The era of hydrocarbons is nearing completion, the future is in electric vehicles and renewable energy, said the head of Sberbank German Gref. Oil century, in his opinion, there are only 10 years old. Care of oil below $ 29 per barrel gives weight to his words. However, such statements made more than once, and louder than they sounded in periods of sharp collapse in oil prices.
Oil age, like stone, has ended, said the head of Sberbank German Gref. According to the forecast of the banker if China will continue to create alternative energy today at the same pace, the country will consume 45% less conventional energy sources. This is especially true of coal, which develops and supplies Russia, as well as other hydrocarbons.
“In renewable energy sources go, when gas and oil are expensive. Now incentives to move to renewable energy sources no. Its share will grow, but at a very slow pace”
“We can say that this era (the dominance of the hydrocarbons) in the past. The stone age did not end because people ran out of stones. Similarly, we can say that the oil age has ended. It will be the remainder, perhaps 10 years, as long as the entire infrastructure of electric vehicles will not be deployed,” – said Gref.
Electricity and transport are two components that consume the most of our hydrocarbons, 18% and 56% respectively, said the head of Sberbank.
“And there, and there is a radical change. In China by the end of 2016 – beginning of 2017 to 70 gigawatts of capacity will give the sun. Sun, wind, and bioenergy – all together is 230 gigawatts of installed capacity, plus 330 gigawatts of hydropower. A total of 560 gigawatts of installed capacity is renewable energy. For comparison, this is two and a half times more than the entire installed capacity of the Russian Federation”, – gave the example Gref.
The fall in oil prices is a good reason for that. In 2009 and during other periods of the fall was also a Renaissance of high-profile predictions about the mass transition to green energy and electric cars.
However, most experts, including the international energy Agency, the decline of the era of oil and hydrocarbons do not expect for decades to come. Although, of course, everyone recognizes that the share of RES (renewable energy sources) will slowly increase. However, in the overall energy mix, its share is still very low.
“In the world today, about 1.2 billion cars. They say that in a decade there will be 2 billion vehicles. Electric cars are now about 1 million-plus, that is a thousand times less. While transport consumes 60-65% of the total oil production. About the end of the oil era can be said? In this simple example it is already possible to sum up: the statement Gref beautiful, you can clap and disperse. It is shocking, nothing more”, – says the newspaper VIEW Director of the energy development Fund Sergey Pikin.
“Problems with the sale of oil will be, but certainly not in this decade, and, I think, beyond 2030, when the number of motor vehicles on electric, hydrogen and hybrid engines, will increase. In the meantime, we can see that the cheapest electric car, for example “Mitsubishi”, “Reno”, is how the car business class. And Tesla cars at 100 thousand dollars – it is certainly the luxury class,” – says Pikin.
“Electric cars promised a massive arrival in the early 2000-ies. But it never happened. Technology has become cheaper, better, but the scale of demand for electric cars, we still do not see on the part of consumers”, – said Deputy Director of the national energy security Fund Alexander Pasechnik. First, he explains, cheap oil, particularly in Europe and the United States, does not stimulate the purchase of electric vehicles. Second, electric vehicles have not become comfortable. “This is the cost of batteries that should be changed. They have to carry, and it is a heavy item – like an additional passenger, tentatively,” – says beekeeper.
Finally, the environmental side of the issue is also controversial. “To produce this battery, it is necessary to burn several tons of the same oil. Not the fact that this car goes more green. Again the electricity that you battery will draw from the network, is also necessary to produce in thermal power plant burning the same coal, oil or gas,” says the source.
“To create the infamous Tesla battery, which is so pompously presented Evan Max, also need energy. He said he was ready with a battery with the size of one US state to power the entire world. So to build this battery, it takes much more energy than she will be able then to give. So, in many ways all these statements about the end of oil is a PR, marketing”, – adds Sergey Pikin.
Another big problem is the creation of infrastructure for recharging electric vehicles, which requires the reorganization of all of the networks of stations, huge costs and investment.
Electric cars are expensive compared to petrol, this car of a small class with low power. It’s a completely different level of comfort, different from the familiar to the motorist. Therefore, the most difficult is to change the mentality of the people, says the beekeeper.
With regard to renewable energy sources (RES), it is true that their share in the overall energy balance of the world grows every year. However, she is still a minor. “While no single energy system is not working according to new principles with one hundred percent renewable energy. There are periods of time when renewables provide almost 100% of the energy as is the case with Norway, or Spain in the summer due to the renewable energy produced up to half of the energy. But it is individual episodes,” – says Sergey Pikin.
“The stone age did not end because people ran out of stones. Similarly, we can say that the oil age is over”
Renewable energy is solar and wind generation, bio-energy, geothermal energy, energy of tides. Water generation is the only more or less decent share in the world balance. An important issue of renewable energy – in their seasonality and dependence on nature and weather conditions. Even energy generation from hydropower depends largely on the season and the weather, to say nothing about the wind and the sun. Use of renewable sources can often be only as a Supplement to the base hydrocarbon energy.
In addition, the cost of obtaining renewable energy and power generation often lose energy in the traditional way.
“It is premature to talk about the end of the era of hydrocarbons. Path and a slower pace, but oil consumption continues to grow, and open up new energy sources do not give the profitability that is necessary for their widespread implementation. And in the light of cheap oil and can’t give – many of them even at prices over $ 100 per barrel required for the active introduction of state subsidies and various privileges. Perhaps over the next 20 years we will see some major breakthrough in the field of alternative energy, but now you can only talk about the prerequisites to be created for this, but not really a breakthrough,” agrees Bogdan Zvarich of investment holding “Finam”.
Moreover, because of the reduction in price of hydrocarbons it is possible to speak about strengthening of positions of the hydrocarbon. For industrial powers Germany, China, USA, Japan cheap raw materials is a great incentive to development, as huge investments are exempt, and the money saved will go into the real sector. “To renewable energy sources, they are unlikely. Why, if the traditional resources cheap? Go into RES, when gas and oil are expensive. Now incentives to move to renewable energy sources no. It is clear that technology will develop, and its share of RES will be taken at the expense of environmental doctrines and technological progress. Its share will grow, but at a very slow pace”, – says Alexander Pasechnik.
As for China, Beijing is really recently among the leaders of investments into RES. However, it is the largest economy, which, despite all fears, continues to grow. If you look closely, now all the fears that China will slow growth from 6-7% to 3-4%, but the question of drop is not.
“According to all forecasts as Chinese research institutes, and the IEA, the main type of fuel in China for at least another two decades will remain coal. Other predictions I have not even seen. Of course, the rate of growth of renewable energy in China, the largest in the world, but coal-fired power plants remain the basis of current economic development. Energy consumption in China is not reduced, but continues to grow. Last year, China is at a record level and bought, and consumed oil,” – says Sergey Pikin.
“Too revolutionary to wait for the change of technological way – from hydrocarbon to renewable energy sources. On the contrary, now cheap hydrocarbons to spur them to higher consumption, and what to expect leading energy consulting group. In particular, the IEA promises growth in oil demand by the end of the year, which will eat the surplus, which is available on the market. The oil market will find its equilibrium sooner or later, the decline phase will change the phase of growth. $ 50 per barrel – it would be a compromise for consumers and producers”, says the beekeeper.
In the best case, alternative energy will take 20 years to approximately 20-30% of the total volume consumed on the Earth energy, the head of the research group in the Department of chemical and petroleum industry Engineering school of Salih the University of calgary (Canada) Nader, Mahina. While alternative energy sources will never be able to 100% replace the traditional sources, he concludes.
Therefore, the Russian hydrocarbons will long be in demand. This means that Russia, if you want to have the time to draw all the forces on the development of the scientific potential, to invest in the human potential to escape from the hydrocarbon trap. Gref also put an end to technological development of Russia. He named Russia as the country-daunshifterom and said that she had lost the technology race in the global economy. The winners, in his opinion, now are those countries that were able to adapt and invest in technology development.Related posts: