes that the lack of supply will be triggered by the growth of demand with the General decline of oil production. This year, the demand for “black gold” is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day.
About the same give forecasts of OPEC, which implies an increase of imports by 1.2 million barrels a day. Now the overabundance of “black gold” on the market is estimated from 1,5 million to 3 million “barrels”. To cope with the difference between demand and supply will be in the coming months.
It’s not that the production in the US falling, and the demand of such major consumers as China and India, is growing. Iran, which threatened to increase the production and export of oil up to the level that he was prior to the introduction of Western sanctions, have already overcome this threshold. According to the International energy Agency, oil production Tehran in April amounted to 3.56 million barrels. This record figure was recorded in November 2011, two months before the country imposed an oil embargo. Oil exports of Iran also approached the pre-sanctions level, an increase of more than 40%.
More oil to expect from Iran is not worth it. In this case, the major players, OPEC, mainly Saudi Arabia, unable to support the proposal of Russia and other producing countries for freezing of raw material production at the January level.
Possible. New Custody negotiations with independent producers shall be held not later than October (tentative date for the summit scheduled for may and June). Unlike meeting in Doha (she was held on 17 April and ended in failure because of the reluctance of Riyadh to curtail production) new round table promises to lead to compromise.
There are other promising factors. So, China has increased its purchase of oil of the same in Iraq on a monthly basis, by 57%, exceeding the level of 800 thousand barrels per day. Deliveries to Europe increased from Iran more than doubled to 500 thousand barrels in day. The largest customers were the French and the Turks. They are forced to look for oil on the side, as the supply of cheap raw materials from the banned in Russia and other countries ISIS has decreased significantly.
Of course, the increase in exports is partly due to Iran a shipment that did not have time to implement earlier. Certain volumes stored on tankers.
But what’s more, it produces Tehran now, it is unlikely he will be able to produce. During the term of the sanctions, Iran has lost access to modern technology that gives no chance to increase production in the short term.
Therefore, the forecast of the Deputy Minister of oil Fayyad al-NIMA that in 2017 the average level of oil prices could be $76, looks quite likely. And even the much-touted “shale revolution” in USA is hardly able to influence.Related posts: