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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Donald trump became a favorite of Moscow, but while growing confrontation

Russia recently became the object of constant attention of American political scientists and journalists. Many of them are concerned about how the new President – whether under Clinton, or trump – will shape US relations with Russia.

photo: AP

In America, noted that Moscow “rooting for trump”. The conservative newspaper The Washington Times wrote: “Russia, which welcomed trump’s skepticism towards NATO and expressed their desire to work with President Putin, is probably the only country that makes the choice clearly in favor of Ms. Clinton. Former first lady and Senator is associated in Moscow with the “reset button” with which help it is early in his career the Secretary of state was trying to restart relations with Russia; both sides view this attempt as a failure”.

As for trump, the American media spoke in detail about his exchange of pleasantries with the President of the Russian Federation. “When you call outstanding, is always good, especially when it comes from someone who stands at the head of Russia”, – said trump in an interview with reporters of the TV channel MSNBC. And added that Putin is a “leader, not like what we have in our country.”

Putin is not simple, and trump is unpredictable

However, the online resource GlobalPost, which specializiruetsya on international politics, Trump advises to temper euphoria about Putin: “the Russian leader much more calculating than it seems. And to trump it, probably not so much in love as someone can think.” The following is the opinion of Matthew Rojansky, Director of the Washington Kennan Institute: Putin is just the official signaled Washington that he is closely watching the American presidential campaign in 2016. Putin knows that all of the involved candidates, trump is the only one who criticized Russia for interfering in Ukraine. Trump actually believes that America should not be so deeply involved in European Affairs, and one time he even said that Crimea is “the problem of Europe.”

However, Rojansky notes, many Russian observers fear that in its desire to “re-make America great” Donald trump will go – if you become President, the path of revanchism in American-Russian relations. However, according to Rojansky, Putin will be able to its pretty easy to neutralize, using exaggerated ambitions of this person. Trump wants to go down in history as the man who returned Russia into the fold of normal cooperation with the West? Putin will allow him to do it – in exchange for the fact that Moscow “will not have to pay a heavy price for Ukraine and Crimea”.

But trump is not that card, analysts warn, which can be placed (though his name in English means “trump card”). No wonder the establishment Republican party frantically looking for a way out of the situation in which the nomination trump on the upcoming party Congress became almost inevitable. The speaker of the house of representatives Paul Ryan refused to support the candidacy of trump, and two former President Bush – father and son – will not participate in the party Congress: a scandal! There will miss and Senator John McCain, former presidential candidate, and another ex-candidate, MITT Romney, and many other prominent Republicans. They do not want to be present during the anointing of the marginal threat in his smug ignorance, and most importantly – its unpredictability.

On the one hand, trump’s statement that he will give the command to shoot down Russian planes approaching dangerously close to an American military installations, can be considered his usual outrageous arrogance. On the other hand, tomorrow he may say something diametrically opposite, and the next day something completely different. A 180 degree and another 90 for him – the norm. And on the third hand, he may, by virtue of its incompetence and arrogance, to carry out the threat in practice.

Respect yourself he will make?

Newsweek magazine quoted trump that the dangerous war games of Russia – the Kremlin’s lack of respect for Obama. Instead of having to call Putin and put the question squarely, Obama “plays Golf or there is something else,” trump says. According to the press Secretary of the White house, the two leaders talked twice with each other in the last few weeks. However, as Newsweek notes, the protocols of these conversations there is no mention of the topic of incidents of overflights of American ships and aircraft Russian aircraft.

Internet resource huffingtonpost.com writes that trump is convinced: “With Russia to reduce the tensions, but from a position of strength”. A similar position “prospective presidential candidate” of the Republican party, as he calls himself, preaches against China. And also in relation to European and Asian military allies, which he wants to make you shell out for the defense to not parasitized at the expense of America.

There are, of course, and more exotic characters from the Republicans – in terms of relations with Russia. For example, Pat Buchanan is currently a columnist and a former Director of communications in the White house under Ronald Reagan and, subsequently, three times failed presidential candidate (twice he tried unsuccessfully to get the nomination from the Republican party, and the third time was nominated from a marginal third party, the Reformist). Buchanan suddenly turned into “understanding Putin”, as they call such people in Germany. He said that autocratic rule – a phenomenon in Russia is not new, and traditional and wonder: “What happened to our country?” – referring to America’s inability to find a common language with Russia. He said that “Crimea is closer to him (Putin) than Puerto Rico to us,” and wondered with a fright of the United States “give military guarantees to the three small Baltic countries”. And reminds: “Putin is our ally in the fight against ISIS. He had no problem to bomb ISIS”.

Confrontational “dialogue”

It is clear that for such statements Buchanan undergoes in America ostracism – some even called it “Putin’s hirelings”. But no one can deny that America has a problem with Russia that this problem should be solved and that it must be solved primarily through dialogue. And that dialogue is not enough: for example, as noted by The Washington Times, “from the moment when the Russian forces began to provoke the us ships and planes in Eastern Europe, there was contact between the Ministers of defense, Ashton Carter and Sergei Shoigu”.

While the dialogue, if it can be called a dialogue, happens on the level of mutual declarations of hostile measures against the other party. Moscow announced the creation of three new divisions numbering up to 30,000 troops that will be placed along the Western and southern borders of Russia as a response to the build-up of NATO forces. Literally the day before the head of the Pentagon Ashton Carter said that NATO is considering placing in the Baltic States and Poland replacement of the military contingent, consisting of four battalions, i.e. about 4,000 people. This will be in addition to scheduled on February next year location of the armoured brigade of the US army with a strength of 4,200 people. Carter also has held recently talks with Minister of defence of Denmark Peter Christensen on the topic of accommodation in the Baltic States, the Danish F-16 fighters.

The point here is, of course, not in the numbers. Obviously in full swing to return to a military confrontation since the cold war. Will the new American administration is still unknown, headed by some President – to take effective steps to stop this dangerous process? Whether Moscow wants to turn from confrontation to peaceful coexistence on the basis of observance of contracts – as it was in the 70s? And will the West and the East today to trust each other – at least in as much as it was 40 years ago?

While some questions…

New York.

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