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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Kudrin Putin prepares to premiere

Alexei Kudrin is now officially engaged in economic development of the country after 2018. Putin kept his word and appointed former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Deputy Chairman of the Economic Council under the President. Perhaps in this way, we have made it clear who will be the next head of the Russian government.

photo: Mikhail Kovalev

Alexei Kudrin.

While Alexei Kudrin will deal with the reformed, not in the government occupying any official posts. In the “live” premiere of Dmitry Medvedev it would be impossible. Everybody remembers the story of the dismissal of Kudrin from the post of Deputy Chairman of the government in the fall of 2011.

However, in recognition of Vladimir Putin since then the situation has changed and Alexei Kudrin is ready to contribute to the solution of the tasks facing the country”.

Of course the question arises, what actually has changed? But what has changed is that the President apparently decided that the resource development with the current government coming to an end and after elections in 2018 should wait for a major upgrade.

The President is not a supporter of sudden movements, well aware that any conversion is necessary thoroughly to cook, and not only in personnel but also in terms of content.

The fact that Kudrin will be engaged in the economic development programs being elected Chairman of the Board of the Foundation “Center for strategic research (CSR) is highly symbolic. The centre at different times managed to steer German Gref, Elvira Nabiullina, Dmitry Kozak is not the last people on the current political scene.

What can offer the team Kudrin? He said a lot of things for this reason.

Literally at the end of last year, speaking about the reforms, he considered the possible economic transformation only if political. Being the head of Committee of civil initiatives, a former senior official, unlike the current officials have always predicted more negative scenario of economic development. “For several years we are going backwards in standard of living. – said Kudrin. – And that social policy that today in our country, there is not enough time, despite the high cost, to meet these challenges. That is, it turned out, it is not adapted to such acute social crisis situations.”

As head of CSR Kudrin believes that Russia can still return to sustained growth without painful reforms. “The challenge, if GDP grew an average 4% per year over the next 20 years, it would be the highest achievement. In some years this figure may reach 5-7%, and in some 1,5-2%”, — Kudrin now says.

However, it is unclear how to do it. Even in much more fat years the authorities failed to carry out many reforms, either collapsing them at all, or changing conditions as the game progresses, adapting to the conjuncture of economic realities. In any case, the results obtained were not those expected.

So it was with the reform of public administration, the purpose of which was the reduction of departments and officials. But in fact they do not have not diminished.

12 years after the start of the pension reform, the government restarts it. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance provides for raising the retirement age for men and women to 65 years, the total abolition of pensions to working Russians (payment suspended), a waiver of the right to early retirement, from the cumulative part of the pension and its transfer to the voluntary format.

Alexei Kudrin most of these ideas supports and, certainly, much of the aforementioned will be included in its programme a separate unit.

While the domestic economy is living without significant changes. According to the Ministry, in the first quarter of 2016, the GDP decline amounted to 1.4%, industrial production declined a little less, but this figure has been achieved, mainly due to raw material industries where there is a small increase in exports. The country continues to decline in the consumer market, investment activity. Real incomes dropped by more than 4 %, real wages by almost 10%.

In this story the question remains, what will happen to the lawyer Dmitry Medvedev after 2018? Globally, nothing wrong with that. After all, he is still the “Secretary General” of the “United Russia” and, certainly, hopes that his party in the upcoming elections to the state Duma will gain a parliamentary majority or close to it. Going there for a new job, instead of another retired United Russia deputies assigned to some Lieutenant-Governor, even at the worst factional hands, possible alliances, for example, the liberal democratic party, will provide Medvedev the post of Chairman of the state Duma – the third or fourth person in the state.

Well, the role of the first person, as you know, no longer vacant.

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