On Wednesday evening, ISIS militants broke into the rear of the Syrian army recaptured al-Shaer – the largest gas field in Syria, the supply of CHP in HOMS and Damascus. This proves once again that, although ISIS were gradually forgotten, the war on terror is far from a complete victory and a dying group is still able to give us some unpleasant surprises.
Huge help the explosive rise of ISIS at the time had a myth about the invincibility of the supporters of Abu Bakr. This myth was destroyed before intervened in the conflict Russia, thanks to the efforts of, for example, the government of the Iraqi army and the Kurds. Last used to take only as cannon fodder, now, with them forced to reckon an increasing number of players. By the way, that the leadership of the people’s protection units Kurds agreed with the militants on the transfer home the bodies of the Russian military, Alexander Prokhorenko, who died heroically at Palmyra. But that was the moment when Russia took the decision to start large-scale military operation in Syria, the case of the “Caliphate” really went downhill.
“Citizens” quasi-state, whose prosperity and well-being periodically “boasted” gilowska propaganda, now sometimes nothing to eat”
During the stay of the Russian HQs and land experts in the conflict zone the military landscape of the confrontation in the triangle of Damascus – opposition – ISIS has changed dramatically. Before the militants of the “Islamic state” could almost seamlessly to capture all the new settlements in the territory of the increasingly weakening Syria. Assad’s army was forced to fight back from two enemies – ISIS and the army of “moderate militants”, carefully pushing government troops. Clashes with the ISIS “al-Nusra Dzhebhat” and units of “Jaish al-Islam” reminiscent of the clashes of two fighting dogs during the mating games, but were not fatal to any of the parties.
By the end of Russian military intervention, the Islamists were forced to almost completely reformat the tactics of warfare, as well as to part with a whole caravan tidbits, pipelines and control points. During the operation, FSI Russian managed to carry out three tasks: to stop and to stop the expansion of ISIL, the General staff to give Syria a chance to save their state and finally, to demonstrate the capabilities of the modern Russian army, at the same time “break in” modern methods of warfare. In this case we are talking not only about the purely military strikes on the “Caliphate”, but no less painful propaganda attacks affecting, however, not only ISIS.
To date, a number of Western experts have admitted his mistake in assessing the capacity of the Russian army, but before the beginning of operations in Syria, they stubbornly adhered to the view that Russian is unable to conduct a full-scale operation is far from the Russian border. In fact, videoconferencing has demonstrated the ability to strike at enemy territory, while being in range for retaliation. Fighting departures of the Russian bombers has contributed to the detection and destruction of channels of delivery of oil from the ISIS in the neighboring state, had been destroyed several strongholds of the Islamist and “moderate” militants antiacidos suffered significant damage in equipment and manpower. Given Russia impetus has allowed Assad’s army to strengthen its position and to counter-attack, propaganda by the peak of which was the return of Palmyra. The death of Alexander Prokhorenko, caused during the operation in Palmyra the fire itself, has become a culmination of the whole Russian operation. Literally happened: in 2015, the monument of civilization was invaded by the barbarians, in 2016 Palmyra again returned to the bosom of humanity, including the price of the feat of a Russian officer.
To aspire to the creators of the “Islamic state”All this made possible the beginning of peace talks started in Geneva. Yes, the negotiations were actually broken in the first place, because of the unwillingness of Western colleagues to accept the need to negotiate with Assad. Yes, the participation of “moderate militants” in the negotiation process is unpleasant and not entirely logical step on the part of the organizers. But without the Russian operation in Syria, no negotiations would not be in principle. Slow and methodical oppression of Assad’s army “Dzhebhat an-Nusra and ISIS in a very ambiguous role in this overseas “partners” would have been the destruction of Syria as a state.
Against this background, ISIS, had once been a Scarecrow for the whole world, almost fell out of focus. The more you try to predict the future of this quasiorthogonal on the body of the Middle East. The era of explosive dominance of the Islamists and their self-styled “Caliphate” has practically come to an end. Ahead of a long war with non-obvious outcome, new victims and the final reformatting of the Middle East. But again to surprise and paralyze with fear the whole world is Abu Bakr in the near future, it seems, no plans.
On that ISIL has struck a deep creative crisis, “VZGLYAD already wrote earlier. The very existence of ISIS is based on three things: oil, sponsorship and the influx of mercenaries, motivated either financially or ideologically. The “oil blow” on the Russian economy, the effect of which is not tired to rejoice in the West, has played a cruel joke and the supporters of Abu Bakr. Being completely dependent on illegal oil sales, ISIS militants clashed not only with the protracted drop in the price of black gold, but with the suppression of its sales channels the efforts of the Russian troops and the army of Bashar al-Assad. The effect was stunning.
