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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Impeachment the President of Brazil is threatened by anarchy

Brazilian passion escalated after the lower house of the Parliament supported the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The President called the entire process a fraud, and called on the mind of Brazilians. The final verdict remains with the Senate. The split in society meanwhile is getting worse. Experts warn: an early exit Rousseff could face the country of anarchy.

The lower house of the Brazilian Parliament voted for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The initiative was supported by 367 deputies out of 513, even more than the necessary minimum to make the vote took place.

“In the worst-case scenario the country could be plunged into anarchy”

The discussion in the chamber of deputies took place rapidly. While each member went to the microphone and announced his decision to vote “for” or “against”, around the microphone was a huge crowd of deputies who shouted, clapped or booed the opponents, some even tried to sing the song. After receiving the coveted votes for the impeachment supporters leaving Rousseff and completely arranged for the celebration: they jumped, waved placards with the inscription “Yes!” (impeachment) and sang songs. The fun lasted several minutes, after which the voting continued.

“The biggest fraud in history”

On the eve of voting Dilma Rousseff has recorded a video message to the nation, where he said: “the Inquiry of impeachment against me – the greatest legal and political fraud in the history of our country. Otherwise this document wouldn’t have had it even before the first vote. Neither Brazil nor democracy does not deserve such a farce. I ask all Brazilians: don’t be fooled” – she said. Rousseff warned that her political opponents in case of coming to power are going to cut social programs and pass the national natural resources to foreign companies. “The word “coup” is always written on the forehead of traitors of democracy,” the President said.

The final decision, however, will take the Upper chamber – the Senate. Within 10 days there should be created a special Commission, and then the senators will have to vote on the issue of impeachment. Suspension of the President in 180 days requires the affirmative vote of at least 41 senators, and for the final impeachment will need to hold a separate meeting of the Senate chaired by the head of the Supreme court and get at least 54 votes. In this case, the duties of the head of state until elections 2018 will fulfill Vice-President Michel Temer.

The head of administration of the President of Brazil, Jacques Wagner is confident that the Senate will vote against impeachment of the head of the country, Reuters reports. However, not all supporters of the President share his confidence. A group of lawmakers from the ruling Brazilian workers Party (PT) advocated the holding of presidential elections if the Senate will begin consideration of impeachment against Dilma Rousseff, told TASS. One of the authors of the initiative, the Deputy from the PT Vicente Candida, explained that it is necessary to amend the Constitution. “Now the idea is to bring down the President, using low popularity, to plant in its place the Vice-President, who is equally low and is not the legitimate head of state. Much fairer would be to hold direct elections”, – he said. According to the newspaper Globo, a few closest advisers of the President also supported the initiative on early elections.

“The importance of relations with Brazil is not subject to doubt”

We will remind, the Brazilian opposition is trying to achieve resignation of President and run against her investigation on suspicion of involvement in alleged tax violations and the use of state funds to Finance his re-election. The country is also unfolding political scandals related to corruption. To vote for the impeachment agreed and Rousseff supporters of Progressive party of Brazil. According to the newspaper VIEW, in the political struggle in this largest Latin American country, which is the seventh economy in the world, visible and external interests: the U.S. is interested in the failure of Brazil on orientation on China and Russia.

Earlier, Deputy foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow is closely following what is happening in Brazil and expects that all decisions on the possible impeachment of the President of this country will be taken in the framework of the Constitution. “The importance of relations with Brazil for us there can be no doubt, it is the largest of our partners, bilateral relations have been developing for many years quite rapidly in all areas, and we believe that this is not a cyclical course, he’s on our side, of course, will be continued,” Ryabkov stressed. He also expressed hope for continued cooperation with Brazil within the BRICS and the fact that internal processes in Brazil will relate only to the situation in the country, but does not affect its external course.

Meanwhile in Brazil are continuing protests against the impeachment. March 14 to seek the resignation of the President there were about 3 million people. The next day the demonstrations continued in 74 cities of the country, where about half a million people demanded the suppression of the stagnation of the economy, poverty, price rise and corruption. The cause of the troubles they called Dilma Rousseff. Many of the protesters, Reuters noted, belonged to the wealthy classes, traditionally opposed to the ruling workers ‘ Party.

Soon took to the streets and supporters of the President. When the parliamentary Commission of Brazil last week formally called for the impeachment of Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian capital was filled with protesters with the slogan “No to the coup!”. The rally was attended by former leader of the South American Republic Luis inácio Lula da Silva, as well as renowned Brazilian artists and intellectuals. Organizers estimated the number of demonstrators ranged from 35 thousand to 50 thousand people. The protests on either side have continued, and the main task of law enforcement – not to let the two trends to face. The organizers explain that a rally in support of the head of state is usually held in the morning, while on the second scheduled a rally demanding the resignation of Rousseff.

