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Friday, October 28, 2016

Kiev may succeed in finding “casus Belli”

DND and LNR demanded from Kiev to release self-willedally occupied the “gray zone” that would reduce the number of clashes. The requirement is reasonable, but you need to understand that boestolknovenie provoked by Kiev just for “squeezing” the “neytralke”. And each case can start the flywheel of war which cannot be stopped by political means.

Recently a former adviser of the President of Ukraine Yuri Biryukov, who now works in his native Nikolaev the head of the local branch of the Pro-presidential party went to the frontline village of Pisky near Donetsk, as if horrified at what he saw and erupted with a series of reviews, from which it follows that the “Russian world” “I walked over the people” and the need to protect civilians by “squeezing neytralke” as “separable” “threatening to repeat”. As an illustration is a picture of the school in the Sand that was burned during the fighting for the town, several times passed from hand to hand and still remains one of the hottest points of the front in the Donbass.

“Industrial zone of the Town is the largest in Eastern Europe metallurgical and chemical plants that are located in a continuous belt”

Of course, Biryukov – not a source of information, and the classic revolutionary gab-rag. Child Maidan in the truest sense of the word. A Jewish boy from Nikolaev dropped out of medical at in Odessa, but all my life I worked on the ambulance and a paramedic in intensive care in Kyiv. I want to see the statistics of survival in period of his duty, if it is positive, then it could be a vocation, but the revolution was called into the campaign. And somehow it so happened that an obscure volunteer medic with Maidana in 2014 turned out to be the owner of IT business in the US, and Agrokompleks near Nikolayev.

Is it because it is so that in 2014 he will organize a volunteer group “wings of the Phoenix”, which is engaged in supply of several units of the Ukrainian army, and in August became Advisor to Poroshenko logistics issues support of the armed forces, and in October of the same year, – the assistant to the defense Minister on the same issues? It Biryukov developed and was responsible for the implementation of the reform on re. How it all ended, we see, but smiling, witty and credible Biryukov is so fond of Poroshenko that it was his submission by the President of Ukraine said the famous phrase about “the best army in Europe”. He then Ukrainian army had in mind, if someone does not understand.

Interest Biryukova to the village of Sands explained. He still personally oversees the 79th Mykolaiv airborne brigade, and a trip to the Sands was connected with the opening there of a centralized system of water supply on the positions of the paratroopers. When the same team from his native city of Nikolaev was posted in the scraps near the city of Lugansk, Biryukov and his “phoenixes” were able to withdraw nearly 80 seriously wounded, and then facilitated the return of the brigade to rest in Nikolaev, repairing her staff. Then, in August 2014 Biryukov and created a private “guard” 3rd volunteer battalion “Phoenix” among the soldiers of the 79th brigade, he was personally liable. In parallel, people Biryukova collected donations for 200 thousand hryvnias a day and to have collected, by various estimates, more than 10 million. Biryukov started the production of bulletproof vests, which are supplied to the 79th brigade and the volunteer (about 2000 pieces total), repaired the old an-26 Borispol, which took control of the 15th brigade Boryspil transport aviation.

However, on 28 April this year, President Poroshenko Biryukov fired from the post of his regular adviser, she kept it as a freelance (e.g., 13). A little earlier – in February – Biryukova moved back to Nikolaev, apparently, with an eye to approve of EA there as an alternative, the Governor or the representative of the President, which fits into the framework of the new law on “federalization”, to the end not accepted.

In principle, this is the end of the story. Biryukov talented adventurer who give birth to dozens of revolution and civil war. His statements and the statements could be considered only as a funny humorous pieces, if it is not touched on one of the most relevant and potentially dangerous fact – “deflection neytralke”.

The recent killing of civilians at a checkpoint in Olenivka could become the new casus Belli, but did not because of political reasons of the highest order. However, the logic of war itself is capable of producing such occasions as the situation on the front line these same higher forces not controlled. Sometimes things happen by themselves, and then the flywheel can not be stopped. But now, as cynical as it may sound, it is not enough just to fire from a mortar the peace convoy, waiting for the morning to start a major war. Need either several such cases in a row, or something more that will power is no longer controlled mechanism.

Talk about “neutral” go for a long time. And how may times was called the most ideal month for conducting such operations. If you explain it schematically, between the positions of the APU and the BCH on some parts of the front there is a neutral zone, in which were a number of settlements, and industrial buildings, and strategically important objects. The ceasefire did not seem to give opportunities to both parties to occupy the territory, but obvious and sad example of Shirokino. The Minsk agreement also prohibited to bring to the front line heavy artillery, and even more so to use it in the neutral zone. However, Mat all year regularly “squeezed” “neutral”, sometimes not using violent methods, but provoking local battles with the BCH.

“Forced off neytralke” has several objectives. The first and obvious: improved tactical, and sometimes strategic positions and to prepare a new offensive. It is constant fighting for the same Sands and in the vicinity of the airport, in the South – Telmanovskiy area and around Mariupol. To the West of Donetsk – Marinka and Kurakhovo. In the North – industrial area around Avdeevka and Gorlovka.

Industrial area of the Town is the largest in Eastern Europe metallurgical and chemical plants that are located in a continuous belt. Piles of metal, huge corps. Two months ago fighting in the industrial area miraculously turned into a large-scale escalation of the conflict. Then, the APU has a chance to advance from the old positions, which had been defined by the Minsk agreements, and to take a new, more profitable. The fighting quickly escalated from local to threaten the entire front line, as the VSN, eliminated the attempt to break in turn has improved the position of “on the shoulders of the retreating Ukrainians. Both sides entered the battle heavy equipment, ignoring the demands of intermediaries. This was the case, when no political and administrative shouts at no one acted, and the very military logic could turn into a new Avdiyivka debaltseve, with unpredictable consequences for the entire front. APU is pumped into the plant and continues to hold the largest out there on the front of the group, and its “pot “turned off” to the Ukrainian army as a switch electricity.

Similar situations regularly encountered in the southern sector of the front and, again, with the filing of the APU, which, among other things, trying in this kind of new fighting tactics, new method of organization of the army and involve the newly trained part. The third objective of this kind of fighting – probing defense BCH, clarification tactical issues, for example, the speed of the transport of reinforcements and supply routes, the balance of forces on certain areas. In the Luhansk direction, in particular, constantly sagging Starobeshevskiy district, area Trehizbenkah with former numbered checkpoints.

And almost every time it almost escalated into an all-out massacre. Avdiyivka – especially extreme and dangerous example, but before him were fighting for the Sands and Maryinka, Shyrokyne and telmanovskiy district. The so-called “tactical improvement front” in a situation when in some areas the distance between the positions does not exceed 100 meters, necessarily translate into a major war. Political flick will not leave anyone, if you have at hand to start preparing for the breakthrough. And that’s what all the APU attempts to “overcome neutral”.

The number of all casus Belli necessarily translate into quality. The political circumstances around remain interesting background, little understood by those who are under the Avdeevka. Yuri Biryukov only says out loud what most of the participants in the process tend not to say to hell not to call. At some point all this will come from the thread, and it will not matter – it is political decision or something somewhere went wrong. It has been repeatedly explained that in Kiev see no other solution to the situation, except the power, and the mere presence of so huge by local standards, the military group itself provokes a war. The army can’t stand in an open field just like that, she will want to “improve the tactical situation”, and the General staff continues to create plans of a lightning strike.

On the other side too, nobody sleeps. All these preparations – not a secret. Voentorg is working, and in recent years dramatically increased the influx of volunteers. This August was predicted in advance as very heavy. But there is always a chance that it will be even worse.

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