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Monday, October 24, 2016

Visa-free entry to EU for Turkey can turn against Erdogan

Since the end of June, Turkish citizens will have a happy chance to make a short travel to Europe without visas. However, this measure does not apply to those who are going to get a job ,or plans to stay in any EU country for longer than three months. But the Turks and quite small. The people rejoice, Erdogan triumphs, and only the Europeans have the feeling “slightly bewildered”. How to interpret the actions of the European Union? And how can the impact of this decision on Russia? “MK” has helped to understand this well-known politicians.

Vladimir Solovyov, radio and television presenter, writer, journalist:

“It’s clear that this move is part of the deal between Europe and Turkey, which aims to solve complex problems with migrants. About it for a long time and politely tells the entire world community, but even ordinary Europeans understand that such measures can only aggravate the situation.

However, we know that sometimes the most paradoxical decisions in politics are the most loyal. So let them continue. If negotiations are conducted at this level, surely there are some subtleties that are inaccessible to our understanding. We do not see the whole picture. I think, in Russia this “deal of the century” would have no effect. We have been looking at Europe with astonishment. And she stares at us. So we stare at each other for a long time, remaining as it were, on different sides of the barricades. One thing is clear: Erdogan not only calls the tune, but dancing Europe”.

Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy Director of the Institute of history and politics at Moscow state pedagogical University:

“This news is not unexpected, since there is an agreement between the EU and Turkey related to the solution of the refugee problem. Negotiations began back in 2015, and now the process continues. In accordance with the stated positions initially this question had to be resolved positively for Turkish citizens. Personally, I am skeptical about this decision, because, honestly, I don’t believe that the agreement will be fully implemented – primarily on the part of the Turkish Republic… the Problem of refugees has become a powerful resource in the hands of the Turkish government. Practically we are talking about the fact that Turkey throughout the period of the migration crisis skillfully blackmailing Europe with refugees, and the clear inability of the EU on their own to solve this problem.

It is therefore evident that we must wait for further steps by Turkey. Will be louder and sound requirements to the European Union for the funding of the Turkish measures against refugees. The EU will be presented and the requirements related to internal policies of Turkey and the reaction to it by European media, which is often very critical.

In this regard, I think that an agreement between Turkey and the EU, perhaps in the future will undergo significant changes. It may come to a crisis, because Turkey will put forward new requirements. Secondly, it is clear that for EU citizens the visa-free regime is a challenge, due to the fact that the EU for tens of years have a negative attitude to possible integration in its membership of the Turkish Republic.

You can expect an increase of the positions of eurosceptics. In other words, this decision can have a Domino to have a number of negative consequences. Indirectly, this may influence, for example, at the exit of Britain from the EU.

The strengthening of Turkey’s positions in the dialogue with the European Union could lead to the fact that Turkey will start to use their increased authority in the middle East in the Syrian crisis. Now Turkey is the main country, which hinders the process of peaceful settlement in Syria, and the EU’s position on this issue is uncertain.

– Do not you think that this agreement contains a veiled threat for the European Union?

– Turkey today is not entirely safe country. We know that a large part of those migrants who were on the territory of Europe, had received the fake Syrian passports in Turkey. Turkish smugglers are the main link in the transit of refugees to the territory of Europe. And the Turkish government either cannot or does not want to monitor and prevent such actions. Given the fact that Turkey’s border is easily permeable by the countries of the Middle East, different sectors of Turkish society have links with Islamic militants. All this creates a rather wide possibility for destabilization of the situation in Europe – times of penetration in Europe of new groups of Islamic terrorists – two, to strengthen the position of European States uncontrolled illegal population groups – three, for the growth of the illegal groups to Europe – four. Turkey in fact can be a great corridor through which terrorist groups can pour a mighty flood to Europe.

Erdogan is a strong politician, but unpredictable and prone to adventure. With the aim of on the one hand, in fact the revival of the Ottoman Empire and on the other hand strengthen the position of Islamism in Turkey, vpitaetsya to play in different fields. From time to time he had managed to do all this quite skillfully, but obviously a bet on strength, active participation in military conflicts in combination with dictatorship and brutal suppression of any opposition activities inside the country sooner or later will lead to the fact that Erdogan will no longer be a strong politician.

It is increasingly likely that Turkey under Erdogan will overtake the strongest economic crisis, which will have to extricate himself with great difficulty. The more Erdogan will push the interests of different countries, the more he will blackmail Europe, the greater the likelihood that he will fall into a stalemate, and will cause negative reactions from key world players.

I can give the example of relations with Russia. By the way, and relations with the U.S. Turkey is currently at an impasse”.

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