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Saturday, January 20, 2018

Trump, unlike Clinton, got rid of competitors

In the primaries in new York won already entrenched leaders from the Republican and Democratic parties – Donald trump and Hillary Clinton. But if a billionaire got almost all the delegates, Clinton is not too far removed from Bernie Sanders, as he shares home state almost in half. Real competition Trump already be impossible, but Clinton will have to fight.

In the state of new York passed the primaries of the Republican and Democratic parties of the USA. Main contenders for President is Donald trump and Hillary Clinton won the vote among supporters of their parties, receiving about 60% of the vote, according to NBC.

“Clinton wanted to shift the weight of his political agitation against the Republican front-runners – trump and Cruz, but she has constantly throwing efforts to Sanders”

According to the latest exit polls, the candidate from the Republican party, Donald trump scored 61% of the vote, his rivals John Kasich and Ted Cruz is 25.2% and 14.7%, respectively. The candidate from Democratic party Hillary Clinton has secured 58% of the vote, while her opponent Bernie Sanders received 42.5% of the votes.

The battle for delegates

However, the procedure for the nomination of candidates in US presidents is difficult. The results of the voting have to focus not on the percent, and the number of votes received by delegates. So, in new York voters-Democrats fought for the votes of 247 delegates, and Republicans – for the support of 95 delegates.

Trump on voting results received 89 votes delegates, three went to John Kasich, Cruz still scored zero votes. The counting is not completed, it is unknown who will get the votes of three delegates. Probably them and get Cruz. Democrats fought for the votes of delegates 247, 135 of which currently depart Clinton, and 104 – Sanders, showing a small gap between them.

Trump after winning in new York is gaining 845 votes delegates, Cruz – 559, which deprives him of the opportunity to gain a majority in 1237 votes in the remaining States. According to estimates CNN, the advantage of trump broader 847 553 candidates against Cruz.

Final processing of ballots is not yet complete, but major American media, including CNN, NBC, Fox News, the Associated Press Agency, has awarded a landslide victory to construction magnate. It is noteworthy that, according to the newspaper The Washington Post, Donald trump was victorious in almost every County of the state, while Clinton won the most only in the state capital and several districts on the West. Influential Metropolitan newspaper called the victory trump’s “easy”.

The Americans, in principle, expected as the outcome of the vote. The fact that the state of new York and the town considered the birthplace of the businessman engaged in real estate and construction. Experts are sure: the new York rich people are skeptical to the ideas of trump, but the proximity of their operations and overdue reform within the country attract them. With all his populism trump clearly looks more than capable of radical transformation than his two competitor.

In the Democratic party also, we have a strong leader, though not as explicit. Ex-Senator from the state of new York and ex-Secretary of state Hillary Clinton sidesteps his opponent for a party of Bernie Sanders, collected in 1869 total votes delegates versus votes 1174 Sanders. It figures all the previous primaries and Caucuses. The Democratic party the necessary number of delegates-twice as many delegates from the Republican party. To obtain the nomination from the Democratic party have to gain the support of delegates 2383.

Based on the results of the primaries of the Republican party in new York, Donald trump was the only candidate who can claim an automatic nomination for the presidency from his party. After a confident victory trump said that his rival Ted Cruz “is almost destroyed from a mathematical point of view, and we will get more delegates than anyone had predicted in my wildest dreams”.

It is important to note that Cruz lost the opportunity to overtake trump on votes, but still retains a theoretical chance of not allow him to recruit the necessary number of delegates for an automatic nomination for President. For this cruise need a plot or a split within the Republican party. “I think we’ll go to the Congress as the winners, but no one will take our elections, as they used to do in the party,” said trump.

The Agency TASS quoted the American political scientist from the University of Tennessee Andrey Korobkov, who called the results of the primaries in new York a crushing victory for Donald trump. “These results make you think the party elite, even those who hate trump. In the case of Clinton, the situation is such that victory for her lack. She had to win by a large margin to demonstrate the superiority of her home state,” he said. According to him, the first results of the primaries showed that Clinton “is not a geeky enthusiastic candidate.”

Trump out of the competition

“This is a very important victory for trump, said in an interview with the newspaper VIEW chief researcher, Institute of USA and Canada Vladimir Vasiliev. – First of all, this victory is convincing. Voters a bit, but to get from 95 votes 89 is confident. He took almost all the votes of new York”.

