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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Turkey’s actions in Syria is not so much a war as a provocation

Crossing the border with Syria, the Turkish military has deepened in the 200 meters in the direction of the large Kurdish village Afrin and began to build defensive positions. From a formal point of view we can talk about the military aggression, especially waiting for her already not the first day. But on closer examination, assessment of the situation is changing: not so terrible Turk, as he is painted.

According to reports in the international media, the Turkish part of the sapper digging trenches, attracted by the bulldozers and construction equipment. Parallel to the Turkish artillery continues shelling border areas not only in the district of Afrin, but around the long-suffering Azaza. Taken together, all this indicates a new stage of confrontation, not only on the Turkish-Syrian border, but also in the area surrounded and deprived of their supply from Turkey jihadist units in the Northern part of the province of Aleppo.

“Ukrainians provide promotion of such accounts, becoming voluntary assistants of Ankara, thanks to the sincere hatred of “this Russian”

Azaz almost officially declared “the last Bastion of defense” of the Syrian opposition. From a military point of view, the issue was resolved five days ago when government forces came to the Shiite enclaves, Zahra and thus cut off the opposition from the Turkish border. All that’s happened since and is happening still, is the destruction of the encircled under appeals to Ankara for help from the opposition and the jihadists.

Afrin, in the direction which is slow and not too convincingly moved Turkish engineer parts in this context it is more important to the Kurds than Syrian government forces. And the Kurds is the main enemy of Ankara. There is reason to believe that the Kurdish group of units of the national defence party of democratic unity (it is, in particular, is famous for its women’s battalions who regularly come into the spotlight electronic media) went on contact with government forces and the Russian VKS, after which she assisted in the occupation of Afrin, in which pre-war population of about half a million people, most of which it is the Kurds.

The purpose of the attack of the Kurds can be considered not only the displacement of this land, “moderates” and jihadists, but also the access to the territory along the Turkish border, which is controlled by the ISIS. If the Kurds succeed, they can think about unification with the enclave of Kobani, successfully defended them before.

Russia’s fight against terrorism in Syria: by what means and how to apply missile and bomb adoratory frankly overslept a sharp change in the situation on the fronts and were faced with an unsolvable dilemma: either to go for a full-scale war, or just watch as government troops and the Kurds are slowly but surely roll into the desert sand the remains of parts of the jihadist and ISIS to the North-West of Aleppo and along the Syrian-Turkish border. And no doubt such outcome of the case is no longer on the side of Damascus in the region an overwhelming advantage in manpower (and no, it never was – in any sector of the front in recent months), completely destroyed or critically weakened communications of the jihadists and the actual environment of their parts after the break to Zahra. This is not to mention the participation of the Russian VKS, which is already perceived as a common element.

Daily reports of border crossings by the Turkish army in the vast majority of cases remain fake news distributed with the aim to exert pressure on Ankara rather than in Damascus, Moscow or the Kurds. For example, over to Azaz “the last Bastion of defense” declared tal Rifat. By the evening of the same day, the Kurds took tal Rifat, and propaganda machine focused on Azaz. In the same context, should be perceived and news about the transfer to Turkey of Saudi aviation. Two fighters with poorly trained pilots (which is customary for Saudis) – this, of course, a little help here, but the title looks.

“Dzhebhat EN-Nusra” and other ready to hand over large cities, as, for example, Maraa, otchityvayasj North to the last exit to the Turkish border, hoping to create not so much a solid front, how much of the propaganda story about “the heroic defense from tyrannical regime of Bashar al-Assad.” And this despite the fact that no special fighting around Aleppo or in the city itself is not observed – even in the strategic area of the plant. Government forces supported by the Russian VKS and in contact with the Kurds intelligently dissect, displace and surround jihadist and Pro-Turkish forces. As a result, the sense of retaining part of Aleppo (small, by the way, territory – less, CAO of the city of Moscow) for the opposition has long been lost.

From a military point of view there is a strategic defeat in one particular province. But right now English sources there is an amazing comparison, is surrounded by jihadist groups with “Sarajevo fighting”. It is multi-layered propaganda move. From the point of view of the West of Sarajevo, too, “fought against the totalitarian regime”, was basically a Muslim city (at the time of the siege of the Serbs or expelled, or killed), and even Jihad is someone very clever out there to announce yet. In the end, saved the Sarajevo NATO troops, and it is assumed, apparently, to do with the jihadist part of Aleppo.

This is very similar to a paraphrase of the “Lord of the flies” by William Golding, where it rolled down to the primitive aggression of the world trapped on a desert island boys is saved by a man in a British naval uniform. “Lord of the flies” taught in every English school in the world as an illustration of the struggle between good and evil, but the ethnic composition of Syria and modern tactical schemes – not every military school. Hence the monstrous historical analogies to justify something that defies justification.

The supply chain of the IG Syrian oil in Tortilleria shelling occupied by the Kurds along the border don’t look “massive” as it is called by the jihadists. In General, the Turkish army is still nothing significant has been done, and not the fact that he was going. Allegations of partial mobilization of reservists come from South or Central Anatolia, where it would be wise and in General are included in the plans of the General staff, but mostly from the rich cities on the black sea coast. Specifically, from representatives of national minorities, tied to trade with Russia and strongly concerned about the situation. This is another story about how the Turkish propaganda machine built in that part of it that focused on speaking. Messages about the Turkish mobilization and the imminent retaliation “this Russian” throw the Azerbaijanis, and Ukrainians spread. They are also – herd, bulk – provide a promotion of such accounts, becoming voluntary assistants of Ankara, thanks to the sincere hatred of “this Russian”.

It has repeatedly said that foreign policy of Turkey too many tantrums and personal factors. But today, the digging of trenches along the border seems to be the maximum that can offer Ankara in the conflict zone. In this two-hundred-meter penetration into Syrian territory is not so much “act of aggression”, as the Turkish sappers attempt to adjust for possible line of defense: they chose to position themselves better, and moreover, good in the desert state border – the concept is largely conditional. It is possible that this decision was taken at the level of the commander of sapper company, not even the brigade commander.

While there is no particular reason to believe that the said Turkey’s actions mean the invasion of Syria or even preparing for it. Another thing is that Damascus may well perceive the actions of engineer company as aggression. Historical examples show that to start a full-fledged military action and quite small. But it is unlikely Damascus will attack a Turkish engineer company without the approval of the overall strategic planning. In the end, this is not the area of responsibility of the government army, and the Kurds claim to separatist thinking.

A General climate of nervousness is forcing you to translate any item in the scale strategic developments and to sharpen its propaganda. Including dying from jihadist groups. And Damascus, and Moscow has enough own sources of information to evaluate the Turkish actions, intentions and possibilities in real time, without relying on exaggeration of the jihadists. And the Kurds, most likely, also are in direct contact with major military centers in Syria. The main thing – not to twitch.

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