Wednesday will start the visit of Obama to Saudi Arabia where he will hold talks with the king. Many years, the US Alliance and the SA finally spreading at the seams. Ethical claims to this Union grows, the White house sees no reason to support the obscurantist regime based on violence, and most importantly – have revealed the involvement of Saudis in the September 11 attacks. But will Obama historic opportunity?
The last Chapter in the published 2003 report by the bipartisan Commission of the U.S. Congress about the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 was classified for reasons of “data protection, which are critical to national security.” They say that it contains information about the involvement of Saudi Arabia to the terrorist attacks, and U.S. public opinion demanded from the President to declassify 28 pages of the report before his visit to Riyadh. In response, the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Adel al-Jubayr threatened to sell off American assets of the Kingdom, if Congress approves the project, allowing to bring to justice the Saudi government for involvement in the September 11 attacks”.
“The Egyptian media reported that crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in one of the social networks “indirectly attributed to the collapse of the Russian aircraft on the Sinai to terrorists under its influence”
And here on the eve of presidential trip, the Deputy assistant to Obama for national security Ben Rhodes said that among those who financed the terrorists were actually Saudi not just the rich, not related to politics but also government officials, and members of their families.
The policy of “buy yourself a terrorist”
Among serious experts on the Middle East there is little doubt in the existence of ties between the Saudis and terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda, although this confidence is built on circumstantial evidence. Such as unhindered commercial activities and access to cheap financing of the family of Osama bin Laden. Or the ability of Riyadh (but not always) to limit Islamist terrorism in the different parts of the world, as it happened during the war in Chechnya, when Russian foreign policy has managed to find convincing arguments for the Royal family. In this case it is considered that the Saudi authorities forced the terrorists to carry out his will, not by force and bribery, negotiating with its ultra-rich and Islamic funds, funding terror (not only terror, of course, but propaganda, and that Wahhabi and other radical preachers falsely called “Jihad”).
Notably, how exactly the Saudis denied us accusations of involvement in organizing terrorist attacks of 11 September. According to them, the Commission of Congress did not reveal “any evidence that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials individually funded the organization.” That is, there is not trying to hide that “not senior” officials and departments of Saudi offices in the organization of large-scale terrorist attack in the United States may be involved.
What extremist groups are recognized as terrorist in different countries (infographic)However, the terrorist attacks against Russia. Egyptian media reported that crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman in one of the social networks “indirectly attributed to the collapse of the Russian aircraft on the Sinai to terrorists under its influence.” This Prince, born in 1985, apparently not afraid of anything and is convinced of their impunity, even after the confessions in funding the destruction of Russian civil aircraft.
“Anywhere in the world, when you put a guy and defense Minister, and heir to the throne when he was only 32 years old, he wants to show himself. You’ve probably seen teenagers who want to show that they are adults, and start Smoking in public. It is for this reason, I think, the Minister of defense of Saudi Arabia wants to show himself: they say, I’m a man, I’m an adult, ” says the former Ambassador of Iran in Russia, and now one of the leaders of the security Council of the Islamic Republic of Reza sajjadi. And I assure you, no great policy for such actions is not worth it. And even a Saudi Prince has criticized him for his actions, saying that it destroys the Royal family, and the whole country.”
It is impossible to live
The Saudi ruling family, in a completely archaic, trudnoperevarimoy in the twenty-first century absolute monarchy with such an ugly anachronisms, as the police service Commission for promotion of virtue and prevention of Vice, clung to power with a death grip. However, for Obama’s visit, the Saudi government has demonstrated unprecedented liberalism, forbidding the rebels the Commission to promote virtue and smack people after the extrajudicial arrests: now virtuous will have to invite local police to make the arrests, and in mid April they were ordered to perform their functions in ensuring compliance with Islamic rules “kindly and gently”. It is no coincidence that the same Sajjad says: “the Government of Saudi Arabia now fears its people, so they’ll never go for any elections in Saudi Arabia”.
