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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Continuation of notes for Russian intellectuals: about the great future of Russia


As with every Russian intellectual, first and foremost for me, the question remains about the fate of Russia. Thinking about it, I always remembered the words of Lenin: “Who takes up particular issues without prior decision of the General, he will inevitably at every step for yourself to unconsciously stumble on these General questions. But to stumble blindly upon them in each particular case means to condemn their policies on the worst vacillation and lack of principle”.

If you think about the General problems of Russia’s future, we must start with an analysis of the future of our planet. This is my article in “MK” on April 22 “the Great alternative of the XXI century”.

If civilization is quite obvious the two main perspectives — the development of the potentials of the postindustrial order, and the transition to an alternative civilization, that these perspectives — the basis for a conversation about the fate of Russia. This is what the great Russian economist of the twentieth century, N. D.Called Kondratiev long waves, and the theory of modern futurology — road map.

The source I believe the issue of Russia’s place in the world. If we discard all polyvariance, there are two main. First, Russia must be one of the great powers. Second: Russia must be “with someone” — driven.

In times of Kievan Rus the first Russian state accepted orientation on the lead — Byzantium. This role gave Russia a slave and religion and culture of antiquity, but not saved from defeat by the Mongols.

And then Western Russia and Eastern Russia continued the line of slaves. West with Lithuania and Poland. East in the Golden Horde. But if Western Rus, resisting, obeying, remained mostly in the role of slave, then in the Moscow Principality was formed the idea to substitute as a slave in an independent role. The concept: “Moscow — the third Rome”. Idea of its way. The idea of great power.

It is under the banner of the great power policy of Muscovy was able to unite the Russian lands. But sitting on two chairs — knights and nobles — could not become a pillar of great power in the seventeenth century, and the result — Confusion.

The salvation of Russia it is due to the fact that the power of Muscovy was replaced by the great power of the Romanov Empire. But the Empire, trying to sit on two chairs — feudal and capitalist, failed to provide to the twentieth century within the country an effective framework of great power. And perished in the storm three Russian revolutions.

Lenin and the Bolsheviks were able to keep Russia, changing the model of a great power. They have chosen the policy of Russia as the first, and then the main country of the future of the planet — world socialism. The course included great power in a new form.

But the internal inconsistency of the model of state-bureaucratic socialism has led to the fact that the price of Soviet success was exceptional. As a result, insufficient incentives for scientific and technological progress in the era of the technological revolution.

Therefore, the Soviet Union, old Russia, failed to provide effective domestic power base. And the Soviet Union eventually collapsed.

Yeltsin rallied around him and part of the former Soviet bureaucracy, confusion, chose to abandon not only bureaucratic socialism but also of great power. Chose the path of the slave.

This policy of the ruling circles of Russia turned out to be a course of compromise. Course submission. As a result, compradorism. His results are as follows. Russia has decreased significantly and population, and geographically. For the first time tens of millions of Russian history remained beyond the borders of the Motherland.

But it would be a serious mistake, like other advocates, to consider the decade of Yeltsin with the period of “the Troubles”, the “dashing nineties”.

First, managed to accomplish — even in the worst of the possible options — nomenklatura-oligarchic — a great historical turning point — out of bureaucratic socialism.

Secondly, the transition to post-industrialism succeeded without the excesses and atrocities of the Russian revolt, without the blood of the civil war.

Thirdly, in the Yeltsin decade was able to maintain and continue Gorbachev’s perestroika brought freedom of the press, Assembly, demonstration.

Fourthly, the country was trying to establish democracy — with a separation of powers, competing parties and influential opposition.

Fifth, managed to retain the main part of Russia as a great country with her living in the main part of the Russian people.

Sixthly, Russia remained a nuclear power.

Generally speaking, created a number of important elements of a postindustrial order.

At the same time, a decade of Yeltsin no genuine market and genuine competition as the driving force of the economy in Russia has not appeared. There was a Moscow Cherkizon.

