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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

APU used in the Donbass fundamentally new tactics

UN says worsening of the military situation in the Donbas, stressing that it is not noticed only because the alleged “frozen” conflict has lost interest journalists. In this environment, APU has developed a fundamentally new tactics, which at any moment could lead to a resumption of full-fledged war.

The sharp aggravation of the situation on the front line in the Donbas was noted in the report of the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). “Despite the absence in the news headlines, the fighting in the Donbass since the end of January intensified, causing additional humanitarian needs have 3.1 million people, directly affected by the conflict”, – is spoken in the document.

“It’s no secret that the General staff of Kiev stopped on the elaboration of something remotely similar to the German plan the Citadel – the attack on the Kursk bulge”

The powers of observers on humanitarian issues is evaluation of the real military situation, but it is really close to a very dangerous point. In recent days the intensity of the clashes on the most problematic parts of the front – arc of the Donetsk – Gorlovka – have grown significantly. It is noted in an average of 60-80 local clashes, shootings and shelling during the day and sometimes during one night. It lasted all of February, but in early March the situation became quite intolerable.

The intensity of the fighting in some areas is so great that even the Ukrainian side is traditionally hushed up their losses, forced daily to accept them. The loss is also in the BCH, which is also recognized openly. Under conditions of military censorship and quite reasonable control over the informational activities of individual enthusiasts is unprecedented.

In terms of information February battles were pushed back by Syria, and in the end APU from local attacks moved on to trying to break into the most important from the point of view of Kiev area – in the direction of the highway linking Donetsk and Gorlovka. Strictly speaking, this is the E50 section of the route Donetsk – debaltseve, but near the village of Panteleymonovka from it to the North goes the road to Gorlovka. For a year these strategically important routes appeared to be essentially parallel in relation to the front, and the access of Ukrainian troops is critical, because it can stop not only the transport between the major urban agglomerations of Donbass, but also – in theory – in principle, destroy the message between Donetsk and Lugansk.

Within two days APU probing the position of the BCH is practically across the arc. The shootout occurred and to the West of Donetsk – in the area of Marinka – Kurakhovo – Krasnogorovka, and in a traditionally volatile area airport – Peski – Avdeyevka, and on the North – up to Gorlovka. In the result of aggravation of the situation travel along the corridor Gorlovka – Artemovsk and through PPC “Zaitsev” was closed. Same story with passages for civilians across the front line in the direction Kurakhovo and Yelenovka. Some of them were formed kilometer traffic jams, the so-called people’s control began to filter out “soft” cars, began to fight.

At the same time, the situation escalated and conditional on the Mariupol direction. The fighting on the southern front has long been moved to the steppe, where APU regularly check the strength of the position of the BCH in the area of Starohnativka – it was there last summer happened perhaps the largest during the truce the APU attempt to break through the front. The current assaults on the Ukrainian units are more organized. If earlier it was possible to assume, that the APU has worked exclusively tactic, now we are talking about full-fledged participation in the “micronetblink” battalion groups.

Are these “microstoria” point. For example, from 5 to 7 March in the night from 7th to 8th on a site of Yasinovataya – Gorlovka was calm, peace and quiet was observed on Lugansk the direction. Presumably, the advanced battalion group took on vacation to Avdeevka, and the pressure at this time was in the vicinity of the airport and at Trinity, that is, at least sections of the arc.

For the Ukrainian army this is an obvious innovation. Earlier, the battalion group to strengthen the composition in the collision was not involved. They were generally formed in its current form over the past year, and a bit strange, armoured companies and artillery uneven “smeared” on the front, which created exceptional numerical superiority on several problem areas. It is in these areas of the APU and began now to work out the interaction “mingled” batgroup. No one can afford to really imagine what the new field organization of the APU, as heterogeneous, non-standardized battalion group will interact with each other, the more formally, the command remains with the brigade commander, subordinate to which is mixed in almost randomly on the front of almost 200 kilometers. Yet nothing good is not obtained, but it is in order and organized like “check front” to explore coordination opportunities in the new scheme.

Another practical objective in these attacks, – monitoring of the positions of the BCH. Infinite rotation, as well as the need to comply with the Minsk agreements forced the BCH to change the details of their configuration almost daily. For the APU with a simple and intuitive way to clarify the current situation – reconnaissance. Just now it all began to take shape beyond the “frozen conflict” and threatening to turn into something much more unpleasant. No longer a secret that the General staff of Kiev stopped on the elaboration of something remotely similar to the German plan the Citadel – the attack on the Kursk bulge. Donetsk is supposed to surround the two converging attacks from the North on the arc and from the South from Volnovakha with further access to the rear of BCH and next to the Russian border. In areas of possible breakthrough during the last month (and especially the last week) and gradually increasing conducted “reconnaissance”.

Yes, evidence of active preparation of a large-scale offensive on the Ukrainian side is not observed, but this does not exclude the logic of events. In addition, the location and configuration of the parts of the Mat give them the opportunity to go on the offensive for several hours without any additional deployment, and in some parts of the front to attempt to break do not require any special preparation. Another thing is that to the West of Donetsk’s employment prospects, because even in the huge group that focuses on a narrow site Marinka – Kurakhovo – Krasnogorovka, not enough to storm the city of one million on the forehead, but Kiev and this strategy does not provide. The leadership has repeatedly put before the Ukrainian generals task is not so much military as propaganda character, because such a strange disposition of APU in Kiev is considered to be justified and even useful.

According to some reports, VSN, was ordered ammo to spare, and in the last two days in the period of maximum deterioration mortar fire moved into the Ukrainian position, which instantly stopped any attempts of a breakthrough. For example, the Ukrainian positions were fired at Krasnogorovka, which, in fact, not advanced, and the rear of the 14th Ombre (the headquarters is located in Kurakhovo). Same story in the Trinity, although logistical and staff positions in the area of Avdeevka BCH is not fired. Here again is visible the strangeness of a new organizational system of the APU. Some of the newly formed battalion group in Avdiivka and in the area East from her until Gorlovka are managed from the headquarters in Kurakhovo, that is, from a completely different sector of the front, even geographically – from another zone. For example, 58-I ombr, consisting of five battalion group with artillery and a tank battalion up to a total of 5 thousand people, and three separate battalion group front of the line are controlled from Krasnogorovka that, at least, far and unreasonable.

It is difficult to speculate on the subject, why in all this more – political or purely military confrontation. And if politicians, then what: domestic squabbles or external pressure? From the point of view of Kiev global offensive must be quick and decisive, she should not leave the possibility for political maneuver. But even with the current balance of forces (UAF outnumber the VSN on key fronts almost twice) and in theory positive for the APU configuration of the front the instant the operation is not possible. The problem is the lack of confidence that it’s understood in Kiev.

BCH to provoke response, too, is futile. Yes, the militia is forced to push to the front line artillery, but wait now from the new Russia of some actions that could discredit the observance of the Minsk negotiation process, it would be short-sighted. It is possible that the APU after some time to calm down and find another way to work out the interaction of battalion groups, and verify the configuration. But in terms of the Donbass front such local battles at any moment could escalate into a protracted bloody massacre that has twice occurred during the “truce”. And we habitually expect the worst.

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