US Department of energy has presented several forecasts for the quotations of “black gold”. The most optimistic growth to $252. But only by 2040. The reason for this will be a sharp jump in demand for fuel, which should occur in the next quarter-century. However, now the barrel can not exceed $50. There are factors that can derail the price below this level. These predictions are, rather, designed for speculators, which in the short term can draw from them profit. But hope for them is to catch the pie in the sky. And the Baghdad forecast that in 2017 the average price of a barrel reaches $76, more substantive and realistic.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
All of American energy has calculated three scenarios for the next 25 years. First, the negative, implies an increase in the price of oil by 2040, up to $76. The roots of this slow increase of quotations can be found already now. So, the international monetary Fund says that the global economy is on the verge of total collapse. According to the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde, her recovery is complicated by the high risk and unsustainable growth. Thus the stagnation and crisis the most characteristic of developed countries. In the last few years in Europe as a result of mass layoffs in large, mnogofuktsional’nyy and high-tech enterprises. Moreover, not laborers, and specialists with higher education. A month ago Helsinki demanded that Brussels compensation due to involuntary dismissal 1, 3 thousand specialists of the Finnish concern Nokia.
Clearly, the sales of most companies, “blue chip” global financial markets, reduce each month because of falling demand. You need to save. This ultimately has a negative effect on oil prices depends on any production.
Second, the “realistic” scenario the US Department of energy assumes oil prices to 2040 of $141. This will happen if OPEC will maintain a share in the world market in 39-43%. An important indicator is the demand for oil from the Organization for economic cooperation and development, in particular, EU countries, Israel, Canada, USA, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand. Forecasts are quite good — daily consumption in these countries is expected to grow from 45.5 million to 46.1 million barrels. However, there is one circumstance. “Barrel” for $141 will be worth only when, in most countries of the world (not only in the OECD), the daily demand for raw materials to increase from 44.8 million to 74.8 million barrels a day.
In the most favorable scenario, in 25 years, quotes “black gold” will bounce to the historic level of $252. Analysts attribute this to the possibility of high rates of GDP growth (4.5% per year is 4.2% in realistic scenarios) in the countries of the “second front”, for example, in China, India and Russia. The prerequisites for this is. In spite of that, over the past decades, the growth in oil consumption in China ranged from 6-8% annually. These rates are stored. Even if they fall to 4%, then by 2040 the consumption of raw materials in China will grow twice. Then the price of $252 is quite justified.
However, to wait 25 long years to see such a record of quotes, I can only the most persistent, long-lived stock exchanges. Hardly after the statement of US Department of energy market players will shift dramatically in the oil sector from the monetary sections. Nevertheless, certain progress can occur. And not only because of the shocking American predictions, which rather aimed at the most adventurous speculators.
Much realistic, but also positive assumptions can be drawn from the statement of the Deputy Minister of oil Fayyad al-NIMA, who believes that the price of oil will rise in 2017 to $76. The official admitted that Baghdad is not able to increase oil exports due to strong demand in the domestic market. Iraq is the second producer in OPEC and its official position is one of the most influential. So, this price is quite likely.
As for this year, the price of a barrel could reach $50. It’s a forecast by Russian experts. Proof of this is the fact that OPEC has kept its forecast for world oil demand in 2016 at 94 million barrels a day.Related posts: