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Monday, October 24, 2016

Armenia does not want to substitute Russia: Karabakh remains unrecognized

Thursday almost happened what many Armenians expected from the beginning of 1990-ies. The Armenian government supported the bill recognizing independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and even handed it to a vote in Parliament, which will take place on may 10. But the recognition of the breakaway Republic could wage a war between the two States, to the limit pumped up arms, and to put Moscow in a very disadvantageous position, when the choice between Baku and Yerevan will become inevitable. So at the last moment Armenia has decided to adjust its position.

photo: AP

After weighing all the “pros” and “cons” to the end of the day Yerevan, apparently, decided to replay his decision. It turns out that in the explanation to the conclusion of the government said that the bill can be adopted only in the case if Armenia and Artsakh push external factors. Why in this case it was necessary to come to the meeting and transmit the document for consideration in the Parliament, the government have not explained.

The bill prepared by the deputies of the opposition parliamentary faction “Heritage” and “Armenian national Congress” party Zaruhi Postanjyan and Hrant Bagratyan. Earlier deputies repeatedly tried to push this decision, but still never they managed to go through the government discussion.

Confident in their colleagues in the Executive branch of government of Armenia the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov said that you should not pay much attention to the bill, put forward by the two opposition MPs. The Minister noted that Yerevan has guaranteed his commitment to a peaceful settlement of the conflict. When it became known that the government of Armenia approved the bill, press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin on this issue had not been consulted.

But the foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan is accustomed to always expect the worst when it comes to the fate of Stepanakert. So there have stated that Yerevan has ignored the decisions of the UN security Council and began preparations for a complete breakdown in the political settlement of the conflict. The Ministry said that if the Armenian authorities still recognize Artsakh, the responsibility for the consequences will fall on them.

“MK” has found out from the experts what the outcome of the Saga with the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic:

Stepan GRIGORYAN, head of Analytical center on globalization and regional cooperation, political scientist:

— Yerevan earlier believed that it is necessary to continue negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk group, which worked well. But after the international community has made unequivocal condemnation of Baku during the war that he unleashed on 2 April, the mood in Armenian society began to change drastically. The current bill on recognition of Nagorno Karabakh should be considered not only parliamentary, but also governmental initiative. This document plays a moderating role when Azerbaijan once again tried to seize Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia will immediately recognize it, because if the international community is unable to restrain the aggressor, the Armenians will defend themselves. Now this is important, because of Baku’s active smuggling on the border of Karabakh troops. While Yerevan remains committed to the negotiation process and therefore will not be no reason to recognize Artsakh unilaterally, since it will ruin all the progress that has been achieved since 1994. The bill may be in the Parliament as long as necessary. Even the question to be submitted for urgent consideration, can be transported, deposited, and so on.

Vladimir NOVIKOV, senior researcher of Institute socially-political researches of the black sea countries:

— This gesture Yerevan shows that the process of political settlement of the conflict with Azerbaijan was at a standstill and now we are talking about the major breakdown of the ceasefire since 1994. But such actions of Armenians can put the entire region on the brink of disaster. If Armenia recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh, and none of the world powers would not support her decision, it would mean an actual failure of the negotiation process, because Azerbaijan is using this law as an argument for withdrawal from the Minsk group. Moreover, Yerevan will become an official participant in the war with Azerbaijan Baku, Stepanakert independence and thus put Russia at a disadvantage. On the one hand, Moscow would have to fulfill its Alliance commitments in the CSTO and an attack on Azerbaijan, and on the other she can say that Yerevan had taken a unilateral decision and therefore to support it is not required. But then hide the crisis one of the integration systems in the former Soviet Union will be impossible.

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