Earlier, Obama spoke of the ruling families of Saudi Arabia and other monarchies as “freeloaders” (free-riders), reorienting the emphasis of its policy in the region for a resumption of relations with Iran. A prominent Indian expert on international security M. K. Narayanan now even talks about Obama’s willingness “to jettison” Saudi Arabia (and also Egypt) is a staunch ally of the US for half a century. Riyadh tried to snap: a prominent Saudi diplomat (and later fall from grace) Prince Turki bin Faisal during the “chemical crisis” in Syria has described Obama’s policies as “drawing lines in the sand”. But the dog barks, but the caravan goes on: so Obama has managed to evade attempts to impose (including middle Eastern monarchies) military strikes on Syria.
And the Kingdom has already begun to crumble, and protests are very different in nature. Because dissatisfied with everything: the disenfranchised Shiite workers, ordinary Sufis who are not allowed to worship their shrines (from the famous Muslim freethinking, which turned Islam into a great world religion in KSA is nothing left), located in a tight grip of restrictions on women, young people, willing to dance to modern music, the Hejaz multi-billion dollar, completely deprived of access to political power, and even members of the Royal family, who fear that rigorism and lack of basic flexibility of the ruling circles threatens the very existence of the country as a whole.
Moreover, it is known that the Royal family has not only hidden, probably sincerely believing Shiites, but even carefully disguised Communists, which in Saudi Arabia is automatically recognized by atheists and subject to the death penalty.
Saudi Arabia was created in the 20-ies of XX century as a result of gains backward Najd neighboring developed provinces. For a long time, this Kingdom was saved from a popular uprising – the Pro-Iranian, Pro-Soviet (socialist via Yemen) or separatist – armed support of great Britain, and then USA. And now Saudi Arabia, with its oil wealth hungering support of Washington, but Obama genuinely does not understand why he should support this ugly anachronism.
Yes, these Saudi “values” as the monarchy without the slightest elements of popular representation, the absence of an independent judiciary, denial of the principles of freedom of conscience and freedom of expression, ownership of all of the top positions in the country by members of the same family, the execution of poets and preachers by cutting off the head might be able to protect the Navy, Marines and USAF, but whether it is the American people? And most importantly – whether it will be the cheapest and most effective way to promote American interests in the region in the long term? The Saudi authorities themselves chose the police ways of solving social, economic and religious issues, attracted by their simplicity, and for the opposition they have experienced and, as they say, of skilful butchers.
“Obama is much smaller than its predecessors, is focused on oil interests. He is the puppet of the bankers and Industrialists, not the American oil industry”
Meanwhile, us interests can successfully defend not only bigots, monarchists and the liberals. Not only the Pro-Iranian Shia can revolt. In the Hijaz, the most developed part of Saudi Arabia, in Mecca and Medina, the growing discontent, and formed the clans of billionaires that are denied access to political power, as alternatives already cultivated liberal values, civil society, social networks and even the Republican ideal, so dear to the American political establishment. This meets the remote support of the broad strata of the population, and Turkish Newspapers were published with titles “Accustomed to the luxury of the princes angered the king’s decision about the economy”.
But the Saudis have the trump card that is already laid out on the table the head of the foreign Ministry Adel al-Jubayr is a huge investment in the US economy. For them and for their friends in Washington from among the bankers, oil workers, politicians and lobbyists it is good insurance. During an acute financial crisis, when the Kingdom’s budget was formed with a large deficit, and amid huge official and unofficial (but voiced) internal and external commitments that are simply not plenty to Finance, and low oil prices, Saudi Arabia has managed to get into several wars: in Yemen, in Syria, in Bahrain. However, the hopes to stop the internal crisis due to small victorious war did not materialize. And Yemen, and the Syrian campaign failed, and huge amounts of money (war is expensive, and only a victorious war enhances the loan) must be written off in loss.
The stability of the dynasty for a long time guaranteed also a gerontocracy – a country ruled by old men, experienced and well remember your own 70-ies and 80-ies, when the throne beneath them swayed. But now they were replaced by a new generation that on personal experience felt only triumph. The world’s youngest defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman plunged the country into adventures, of which you now need to find a way out without losing face. Vladimir Putin did not go at it on occasion, and it cannot be excluded that the meeting of the king with Barack Obama may be the last chance for the Prince, especially against the background of opals Pro-American-minded members of the Royal family. Any opal is good because it can at any time be replaced by favor (but the revolution is also can).
The world’s largest exporters and consumers of oil, and countries, which are its greatest proven zapisyvaetsya experts, speaking about the upcoming US President’s visit to Saudi Arabia, use the concept of “Obama doctrine”, meaning by it not so much formally announced the policy reversal of Washington’s policy in the East, as the worldview of the leadership of the United States as a whole under the current administration. The worldview of Obama, according to the same Narayanan, focuses on what in the world is called “real politics”, foreign policy decisions are made on that basis. In fact we are talking about a significant reduction in the impact of traditional value system of the US diplomacy, who believe that military dominance is the answer to any problems.
Simplifying, we can say that the logic of Obama’s policy comes from the concept that the US no longer need to engage in geopolitical competition with such powers as Russia and China. The “Arab spring” and even the collapse loyal to Washington regime in a country like Egypt, almost did not affect the interests of the United States. And the main objective now seen not to risk the lives of Americans, if, indeed, important U.S. interests are not directly affected. Much better to force others to do the hard work of maintaining order and combating terrorism.
This approach can in a sense be called a return to the principles of isolationism, in determining US foreign policy in the nineteenth century and in the period between the two world wars – even if the world pays its debts, and the rest is cooked in its own pot.
The Obama doctrine refuses the dominant American establishment of the “deficit of security”, if it is not backed by military force. The military resources of the USA are great, but not unlimited, while the needs of America’s allies around the world are endless, and to meet the needs of the US need to focus on long-term policy, and not on immediate response to every new challenge use big stick. Obama wants to achieve without armed violence, but it is expensive.
In the framework of its policy of pivot East, Obama is much less than its predecessors, is focused on oil interests. He is the puppet of the bankers and Industrialists, not the American oil industry, hence the decline of interest in oil-producing monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Of course, this is not a radical break-up, and the trend, but the fact that he, in the words of a number of conservatives, “too harsh” to the Arab monarchs, catches the eye.
It is a radical shift in the priorities of US foreign policy, but it is unclear how long this shift will, inherits his replacement whether Obama’s in office, whether it will be substantial for American policy in the middle East or will it just be a random fluctuation that is associated with the traits of Obama – his distrust, and even contempt for the “historic allies” of Washington in the region. In short, if there had been a consensus in the political establishment of the USA in terms of changes in the priorities of foreign policy – remains an open question.
Of course, the choice of the American President is not easy. “Five years later “Arab spring”, – poetically sums up the state Chinese news Agency “Xinhua” – not only breathes the spring warmth, on the contrary, grave coldness enveloped the previously relatively rich countries, bringing chaos and devastation to their lands. After the “Arab spring” struck many middle Eastern countries, the former Secretary of state Hillary Clinton noted that the United States should continue to support democracy in the middle East, even despite outbreaks of violence. According to her, Washington’s attitude toward the young democracies emerging from the Arab spring, must not change after the “acts of violence committed by a few extremists”. Five years later the Middle East is still wandering in the dark and can hardly see a ray of light security. Western countries regard the bloodshed in the middle East as an integral part of the way to the final stability, and democracy – a miraculous panacea to solve all difficult situations. After all, the Western media called the unrest in the middle East poetic word “spring”.
But Obama has nothing to lose – it long remained to determine U.S. foreign policy. But the long-term interests of American home life, which he let to the best of my understanding, but very conscientiously protect, will remain.Related posts: