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Friday, October 28, 2016

“Temporary impeachment” of the President of Brazil, is likely to be permanent

Brazil’s President removed from office – while temporarily. If after six months the Senate, which assumed the powers of the court, make a final verdict, Rousseff, who considers himself an innocent victim, would be forced to leave. If the opposition Brazilian real and legally correct arguments for this decision?

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff suspended for 180 days. This decision came Brazilian senators during the meeting, held on Thursday and lasted more than 20 hours. According to its results for the impeachment voted by 55 senators, against – 22. By law, the impeachment is approved in the vote for him a simple majority of the 81 senators, including in the upper house of Parliament.

“Rousseff can theoretically return to their duties in running the country. The court can justify it”

During the voting senators at the Senate building brought together hundreds of supporters of Dilma Rousseff, which the police had to disperse with tear gas. A rally near the Parliament building held and opponents of the President. According to the latest polls, the latest polls showed that the number of supporters and opponents of impeachment in the country is about the same.

Earlier, before the session of the Senate, Dilma Rousseff stated that “will continue to fight to return to the government,” even if the impeachment is approved. “Yes, I actually consider myself a victim. And, of course, Yes, I’m innocent” – quoted TASS the President of Brazil.

However, Rousseff has ordered to transport her belongings from the presidential Palace to a private residence.

The review period can be shortened”

Now duties Rousseff will move temporarily to the Vice-President Michele the Temer. During this time, the Senate will examine the arguments put forward by Rousseff against the initiators of the impeachment.

The Brazilian Constitution provides for a period of 180 days, during which the issue of impeachment is within the competence of the Presidium of the Senate. During this time will be held the trial of the President in the upper house of Parliament, which will be for this term “transformed” in court, said in comments the newspaper VIEW, Professor of MGIMO, doctor of historical Sciences, expert on Brazil and Latin America Liudmila Okuneva.

Meetings of the Senate in the case of Rousseff will be chaired by not the speaker of the house, and the head of the Supreme court. “In fact, the review period can be reduced” – the expert adds.

At the end of this period the fate Rousseff will be resolved definitively. If two thirds of MPs (54 people) will agree with the arguments of opponents of Rousseff and vote for impeachment, the President would resign from his post.

“Rousseff can theoretically return to their duties in running the country. The court can justify it, so impeachment can stop and be stopped, says okunieff. – But, apparently, that’s not gonna happen.”

“The biggest fraud”

“The crisis in Brazil began brewing long enough, – said Liudmila Okuneva. – In fact, immediately after the presidential elections of 2014 formed difficult situation, especially in the economy, but also in political space.” Throughout 2015, the crisis deepened, and with the beginning of this year the process has entered the final stage, the expert explains.

As previously noted the newspaper VIEW, one and a half years in the country spins the biggest scandal involving corruption in state oil company Petrobras. The corruption investigation became a weapon in the struggle for power, but rather for the deprivation of power of the workers ‘ Party, the left, who ruled the country for 13 years.

Dilma Rousseff – the successor and fellow party member of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President from 2003 to 2011 and now one of the most popular politicians on the left flank. March 4, Lula da Silva was detained by the police in the investigation of cases of corruption in Petrobras, which, however, did not stop him in mid-April to take part in rallies in support of his successor. At the same time more than one million Brazilians came out to protest demanding the resignation of Rousseff.

The beginning of consideration of the impeachment of Rousseff, the President of the lower house of Parliament Eduardo Cunha announced in early December 2015. The parliamentary Commission of Brazil, on 12 April officially called for impeachment. Then for the impeachment of the President voted by the lower house of Parliament. The initiative was supported by 367 deputies out of 513 that even more than the minimum required to ensure that the vote was held.

The decision of the speaker was based on the request of the opposition: authors of the relevant request has accused the Brazilian leader in financial irregularities that, in their opinion, were made in budget allocation as during her previous presidential term, and in the first months of the second mandate.

The President may be imputed to a number of accusations of violation of fiscal discipline. According to the Brazilian Constitution it is a crime in the sphere of management of the economy and Finance, the sanction for which is dismissal of the head of state from office, impeachment,” explains Okuneva.

The Brazilian leader assured that during the tenure of the head of state has not committed any illegal acts. According to her, the Vice-President Michel Temer (which now goes to the acting President and speaker of Parliament Cunha trying to seek her impeachment in order to lead the country.

“The political process and the substitution of arguments”

As noted in the midst of the crisis, the Brazilian political scientist, head of research center “Audible (state of Rio Grande do Sul) Fabian, Mielniczuk, in the case of impeachment “refers to the political process… the legal basis for the removal of the President is very weak.” According to him, “Rousseff lost support of the majority in Congress, which prevents her to run the country”.

The impeachment process against Rousseff is accompanied by substitution of arguments, Mielniczuk added: “the Investigation into the (state oil and gas) Petrobras did not touch the President and not mentioned in the request for impeachment.

There we are talking about the financial balances of Executive power and that the government is supposedly hiding some information on the state of public accounts. Not about corruption, – said the expert. But we see how to create a political climate conducive to impeachment. And to justify the removal of the head of state, describes all possible arguments, including a corruption scandal. And people don’t pay any attention to it,” said Mielniczuk. In his opinion, is a weak point of the Brazilian democratic system: “Discusses the process of impeachment on the basis of one argument, and the vote in his favor due to the very different” – he explained.

After the “point of no return”

In the case of final dismissal, which may be held in the fall, Vice-President Temer temporarily will assume the duties of the head of the country and will remain so until elections, which are scheduled for October 2018, says Ludmila Okuneva.

“But now is increasingly gaining the idea that you need to hold early elections, because the crisis is so multifaceted, a very big disappointment in political parties, leaders, Ministers etc, that have an idea to start from scratch,” – said the expert.

Change of course should not wait

For external forces, in particular for the United States, unfavorable destabilization of Brazil, said Okuneva. One of the BRICS countries, Brazil is a partner of the United States, after a certain cooling of relations restored, the country permeates American capital.

“For Russia, the more disadvantageous instability in the most important partner for the BRICS, in which Brazil has shown great activity,” said Okuneva. Anyway, a possible change in the leadership of the country should not cause a dramatic change in foreign policy priorities, the expert believes. “It was unusual for her in the previous stages, with all the changes of regimes in the XX and XXI centuries”, – said the interlocutor.

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