In the US it is extremely important to have a confident support of just the home state, which is the trump for new York, reminiscent of Vasiliev. “In America, the candidate often assess how he behaves in his native state. In particular, Rubio’s out of the race because he lost in Florida (Marco Rubio represents the state in the Senate – approx. OPINION)”, – said the source.

Now the Republicans are really no rival Trump. “Cruz will no longer be able to dial 1237 votes in any case. Following keysik has long been “bounced,” – says Vasilyev. So, trump was the only candidate who can garner the necessary votes”. Vasiliev notes that in fact in the presidential race was a bit of a break, not counting the vote in Wisconsin, where the victory went to the cruise. “And it was important to understand, played out the trump campaign during this time or not. But it did not fizzle out, but new York gives a new impulse”.

The next important vote will take place in a week and will cover five States – Maryland, Delaware, Rhode island, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. “In Maryland, Connecticut and Pennsylvania trump leads in the polls – said the expert. – And it is possible that in combination with the previous push through the week the fate of primary elections in the Republican party will be decided. And trump will be able to create a direct route to Congress”.

Among the Republicans is only one hope – that Cruz and Kasich will be able to take away from trump’s the necessary votes. “It’s just a “dog” that make the dial to Congress 1237 votes. But psychologically the new York election showed that Kasich and Cruz losing. Stop trump they can’t, and vote for them useless. Continue to throw their vote is like a vote against trump,” – says Vasilyev. However, the Republican party can now “give up” and decide to stop putting spokes in the wheels of the campaign billionaire, the interlocutor assumes.

Important financial factor that showed the current primaries. “It wasn’t the primary election in new York – it was a primary election on wall street. Thus, financial sponsors will not give more neither Kasich nor Cruz large investments in their campaign. To Trump this applies to a lesser extent, he is leading a campaign mostly at his own expense,” he recalled. To beat trump, now need a big financial investment, but these two candidates hardly can count. “The financial component expressed in new York: the big money definitely trump support,” said Vasiliev.

“This is not a coronation – it’s a struggle”

The victory of Hillary Clinton was confident enough, says analyst-American studies Dmitry Drobnicki. However, it was not devastating, although it was expected, he said in an interview with the newspaper LOOK. New York is actually the home state for her, as for trump, he recalled – she became a Senator from this state.

With regard to competitive struggle in the party, after several in a row won by Bernie Sanders in the primaries and Caucuses, victory in new York – so far, a consolation prize for Hillary, says Drobnicki. “The gap that was between her and Sanders for the last several months has significantly diminished,” he recalled.

The team of Sanders, like his other supporters, was well aware that to break a fight course in new York is one of those “mission impossible”, he said. Prospects Sanders is still very vague, he said.

However, the results of Sanders still quite significant in the circumstances. “For Hillary, the party fully cleared a path to the nomination, turning it into a kind of coronation. But nevertheless it became clear that the mood of voters is different from the mood of the party elite. This is true of the Republican party,” said Drobnicki.

“Now she is confronted by a man who still can’t win the primaries in the USA. He professes too radical leftist ideas. Its mission is not to win the nomination from the Democratic party, and to lay some foundations for the future”, – the expert believes.

The analyst reminded that, under the current system, there are 712 of delegates-Democrats, who are not tied to any state and are appointed just from the circle of “respected members of the party.” Without their votes, the gap between Clinton and Sanders is quite small. “And Sanders is confident that he will be able at the final conference to persuade them to your side. Gap Clinton will be significant only if one of these approximately 690 712 will support her, as they had previously said (in March, told about 500 delegates are ready to support Clinton – approx. OPINION)”. But the intrigue remains. “Delegates are not required to maintain the position until the party conference in July. And there’s a certain air to the game,” he said.

The situation in the Democratic party shows some weakness Clinton. “When all the field cleared for her, and it was believed that Sanders’s podygryshe, he nevertheless gives her the fight. Unequal, but no one could have imagined. Clinton promoted 2014 as the future President of the United States. Suddenly there is a 74-year-old socialist from Vermont – one of the smallest States in the U.S., and supported. And he will continue to fight until the very end, and for Hillary it is a strong irritant. She would love to move the weight of his political agitation, media, sponsors against Republican front-runners – trump and Cruz. But she has constantly throwing efforts to Sanders. So it’s not a coronation – it’s still a struggle,” – said the expert.

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