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Monday, March 19, 2018

Hypnosis as the main anti-crisis resource

The abyss that has no bottom, is about the current state of the Russian economy. Today, almost three quarters of Russian citizens have no savings. A statement of reality — to save the economy has not yet begun.

photo: Alex geldings

The anti-crisis plan, on paper, promised to approve in may. In other words, until may, the country was developing outside the budget, as it as the current mechanism. And yet, according to Siluanov, the money just is not isolated. According to the chamber, it is possible to speak about deficiency of the recipients of about 40 percent from the approved budget costs.

Turnaround plan starts to work, experts say, when will be ready new adjustments on the budget. And while many budget options are questionable. There is no clarity with the deficit and sources of financing, such as the average annual price of oil. So today, these words have been uttered already in the month of April, to talk about understanding of anti-crisis plan in full prematurely.

What’s going on? The country has a heavy duty oil, and the government imposes an increase in excise duties on petrol and diesel as additional cash flow to the budget. And this against the background of continuously increasing prices of almost all types of consumer products.

The country came to the red line. The main problem of society today, according to research, is the massive impoverishment of the population and the gradual reducing to nothing of the existence of the middle class. There are only two poles: immensely rich and living in constant need. And all this against the background of the lawlessness which is created in system utilities. Retired with a pension of 15-20 thousand, paying all expenses on housing, which laid out 9 thousand, do not know how to continue to exist.

Everything is interrelated: the decline in the growth rate of the economy, impoverishment of the population and another unexpected effect in 2015 in the country increased mortality of Russians. This is not to say alarming — is the sentence the system of governance.

Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, you are a supporter of the centralization of power. Today we have the overwhelming effect of this centralization — the transfer of the country in the hand control. I understand that this is a forced measure, but it is a consequence of a failure rate in the control system when the government fails to meet its obligations in almost all areas of the internal life of the country.

The government is totally occupied with the execution of the decrees of the President. The last time they appear with increasing frequency. And, in recognition of members of the government, they do not have time to develop their own policies, as well as the management system itself. That’s one of the reasons for the loss of independence and the importance of the government.

A government devoid of its own politics, will always be focused on finding the perpetrators of the obvious failures, as does not consider himself.

Why is this happening? On the one hand, this is a consequence of the loss of skills in this activity. On the other hand is not wanting to change anything, at least until the elections, but focusing its efforts on the retention of power in the form in which it exists now. The President doesn’t want to be the initiator of the change of government, because the stability of the government is viewed through the prism of his loyalty to the President.

Let’s say for a moment that the election results will prevail the idea of forming a government along party lines, when the government will be presented to the party according to their importance in the Parliament. Politically, such a reorganization of the Executive power is justified because it stems from the international experience of democratic States. But Russia will never be a parliamentary Republic, it has been, and will remain presidential, in which the authoritarian beginning in governing the country will be decisive. In other words, the preservation of the autocracy is the future of the country. And if so, the President was sentenced to spend front the reorganization of the government. And here is the main question — what resources will the reorganization occur? Once it is necessary to withdraw the country from the area of manual control.

Now the economic policy of the government is not measures to overcome the crisis, and steps to survival in crisis. And survival, and overcoming are different options. Survival actions, as they say, so as not to drop the hoof, and overcoming — steps, aimed at overcoming the crisis and paving the way to economic growth.

Who to believe?

The Russian government knows how to deal with the crisis, and it could save the country. Now thinks, according to public opinion polls (conducted by VTSIOM), every second Russian. However, just a month ago this same sociological center reported that two-thirds of Russian citizens advocate for a fundamentally new economic policy, because the current course has led the country to a standstill. Strange that this could happen to a month so changed the opinion of citizens. In fact, anything encouraging the government didn’t commit. Happened freezing the budget and raising the excise tax on gasoline. The actions clearly are far from encouraging.

The government’s hypnosis consistently held Ulyukaev — Minister of economic development, Siluanov — Minister of Finance, the head of the Central Nabiullina, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and, no doubt, Prime Minister Medvedev, fails. Characteristically, the government have not found common language with the economic community, which sees not acceptable to the authorities of the recipes out of the crisis and condemns the country to a heavy five years. But it’s the community that adjudicates the government and its insolvency, consists of institutions serving liberal model of economic development of the country, which was created in the early 1990s, Gaidar’s team of young reformers led by Yegor Gaidar and the “Falcon of privatization” Anatoly Chubais. And now in every scenario proposed by the members of this economic community, there is certainly almost as a major component of the next privatization.

It turns out, all is not sold. But it is surprising that opponents of the government development model are not the Communists, not hard-nosed conservatives, and almost theoreticians and creators of the liberal course of development of the country the name of Yegor Gaidar.

So, Mr President, you, as a faithful follower of the Gaidar development model of the country, like its successors in the face of neoliberal understand: who is who? Who for whom? I note that just recently, scientists and economists from the academic world presented to the RAS Presidium its plan for economic development of the country, which resulted from a two-month debate.

Unlike anti-crisis plan of the government, the scientists propose the concept of development, promising a GDP growth of 5 percent in the next two years. The key points of the plan — fix the low rate of the ruble, freeze it at the level of 75 rubles to the dollar, correct monetary policy and channelling investment through the major state-owned companies.