There is no recovery of the real economy did not happen. Large-scale growth of welfare of the masses was not there.

All decade of Yeltsin’s Russia were held at first in the credits, and then on rent from exported natural raw materials.

Comprador Russia could not have a future. It was clear that from her start in search of a better fate to be separated first, national autonomy, and then and Russian regions.

And at this critical time in the person of Yeltsin, his folk, the peasant, the Russian part took over. He bravely decided on three measures. The first is to recognize their inability to be a leader and voluntarily go to retire. The second exhibit from the Kremlin Gaidar their comprador friends. The third is to transfer power to the most Pro-Russian configured in their environment.

Vladimir Putin, as President, showed wisdom, turned the wheel of Russia’s centuries old great power.

However, we must see the reality. And it is that struggle of two General courses continued in Russia until now.

At the core of the great catastrophes of the past was one and the same, repetitive: the foreign policy power was not provided to main — internal Foundation. If now, restoring the rate to great power, not to take into account this, you could do it again.

Russia has only one version of the future — the preservation of itself as a great power. But in the XXI century requires a new model of great power. The most important thing is decisive, efforts to form a new model of great power of Russia to the XXI century.

The new power of Russia in XXI century

If the main problem of the Russian great power in the past has always been the weakness of its internal database, it is only natural thinking about the future, focus attention on the internal supports of the Russian great power.

Of course, she, as in the past, requires military force. As said the Emperor Alexander III, Russia has only two reliable allies — its army and its Navy. It is now a modern army, the rocket-nuclear shield.

The second pillar is resource. The size of the territory and natural resources, the size of the population. Exports of hydrocarbon and other raw materials. Effective development of annual increase of wood in Russian forests, millions of tons of valuable renewable raw materials. It is necessary to create a national program and national centre for the exploitation of the riches of the Russian Arctic. In the future of exceptional importance will become fresh water, especially its stocks in the lake, including for export. We have enormous potential to generate electricity from the sun and wind, tides, intracrustal heat.

The third block of social support of a great power. The friendship and solidarity of peoples. The level of the elite and its leaders.

It is necessary to radically improve the gene pool of Russia. It is necessary to ensure not just population growth, and the emergence of a completely healthy new generation. To mobilize all the forces of science, to know all about the health of the future child even before birth. And become a country in which the health of the nation candidates for the Paralympic games will be the only victims of misfortunes.

For social recovery, Russia needs to return a significant portion of our population on the earth. To make Russia a largely “one-storey”.

Our people have lived on earth, was formed for her, protected her, pouring his blood. The Soviet system has bestemail people, destroyed its roots. It is necessary to return everyone to earth. For every family to have a nest, with “the cherished bench at the gate” for each child. That children are not hunched at the plate, and raised vegetables, animals and poultry. To retirees languished near stupid TV shows, and could — a measure of the availability of forces to work on your yard. And adults the Internet will give the opportunity for two and three days to work “on the house”. Generally speaking — for a new great power to root people.

It is necessary to strengthen the basis for restoring historical Russia — its food independence.

The fourth pillar of great power — the economy of scientific and technological progress. It is necessary to allocate important for the future of the industry and the regions and to mobilize in these areas resources from a centralized programs, small and medium businesses. The task of the authorities — development of guidance on the desired directions of activity of small business and creation of all conditions for it. Forty years ago I was amazed at how the Finnish authorities hunted for the ugly stalls, but oriented to small businesses in preparation for participation already anticipated in the sectors of mining in the Arctic oil and gas — from lingerie and shoes to highly complex devices.

All these four pillars, as mathematicians say, necessary but not sufficient to ensure the sustainability of the new imperialistic Russia in the XXI century.

What can become the mainstay of the great power of Russia in the XXI century? Only that will make it indispensable to mankind in this century.

In the twenty-first century the future of humanity is linked to scientific and technical progress. Therefore, in this region we must look for the main pillar of the great power of Russia.

Technological progress is a complex theoretical science, applied science, development, experimental production.

In each of the stages of this complex we have examples of obvious success. But still it is necessary to allocate an area where we can be first steadily, constantly, and — significantly — without a significant cost.

Such a sphere there is theoretical science. History has shown that only in Western Europe and Russia has formed and developed in theoretical science.

And the main focus should be to secure Russia’s role one of the world centers of theoretical science.

Unfortunately, now we are so short. The reorganization of the Academy of Sciences has not advanced in the first place theoretical science.

And what could be better than a shameful history with the great mathematician Grigory Perelman, for which in present-day Russia, there was no place. Meanwhile, in the XVIII century, the great mathematician of the Western Europe, Leibniz moved to work in Russia.

About the current attitude of Russia towards science clearly says and held a discussion about whose name should represent Russia. The final list of candidates was not the names of our world-renowned Nobel laureates Ivan Pavlov, Pyotr Kapitsa, Lev Landau. Not even Yuri Gagarin, whose name symbolizes the greatest event of the twentieth century.

In this disregard of science, imposed on all major television channels of mass-culture, forming masses of various “plankton” — office plankton, plankton TV, Internet-plankton, plankton sports fans — the transformation of Russia into one of the world centers of theoretical science will be a heavy task.

Instead of Russia with respect to science, should appear in the country, where the main stratum of society — the intelligentsia, and in it the main part — scientists. Where’s the kid with the makings of a scientist is already in kindergarten. Where the field of theoretical Sciences is the most prestigious in the society. Where has all that got Russia today, Grigory Perelman. Where pay and conditions of work and life of the scientist three times, five times better than anywhere else on the planet. Where the Governor will be primarily responsible for the achievements of the region in the field of theoretical science. Where banks will primarily look for investments among the students, postgraduates, scientists, laboratories, institutes.

The great power of Russia in XXI century — is the power of intelligence. The power of the intelligentsia. This great power of Russia did not know.

Mandatory reforms. Radical reform. The era of reforms

After the resignation of Boris Yeltsin fifteen years. A considerable period. A lot has been achieved. A symbol of the achievements were the restoration of peace in Chechnya, the revival of the modern military-industrial complex, modernisation of the Armed forces, the peaceful reunification of the Crimea with Russia.

But I must honestly admit that we do not yet have a country aspiring to the XXI century on the power.

The main, deep Foundation of all the country’s problems — the duality of the current system.

One part is reformed (bad, often very bad, and reformed), post-industrial.

But not less than 60% — all that is called non-productive sphere: health, education, science, culture, sports, remains largely old Soviet. And bureaucracy mostly, too.

As we remember from “the Twelve chairs”, Ellochka led a heroic fight against arrogant Vanderbilly. And our government leads a heroic struggle with the fluctuation of oil prices and the ruble exchange rate.

The state is sick all diseases of socialism — free, lack of competition, lack of interest, the rule of officials, lack of funds and inefficient use of those available.

In some ways Russia today reminds me of Russia in the eighties of the XIX century. Then ended the twentieth anniversary of the first complex of the Great reforms of 1861. But Alexander II was assassinated, the new reform has not begun. Russia was left to sit on two chairs: the feudal and the capitalist. And it ended with revolutions.

To sit on two chairs is impossible. It is known from experience of the NEP in the USSR. This is known and attempts, in General, promising reforms of Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Kosygin.

To overcome the “two stools” the necessary reforms.

Try to identify the main blocks of reform.

First. The changing role of the intelligentsia in Russian society. If we really want to create a new power based on the concept of “Russia is one of the world’s major centers of theoretical science and scientific-technical progress”, we must inevitably come to the conclusion about the necessity of transformation of the intelligentsia in the main, is a leading segment of society. To the conclusion about the necessity of bureaucracy, or using a Soviet concept, “dispossession” of the bureaucracy.

Creativity is always the search for something new, it is always “failure”. It is always a violation of equality. All kinds of creativity — and research in particular is the variety, this inequality.

So instead of a society in which the chief was the famous principle of equality, must be a society with institutionalized diversity with institutionalized inequality. And the original is the separation of people of intellectual labor and intellectuals.

And as a first step towards strengthening the role of the intellectuals it would be possible to restore the principle of Gorbachev”. Gorbachev would never have got — even with the free alternative elections with a clear focus on radical reform of a significant part of the deputies of the first Congress of people’s deputies, if not the intelligentsia has allocated one-third of the seats. Now, you should have at least half of the seats in the Duma and the Federation Council, and all regional and local authorities to secure for intellectuals.

Second. Russia needs from the principle of national-territorial autonomy to go to the principle of cultural-national autonomy.

Migration of national cadres in the country is huge. The nation scattered. All who consider themselves part of a nation, form a across the country national unions: local, regional, national, whose members pay a special tax to their Union.

Across Russia in any school one day a week should be given to ethnic communities to explore their language, culture, history. When communities are theatres, museums, clubs, Newspapers.

And in any part of Russia any citizen will be able to solve their national problems.

Third. The necessary complex of measures on ensuring social justice and in the end, stability in society. Russian mentality is imbued with ideas of justice.

And we should be an example for all mankind. Need at least four groups of measures:

Establishing limits of the property of member companies.

Setting a limit on the amount consumed for personal needs part of their annual income.

Setting a limit on the amount of the inheritance, and as a whole, and for each heir. I can not recall the wonderful initiative of Vladimir Olegovich Potanin. Such knowledge is necessary to protect the laws, to mention a prominent award-winning, permanently illuminate on television.

And last. Providing the Creator of an income to dispose of partially right and partially participate in decisions about the investment of that part of his income or his property, which he is alienated. For example, through the creation of a Fund in his name.

Fourth: political reforms.

It is necessary to overcome the monopoly of the ruling class. It is necessary from the current system of “party of power — opposition” to move to a system of two competing parties of power. Such is the world of experience.

You need to create Plenipotentiary of the primary link, the Foundation of the state. It is also a world experience. A. I. Solzhenitsyn offered to restore the Zemstvos. I think district councils and communities as the real opponents of the bureaucracy.

You need to ensure the independence of the courts. Using the ideas of one of the best laws of the Russian court, designed in 1917 by the Kerensky government. This act of judges of the first level — world — is elected by the people. And judges at all other levels the judges themselves elected at their congresses. The courts and your budget out of the money “trial tax.”

It is necessary to ensure the full independence and the media.

Need a system of civil service, in which 90% of administrators and their careers do not depend on the outcome of the election. And to be on the same post employee not exceeding ten years.

The public sector in the economy need to distance themselves from political companies. The heads of state and municipal organizations — from “Gazprom” to the town’s ice skating rink — needs to be independent from the Executive branch.

For the solution of long term problems need the introduction — the Constitution — the Chief of the planning Commission of Russia. To have long-term problems of the future appeared curator.

Gleitman, should take into account the great experience of the first places in the world of long — term planning of the Soviet Committee for electrification and the Soviet Gosplan.

There should be a procedure of formation of such a body not under the government and not in representative bodies, as well as an independent structure. For example, in Gleitman Russia should automatically be entered ex-first persons of the country: President, Prime Minister, heads of chambers, and who held their posts at least a dozen years, governors and Ministers. In Gaitlan should delegate their representatives Academy of science, creative unions, associations of intellectuals. And finally, Gaitlan must elect half of its members. It will be the nerve center of the country, not involved in the current policy.

The key to successful operation of Pamplona — it staffing. From the practice of the army leadership is well aware of how different the giants are the development of strategic plans from the geniuses of tactical command.

No one is more distant from the long term planning of the economy than supporters of the economic theories, who believe in the XXI century, the main “invisible hand of the market”. The ideology of the market economy (if it was not for chairs), in principle, alien to even talk about the strategy of economic development.

No one is more distant from the long-term planning than Finance professionals are accustomed and able to look at everything through money glasses, diopter which change with exchange rates. It is no accident in the Soviet time were five-year plans for the economy, but only annual budgets. Not by chance in the first Soviet on strategic planning — fee for electrification — it was not the financial giants of science. But the plans of the NEP was passed to them. The financier is great as the detective and is totally unsuitable for the long voyage.

And even dangerous to long-term planning “chameleons”, able to work at the offices of the “marketeers kamikaze”, and the statists, and anyone.

In fact, and the administrative system, and administrative process needs a “chameleon”, willing to immediately implement any of the Directive. But such speaking terms Russian Troika, “the crotch” only illiterate in the management can admit to the fact that the call strategy.

The new power of Russia is the great power of democracy of a new type.

Fifth: a set of economic reforms.

Have disaggregated all the giants and remove the main basis of a monopoly.

Need to ensure that small and medium business became prevalent.

But the most necessary, the most urgent, the most urgent task of Russia today is to reform the non-productive sphere.

In this area it is necessary to do everything that needs to step out of bureaucratic socialism. To carry out privatization. Go from total nationalization to mandatory post-industrialism in three equilibrium units: independent private, independent collective, state part.

Need to make money that the company allocates for teachers or physicians, were the first citizens. And then from them — teachers and doctors, bypassing officials. And the main will be the judgment of the citizens themselves. For this we need all the money allocated by the state, say, to education, to distribute to citizens in the form of checks for education.

In non-production sectors should enter the competition and for these checks, and for the extra money of the consumer. Then it will increase efficiency. The best school will be that parents will choose.

Same thing with public health. And with universities. And with the culture.

At every step we are afraid of: “You want to make a fee free!” Nothing is free. All these systems live on our money. But the money taken from us officials. Then they dispose of them. And according to the same scheme: at their discretion and in the light of their interests.

At every step, we are lying. Free allegedly needed for the masses. It is the basis of justice.

But it is more than obvious that the boiler is free of melting, and will melt. Especially in light of the growth of spending on science and defense.

Further, the gratuity is not justice. This is a free hospital bed for the ordinary citizen and the free ward for the bureaucracy.

Gratuity — government support of the bureaucracy, controlling the supposedly free. And never will be a free vote of people receiving salary from the budget of the boiler. Not by chance dozens of years in many democratic countries, the recipients of state salaries did not have the right to participate in voting, what I myself observed during the elections in the U.S. President D. Carter.

A Democrat who does not understand that without the divestiture of non-productive sphere are impossible the independence of the main part of the intelligentsia and, accordingly, there can be no genuine democracy cannot be called a Democrat.

And still very, very important. The deregulation of the service sector will free the state from counting the number of places in kindergartens, from concerns about the quality of the bed sheets in hospitals. Freed, the government will throw all forces on solving the main problems of Russia. Go from there where you can do without it, and focus there, without a state where success is impossible.

The new power of Russia in XXI century is the great power of the new, completely post-industrial economy — and in the sphere of production and circulation, and in the non-manufacturing sector.

***

In the most critical, the most fateful days of the war with Nazi Germany in 1941, when the German officers saw in the binoculars of the tower of the Kremlin, Stalin was able to understand himself and to convince Russian and all the allied Nations that in the first place it is necessary to put the challenge of great power Russia. The War — Patriotic. We are talking about the fate of the great Russian people.

And today the situation is no less acute. We are talking about the preservation of Russia in the XXI century. The majority of ordinary people, not intellectuals, well all feel and support in the Kremlin raised the banner of a great power. And the debt of the Russian intellectuals — if they’re Russian to find answers to the question “what to do?”. About it — these notes, written on the basis of my report at the jubilee Congress of Free economic society of Russia, dedicated to his 250th anniversary. But there is for Russian intellectuals are not less important problem: how to do?

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