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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Ukraine threatens to freeze the Minsk process

“The main result” of the meeting of foreign Ministers of “Norman Quartet” in Berlin can be considered the statement of the head of the Ukrainian diplomacy Pavlo Klimkin of disagreement on key issues, resulting in the implementation of the “Minsk-2” can be frozen. Experts believe that against the background of actual sabotage of the agreements Ukraine is tempted to resume hostilities.

The implementation of the Minsk agreements may be frozen due to disagreement of the parties, said Wednesday the foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin. “We are unable to reach agreements on key issues,” – said the head of Kyiv diplomacy.

“The West understands that the alternative to the Minsk agreements – this is war. Kiev understands that ending the war is the suspension of aid from the West”

According to Klimkin, on the negotiations “channel four” in Berlin was discussed of holding elections in the Donbass. However, he said, on the subject of elections in Donbass “no real progress”, but the parties will work on this issue further. According to Klimkin, while unable to agree on the model of their conduct.

The Ukrainian side is traditionally accuses Russia. “Now we can’t solve all the critical problems. In particular, because of the position Russia can not agree on a model, which will be held these elections”, – quotes RIA “news” the statement Klimkin at a press conference at the conclusion of the Berlin meeting.

Bezvyhodnoe position

The Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine said that Kiev rejected Russia’s projects on election law in the Donbass.

However, as reports TASS, Klimkin has once again voiced the position of Kiev, which consists in the refusal to discuss the issue of elections in the Donbass without that Kiev considers “security during the election period, during the elections and after them”. Note that from the Kiev foreign Ministry come mixed signals: at the end of April Klimkin Deputy Vadim pristayko said that Ukraine is ready to develop a law on holding elections in the uncontrolled territories of Donbass and organize them for the summer.

Anyway, the intransigence of Ukraine paralyzed the performance of one of the key points of the Minsk-2″, which is the holding of elections in the Donbass.

Actually, that elections had become the main item on the agenda of this meeting of foreign Ministers of “Norman Quartet” – 4 may it was reported that the parties will discuss new steps “to advance the political settlement process in Ukraine in connection with local elections in the Donbass”. As reported following the meeting, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov, foreign Minister “channel four” considered the need for holding elections, but they should be subject to General Amnesty.

A “certificate of inhibition”

The Director of the Center for Eurasian studies Vladimir Kornilov called the statement of the Ukrainian foreign Ministry evidence of “inhibition of Mr Klimkin”. “The process has been frozen de facto and de jure five months ago, about what were appropriate arrangements. We know that all points of this agreement were to be completed by the end of last year. Primarily through the efforts of Klimkin and Kiev has not done anything,” said Kornilov newspaper VIEW.

He stressed that the “Normandy Quartet” calls from Kiev consent to the holding of elections in Donbas that were scheduled last year, according to the Minsk agreements.

Meanwhile, the influence of the West on Kyiv affects, otherwise the Minsk agreement “would not be long”. “The West understands that the alternative to the Minsk agreements – this is war. Kiev understands that ending the war is the suspension of aid from the West, and he doesn’t want it. It turns out that war is not beneficial to anyone and everyone interested in the conflict to freeze and keep it in this condition”, – the expert believes.

He noted, however, that it is impossible to exclude force majeure, because, “when it comes to conflict, there is enough of a lighted match from any side”. “Many are hoping for an extension of status, when there is neither peace nor war. But not everything depends on klimkina or even Angela Merkel with Francois Hollande,” – said Vladimir Kornilov.

The question of interpretations

In turn, the Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Zharihin specifies: that Kiev does not want to perform the Minsk agreement, which built enough of a compromise taking into account the positions of both sides.” “Kiev always tried to turn them inside out to prevent one-sided advantage. But in the end this did not happen. And for this reason Kiev in the face Klimkin said that the agreement to perform almost impossible,” – said the analyst.

According to Zharikhin, now the question arises of interpretations. “From the point of view of common sense it is clear that the Minsk agreement does not comply and does not want to fulfill Kiev. Curious how to behave in the European Union and the United States. Do they support the version of the Kiev that Russia and the Donbass do not want to implement the Minsk agreements, or they won’t act quite contrary to common sense and a certain guilt in freezing agreements lay with Kiev?” – asks Vladimir Zharikhin.

Zharikhin does not exclude aggravation of the situation in the region. “Now the situation is quite acute, as in Kiev, on the one hand, there is a great temptation again to take military action, and on the other he’s afraid to do it. That’s all pretty vague. I do not rule out possible escalation”, – said the expert.

“Fixed the hidden movement”

Meanwhile, the Deputy corps commander defense Ministry of DNR, Eduard Basurin said that the Ukrainian security forces moved to the line of contact between the parties over a hundred pieces of military equipment. “DPR’s intelligence continues to record the concentration of heavy weapons along the line of contact,” – said Basurin at a briefing in Donetsk news Agency on Wednesday.

Basurin claims that in total to the front deployed 21 howitzer, eight tanks, four mortar shells of 120 mm and five ACS “Carnation”. All equipment is recorded in the settlement Kurdiumivka, the village of tarasivka and Dzerzhinsk, to the North and West of Horlivka, respectively. “Also, we fixed the hidden movement of the Zaporizhia region, 30 tanks, 12 RSZO “Hail” and 30 infantry fighting vehicles in the war zone,” – said the representative of the command.

According to Eduard Basurin, the Ukrainian side is spreading among the population in frontline settlements information about the congestion in these areas troops and heavy equipment of Kiev, ready to attack. The representative of command of the DND also said it was “possible provocations of the Ukrainian security forces on may 11 in the industrial zone under the settlement Avdeevka and the settlement of zaytsevo with the use of artillery systems”.

Donetsk Agency recalled that intelligence the DNI regularly captures transfer of the Ukrainian side of military equipment in the conflict zone. Meanwhile, according to the complex of measures on implementation of the Minsk agreements, artillery guns with a caliber exceeding 100 mm should be allocated from each other by 50 km, MLRS – 70 km for MLRS “Tornado”, “Hurricane”, “Smerch”, and missiles “Point” – to 140 km In accordance with the September addition the parties had to withdraw artillery with a caliber of 100 mm, as well as tanks and mortars.

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