Not a day goes by, as the society falls a new batch of predictions. But first fatal warning. In 2016 will be exhausted past the well of hope Reserve Fund. What does it mean? And who is to blame? Well, of course, blame the unstable oil prices and sanctions. And the government here at anything, it is not the first year in the role of sufferers.

Experts, acting as master hypnotists in the country, offered three selections: basic, pessimistic and optimistic. But, alas, in the performance of any of them, 2016 will end the economic downturn. GDP will shrink: under the baseline forecast by 1.9 percent, according to optimistic — by 0.7 percent, according to the pessimistic — 2.5 percent.

Moreover, under all dynamics of oil prices, the budget deficit in 2016 will not be able to meet the designated President of the 3 percent of GDP. The baseline forecast the deficit will reach 4.6 percent of GDP, optimistic — 3.9%, pessimistic — 5.6 percent.

And even with a new round of spending cuts announced by the government in January, Russia will hardly be able to perform inherent in the 2016 budget target deficit of 3 percent of GDP. And despite the fact that the Reserve Fund will be exhausted at the end of this year.

What is the conclusion? The conclusion is depressing. Due to the lack of any blagopriatnoe with oil prices, as well as the helplessness of anti-crisis actions undertaken by the government, below the poverty line this year will be 14.7% of the population, and in 2017 — is already 15.2 percent, accounting for 22.3 million people.

In this forecast the insanity of the most rough position of Advisor to the President, economist, academician Sergei Glazyev. If it was not the policy of the Central Bank, he wrote on his page on Twitter, the Russian economy could grow 6-8 percent per year.

The new reality, artificially created by the management of Bank of Russia, is stagflation, stopping economic growth, said Glazyev. Created by the Central Bank in a new reality survive only speculators. A production die. This is the path to economic disaster.

The eye is the figure of the rebellious, it is. But he was one of the originators of the Gaidar reforms, as part of the government, and then called mladoreformatorskaya course, gouging the state from economic management, and erroneous on his own initiative left the government.

Power avoids a highly professional, healthy and balanced view of the development of the country. Almost instant response to the position of Glazyev expressed in the statement by the press Secretary of President Dmitry Peskov, only added fuel to the fire. “This statement is a personal point of view, Glazyev and in no way reflects the position of the presidential Administration of the Russian Federation”. Well, the presidential administration has distanced themselves.

However, one question remains unanswered. The point of view of the President’s administration and the point of view of the President is one and the same point of view, or?! Because the adviser to the President on the key issue of the development of the country — the economy — is also a member of the presidential administration, and his view of the development of the Russian economy and the inadequacy of the policy of the government with its inability to solve problems, you begin to understand the highly significant not only professionals but also ordinary citizens who found themselves at the counter of the store in front of constantly changing price tags on products or reaching out

mailbox so-called letters of happiness — a receipt for payment of the apartments, electricity, repair, etc. They are extremely interested in the answer to the question: “Who is to blame?”.

Management of the absurd non-stop. The audit chamber has summed up the results of decades of attempts to create the country’s special economic development zones, which, by design, were to become the engine of faster growth in the country, as in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and several other countries. Thirty-three special zones in Russia in fact had no impact on the development of the economy. And how I wrote “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”: “in order to discern the contribution of special economic zones in the GDP, will need to take a microscope”.

Special economic zones (SEZ) were established in the country by the decree of the President from July 2005. During this time of Federal budget they had allocated 122 million rubles, and another 64 million rubles allocated by the regions, the creation of infrastructure left 334 million, However, instead of the planned 758 objects put into operation only 526.

The revenue of residents of the SEZ amounted to only 0.2 per cent of the gross regional product of the subjects of the Russian Federation where they are based.

Will not deal with the particulars, I will refer to the findings of the auditor of audit chamber Sergey Agapov, who was involved in the validation: “the Process of creating and managing a SEZ is characterized by formality, irresponsibility and impunity, the lack of Executive discipline and the demand for decisions and their consequences. The real economic effect of special economic zones is practically not achieved. ACA proposes to urgently make an inventory of special tax zones, to evaluate and eliminate ineffective”. So. On the Epiphany of power, it took only ten years. And you say we have no future.

Mr President, you continue to repeat at every meeting of the government dedicated to the correction of the budget crisis that the social sphere is sacred, it is not subject to reduction. And at the same time reduced almost the social budget items related to medicine and education. The power of time to realize that medicine and education, as the MIC is in the budget, ensuring the country’s security. Failure to understand this obvious ignorance of the government.

We’re destroying our education and our medicine. It is the state pushes free medicine and free education, which negates the main principle of development: the state needs to heal, to teach and to protect the citizens of the country. That is why public education and public medicine is accountable to the state. And as soon as they become components of the market, they do not bear any responsibility before the authorities, therefore, today at the metro station you can buy a degree in any profession. About paid medicine I’m not saying. It in front of anyone responsible for anything. It’s all from the same Opera. What to expect? And how to live? And if hope dies last, it would be good to know the address of this hope, where she is or how she looks.

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