To the population every day more and more difficult to pay off the debts. According to the National Bureau of credit histories, April 1, debt of citizens increased to 27.13%. For comparison, in October 2015, they accounted for 22.7%. However, over the past six months, the burden has increased for all categories of borrowers. How long the Russians will have to tighten their belts, “MK” asked the experts.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
EXPERTS OF “MK”:
Alena Afanasyeva, a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB:
“These data reflect the status of highly indebted borrowers, which is only getting worse. Here still plays a role is still negative dynamics of real disposable income. It seriously limits the chances of a gradual exit from the “debt bondage”. Due to the ongoing growth of inflation more than a third of the population spends the bulk of the funds for food and housing. In the end, the “available funds” actually does not remain. In addition, citizens who come under attack as part of a major cost optimization of the corporate sector is left without means of livelihood, not to mention the repayment of loans. Until we see growth in employment, reducing inflation and increasing real wages, the situation will only get worse. Most likely, the negative dynamics will be observed for at least quarter.”
Daniil Kirikov, managing partner Kirikov Group:
“As the government is neither amused themselves and the people hope for the restoration of the Russian economy, unfortunately the numbers say otherwise. So for the first quarter of 2016 national GDP sank by 1.4% compared to the same period last year. But this is not the limit. The decline will continue in the next few years due to the lack of sufficient incentives for development. As a consequence, real disposable household incomes will continue to decline. However, the government persistence proves that we are waiting for growth. Moreover, according to the officials, already in the IV quarter of this year. The government is in no hurry to say goodbye to illusions and relies on higher oil prices. Taken by the authorities efforts to patch holes in the budget, at that time, as small and medium businesses in need of extra possibilities. One should not wait for the growth of the retail loan portfolio. It will resume only by 2017-2018 — now the population is unable to sustain the debt load, which averages about 39 % of the family income. Does not add optimism also tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, aimed at reducing inflation. The result is currently lending for the Russians remains unprofitable”.
Stanislav Novikov, managing Director, BCS Ultima:
“What we see now is largely a result of the influence of the low base effect. In the second half of 2014 and in 2015, banks have greatly reduced lending, which naturally affected the volume of issuance. Accordingly, one can hardly say that the current statistics is unequivocally negative phenomenon. That is, the activity by the most creditworthy borrowers, on the contrary shows some recovery in the economy. This year this significant debt growth is unlikely to continue, as banks generally prefer to stick to a balanced policy of risk management. Not increasing the loan portfolio too aggressively, to avoid the growth of delay. The limiting factor for the growth of the debt load is also a decline in consumer activity of the population. Until the end of the year the increase of delay is unlikely to exceed 4-5%”Related posts: