Ministry of economic development proposes two years to limit the growth of salaries in the country to exit the recession and achieve GDP growth of 4.5% by 2019. The Department also expects rapid growth in corporate profits, which, on a plan of officials, will be a key driver of investment.
photo: Natalia Muslinkina
The Ministry of economic development (MED) has published an updated scenario forecast socially-economic development till 2019, writes “Kommersant”. It was rewritten on the basis of a constant average annual prices of oil at $40 per barrel (previously expected moderate growth in prices to $50 by 2018), the newspaper notes.
“This, according to the economy Ministry, will increase the number of poor from 13.1% in 2015 to 13.7% at the end of 2017, with a peak in 2018 at the level of 13.9% and a real return of income and the number of poor by the year 2015 in 2019”, — the newspaper writes.
The purpose of “belt-tightening” is to overcome the transitional period until 2019, when investments under the plan will increase to 24.1% of GDP. Their sources in this circuit will be not so much savings, how much of corporate profits, which in 2018 is expected to grow (without devaluation effects) by 12%, and in 2019 — by 10.8%.
The main paradox of this scenario is that the transition to economic growth, paid “hungry” for the population in 2017, in the calculations of the Ministry of economy accompanied by fairly rapid reduction in employment falling to pre-crisis 5.6% of total unemployment, the newspaper said.