“The political process and substitution of arguments”

In the case of impeachment “refers to the political process… the legal basis for the removal of the President is very weak,” said Brazilian political scientist, head of research center “Audible” (state of Rio Grande do Sul) Fabian, Mielniczuk, which quoted TASS. According to him, “Rousseff lost support of the majority in Congress that prevents her to run the country”. “That’s why, as well as for a number of reasons related to the lack of political coordination between the President and her allies, now there is such situation”, – said the analyst.

The process of impeachment against Rousseff is accompanied by substitution of arguments added Mielniczuk: “Investigation of theft (state oil) company Petrobras, did not touch the President and not mentioned in the request for impeachment. There we are talking about the financial balances of Executive power and that the government had allegedly withheld some of the data on the state of public accounts. Not about corruption, – said the expert. But we see how to create a political climate conducive to impeachment, including with the participation of critical towards the government press. And to justify the dismissal of the head of state, given all possible arguments, including a corruption scandal. And people don’t pay any attention to it,” said Mielniczuk. In his opinion, it is a weakness of the Brazilian democratic system: “Discusses the process of impeachment on the basis of one argument and the vote in its favor due to very different,” he explained.

One of the few remaining government alternatives to Mielniczuk calls organizing street protests against the removal of Rousseff from office. “The government, which lacks political support, forced to push social movements to ensure that they protect the existing Executive power and put pressure on parliamentarians,” he said.

However, given that the opponents of the government have been very actively involved in the demonstrations, “in recent years, in Brazil one can observe a tendency to greater schism of the population.”

“The symbol of this phenomenon was the construction of the barrier in front of the national Parliament to separate supporters and opponents of impeachment. Fortunately, to date there have been no serious conflict, but the society is polarized. This is a big problem now”, – said the analyst.

“There is a threat to political stability”

The Deputy Director of Institute of Latin America Boris Martynov considers what to speak about the real threat of impeachment is premature. “Have a vote in the Senate. As said the leader of the Rousseff administration, in the Senate, it is likely that the vote will be in favor of impeachment,” he recalled.

However, all will become clear after the counting of votes, and there may be any options, said Martynov. “This thing is not very grateful. Estimates, usually done with a pitchfork on water. People can change not only their views but also party affiliation. In Brazil it happens all the time,” he says.

The expert believes that the initiation of impeachment was necessary to the ruling elite of Brazil to show its strength. “Most likely, at the next election with the “baggage” with which the party of Rousseff came to the current day, it won’t work. Will need to take a serious breather, to refresh the ranks program,” – said the source.

What is happening now is not very favorable circumstance for today’s Brazil, said Martynov. “Suppose the President will be suspended for 180 days, as required by the Constitution. The power will pass into the hands of Vice-President Michel Temer, who is one of the initiators of the process. But we should not forget that against him, and against the chairmen of both chambers of the National Congress put forward similar allegations of corruption. That is, at the very worst case scenario the country could be plunged into anarchy,” he says.

Thus, the normal alternative to Dilma Rousseff is currently not observed. “The best option would be to let her stay until 2018 and to hold General elections, in accordance with the Constitution. This is confirmed by external observers, and the leadership of CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean countries – approx. OPINION). Moreover, in 2016 Brazil will be hosting the Olympic games. Carry them on the back of the political turmoil it would be wrong,” he explains.

The country is really a lot of opponents Dilma Rousseff and her supporters. And those and others regularly hold meetings, promotions, actively defending his position, which is traditional for Brazil. “Society is divided approximately in half. There is a threat to political stability”, – says Martynov.

What will happen after Rousseff?

In the current environment, stronger ideas of those who, as he says, nostalgic for the strong hand. “In Brazil such persons a lot. Do not forget, when the jerks in the economic development of Brazil. The first stage of industrialization began in 30-40-ies, during the “new state” dictatorship of Getulio Vargas. The second pull was attached to the Brazilian military regimes that ruled the country from 1964 to 1985. Nostalgic tone, although at the present scenario, both domestic and international, it is difficult to imagine an active role of the military. But politics is often unpredictable. However, I would not want to stage a stable democratic development of Brazil, which began in 1985, was aborted,” warns the expert.

Even if Rousseff and leave his post, it is unlikely to affect relations with major international players such as Russia and the United States. “Brazil always had a good relationship. We are partners in the BRICS, the “Big twenty”, – said Martynov. And speculation that will come more than a right-wing government that will bow to US, not to be taken seriously, he said. “Those days are gone, it is history. Brazil is now positioning itself as a sovereign and independent state. Whatever government has, more right or more left, it will not produce any effect. Brazil, like other countries, including Russia, committed to equal and mutually beneficial relations with the United States. And what’s wrong with that? Need to stop looking at Latin America as the backyard of the United States. Now these countries are much more independent, much more independent than EU States”.

The adjustment of the economic course is likely to be, but any change to the relationship is not envisaged. “Besides, Russia now acts as an important promoter of those principles professed in Latin America: a multi-polar world, sovereign equality, leveling the imbalances in international economic cooperation, UN reform,” he explains.

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