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Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Vasily Kashin: throughout East Asia there is a growing nationalism


The expert explained why Southeast Asia has compared to Europe before world

May 15, 2014, 21:50

Text: Marina Baltaeva

Printable version

“Across the region there is a growing nationalism. East Asia compared with Europe sentiment on the eve of the First world war. The Nations are getting richer, there was time to think about his place in history, the worldview, ideas about historical justice”, – said the newspaper VIEW, analyst Vasily Kashin, commenting on the wave of anti-China riots in Vietnam.

As a result of unrest in the province ha Tinh in North Vietnam killed 21 people, and about 100 were injured. In the night of Thursday, several hundred demonstrators tried to storm a steel plant of Formosa Plastics Group, owned by Taiwanese Corporation. Among the dead were five Vietnamese and, presumably, 16 Chinese nationals.

Riots broke out the previous day in another area of Vietnam – in the South, in the provinces of Binh Duong and Dong Nai. There, too, swept anti-Chinese demonstrations. The demonstrators were angered that China in early may started drilling oil wells in the South China sea in the disputed area of the spratlys, which is also claimed by Vietnam. Earlier around the oil platforms between Vietnamese and Chinese patrol ships have an armed clash. Last week the foreign Ministers of the ASEAN bloc, expressed serious concern at the growing tensions between Vietnam and China.

From the pogroms in the South were affected by the Taiwan factory, which, as it seemed the protesters belonged to the Chinese. The Vietnamese authorities reported that the gates were broken factories and broken Windows. Police launched an investigation. The Taiwanese authorities have already announced that will provide assistance to the victims compatriots and the representative of Viet Nam on the island made clear that the Taiwanese came under the hot hand of the rebels by mistake.

The Ministry of foreign Affairs of Singapore stated that the premises of several foreign companies were broken into and set on fire, hurt industrial Park (we will remind, the majority of inhabitants of Singapore – Chinese). Hong Kong company Yue Yuen, that makes shoes for Adidas, Nike and other international brands, said that it had suspended production in Vietnam.

White house press Secretary Jay Carney reiterated that the President Barack Obama during his recent Asian tour, stressed the need for peaceful dialogue over territorial disputes in the South China sea.

In an interview with the newspaper VIEW expert at the Center for analysis of strategies and technologies Vasily Kashin told about that, wouldn’t the current anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam to a major war in Southeast Asia.

OPINION: the Vietnam is an authoritarian state. Could there be riots break out spontaneously? What consequences can result in these disorders?


Vasily Kashin (photo: from the personal pages vk.com)

Vasily Kashin: Vietnamese authorities initially allowed small demonstrations, that is, given the slack to scare the Chinese, but then the situation they have gotten out of control…

The consequences can be quite unpleasant. The fact that Vietnam beat the Chinese managers, engineers and other personnel, to stir up nationalist feelings in China, will create additional pressure on the government and force it to behave against the Vietnam more tightly.

Although between China and Vietnam have territorial disputes escalated, in parallel with another trend – a gradual transfer to Vietnam of Chinese enterprises, especially the textile industry, which was help in the economic development of Vietnam. In General between the two countries has created a fairly strong economic ties. This process now is broken.

In Viet Nam will worsen the investment climate, but it is still difficult to assess. Korean and Japanese enterprises have suspended their work, I’m afraid. The hardest economically it will hit Vietnam. But politically it is unpleasant for both sides.

OPINION: How tough will now go the dispute over the oil-rich waters?

V. K.: China is practically claiming the entire South China sea. In the Wake of such rising nationalist passions, both parties can start to behave harder, more frequent collisions, for example, border courts, mutual detentions, and so forth. The dispute involved in all the neighboring countries, including Indonesia and Malaysia. The most serious disputes China has with Vietnam and the Philippines. With the latest Chinese usually behave more rigidly, because it is a less influential country and relationships the Chinese have with them less. With Vietnam policy was more complex.

OPINION: it is Known that Washington would like to create on the perimeter of the China buffer zone of its allies, to contain its growing power. How plausible is the version that is hand of the United States adds fuel to the fire dispute Hanoi and Beijing?

V. K.: there are no as such the hands of the US, it all happens without American conspiracies. But seeing the growing contradictions between the ASEAN countries and China, the US is trying to take this into account – the creation of a system of alliances and his return to Asia. They solidaritywith with ASEAN countries in matters connected with the regime of navigation in the South China sea, in this respect, criticize China for being too aggressive.

“The question of strategy and national pride”

OPINION: Washington has previously warned China against repeating the Crimean scenario in Taiwan. But there is something in common between the Islands in the South China sea and the Crimea?

V. K.: Here there is nothing even remotely in common. We have disputes with Ukraine largely because of the people, than for territories, and they are very closely connected with ancient history, psychology and so on. Islands in the South China sea have never been inhabited, it was bare rock. Now they artificially populated, built the posts, the Chinese have built on one of the Islands the city to secure for themselves.

But in recent years the importance of scraps of land begins to grow due to such phenomena as energy, transport flows, new types of weapons. It is a matter of strategy and national pride.

On the shelf there are open deposits of oil and gas. Also through the South China sea, the Malacca Strait is the main stream of Chinese and Japanese energy imports and generally all goods of foreign trade is designated, the control of which gives a huge value.In addition, China is building a powerful strategic nuclear submarine fleet, has already built a base for their new nuclear missile submarines on Hainan island. The Chinese are not opposed to commercial shipping, but try to limit the possibility for action of any foreign warships.

Apparently Beijing considers South China sea as a future protected area where boats can patrol with missiles on Board, and, according to some assumptions, he committed on the Soviet model to create a Bastion – heavily-patrolled waters, where submarines can feel safe. So the Chinese are trying to ban access here alien warships.

Meanwhile, from across the region, growing nationalism. No wonder East Asia compared with Europe sentiment on the eve of the First world war. The people began to prosper, they had time to think about his place in history, the worldview, ideas about the historical truth – and it also affects the government. The fact that Europe will not come to anyone’s mind is: “Let us anything just grab, because it is impossible to take any more!” – they have this to say.

OPINION: How the current U.S. ready to intervene if China openly entered the war with its neighbors?

V. K.: in the Philippines they have a military Alliance, the US is obligated to protect them. In relation to Vietnam, the US has no such obligations, is their slow motion in the military-political sphere, but Vietnam still is not a country in the orbit of influence of the United States…

Periodically even the countries themselves US allies – Japan, the Philippines or Taiwan – aloud sound of a doubt, is the US prepared to intervene, to come to their aid in case of attack by China. If you remember the story, so all the great wars began. Someone has any doubts about the determination of the opposite side, someone decided to recoil as it should – perhaps, she will endure, but the opposite side could not stand… Such a chain of errors and lead to crashes. In East Asia the set of all these conditions is.

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