Financial motivation of mercenaries ISIS in recent months drastically reduced. The reason for that, primarily, the inability of the leaders of the Islamists to pay its obligations because of the oil blow-off budget quasi. A lot of evidence. For example, in an interview with France 24 renowned expert on international terrorism Waseem Nasr said that the number of foreign recruits in the ranks of ISIS has significantly decreased. A considerable role was played by the overlap of the channels of terrorist traffic from Turkey after strikes against them (both military and diplomatic) from the side of Assad, Russia and the Western coalition. Similar to the findings adheres to the us General Peter Gersten. According to him, today we are witnessing a critical minimum for the number of new ISIS recruits in recent years. If earlier, the figure had reached 2,000 per month, then today we can speak about a maximum of 200 recruits over the same period. The analysts claim that the guaranteed salary of mercenaries recently declined by about a third.
“Citizens” quasi-state, whose prosperity and well-being periodically “boasted” gilowska propaganda, now sometimes nothing to eat. At the end of April, Reuters reported that the leadership of ISIS is forced to cover the costs of the budget at the expense of fishing (including in the suburbs of Baghdad and the sale of the car. This allows partially to solve the questions of food and supply soldiers.
The ideological motivation of joining the ranks of the “invincible” followers of Abu Bakr are also falling rapidly. Recent loss to ISIS of sufficient weight, including the key media important positions, including Palmyra.
At the moment the main support of the “Caliphate” of Abu Bakr remains radical Islam and sectarian Outlook of the backbone of ISIS. The leadership of the Islamists does not explain his failures on the military front. Sometimes the excuses sound version of the betrayal of their own supporters (and because it was believed that ISIS indestructible), the pressure from the godless West (previously it was considered to be negligible) and about the intrigues of competitors from “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra” (before their competitors do not count). But it is important to understand that even once in the hands of the companions of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will be the last 100 square meters of land, recognition of defeat and the falsity of the chosen path expect them useless. The Islamists will increase the number of executions and defect, but did not attempt to revise their own policies. And if Abu Bakr will go to a review of positions in relation to the outside world and try to establish real contacts with possible allies, he was deprived of his main support, built by himself, the myth of self-sufficiency “Caliphate” and radical Islam.
What made the army of Syria with the help of Russian troops (infographic)the Ranks of ISIS supporters are thinning. Today in the radical Islamic communities there is a significant drop in morale. A year ago in one question and a doubt of the correctness of the action of the IG leadership potential or current supporter of the Islamists received eternal black mark, but now such discussions are normal. In parallel, raising questions about the necessity of choosing between “Dzhebhat an-Nusra and DAISH (ISIL) and expressed doubts about the success of the adventure of recreating the Caliphate.
In fact, passionaries, at the time, fell for the propaganda bait LIH, long gone from Russia. A significant portion eventually ended up in the coveted “Caliphate” and killed there. And those who continue to sympathize with the Islamists from the territory of Russia, can be divided into three categories. First – professional recruiters and provocateurs. They are few, but their goals are clear, and they are the desired goal of power structures. A small percentage of the neophytes and are ready to go to ISIL and make the so-called Hijra. However, their number has been steadily falling, in direct proportion to the reduction in the number of military and propaganda success of ISIS. The remaining part – the largest – looks like a Russian non-systemic opposition, 15 years, promising the imminent collapse of the “regime of Vladimir Putin”. The Internet-the soldiers who give their support to ISIS only in words and never dare to take real action.
Another thing, what about the passionaries – the citizens of Russia, who at the time went to fight shoulder to shoulder with the Islamists – you have to remember, they just need to take into account. Yes, only a small part of them survived, but this part was the most severe military training, and natural selection in terms of bloody conflict. It is not excluded that on the background of the recent failures of the “Caliphate” some of them will think about the need to return to Russia. And some of these while some will decide to quench the thirst for revenge, staging terrorist attacks and military actions in the homeland. Really and what to send them here will be on purpose, so too early to relax.
It is important to consider also that the “Islamic state” was intended to completely change the political landscape in the middle East. Largely succeeded. So it was that in one fell swoop Abu Bakr managed to create a “virtual network” supporters within the civilized world and affect Europe, invaded by refugees from regions under the influence of ISIS in the conflict zone in General. “The butterfly effect” in the case of the offspring of Abu Bakr worked at full capacity, and the world will never be the same.
Yes, it’s possible that “Islamic state” has lost that power which he had in the era of Zenith. But with high probability it can be argued that to finally bury LIH us will be possible not soon. More likely the transformation of the “Caliphate” state trash, trailer Park trash from all over the world, covered with packing “Islamic righteousness”, passed through a filter of Abu Bakr. It is not ruled out such a scenario in which ISIS will turn from object to subject of international relations, in something similar to Somalia. In this sense much depends on whether the world is to create a full-fledged “anti-terrorist coalition” on the model of the anti-Hitler, called for Vladimir Putin, or is it limited to only a situational Union, whose members eventually will not be able to resist the bases in relation to each other, unilateral action for the sake of momentary political interests and the temptation to carry on the big geopolitical game, full of winners which will not.Related posts: