The Ministry of economic development revised the forecast for 2016-2018, and amounted to 2019 As it became known to the media, in this forecast the Agency determines the dollar by 2020, 56.7 of the ruble, despite the fact that oil prices will remain in the range of $40-50/bbl.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
About the new forecast the Ministry of economic development said Thursday the newspaper “Vedomosti”. True then, the Agency RIA “Novosti” the words of the head of the MAYOR Alexei Ulyukayev, who said that no forecasts were not published, but merely sent to the different departments “scenario conditions of the forecast” to determine the responses of the ministries and adjust subsequent forecasts.
Apparently the idea is that the journal managed to find some draft forecast, which will become the basis for the budget and will be in April submitted to the government. But the Cabinet has yet to return to practice three years of planning. Earlier it was decided to plan only one year, due to the unstable situation on the oil market.
The Ministry of economic development estimates that up to 2018, inclusive, the economy will fall by half a percent, but as early as 2019 growth to accelerate to 2.5%. This is despite the fact that oil prices will remain at the same level of 40-50 dollars per barrel.
And if at the beginning of the year, the Agency believed that in 2016 the current recession will reach 0.8%, now the forecast improved to 0.3%. In addition, officials of the Ministry saw and improvement on real wages, which will encourage consumer demand and forcing companies to purchase products and make their stock. This will be the source of some economic growth in the second half of the year.
The Agency also predicts that if oil prices in 2017 will be kept at the level of 45 dollars per barrel, the Russian economy will come out of recession, stopped falling wages, will start once again investing in the industry.
In subsequent years, oil is expected to grow to 50 dollars per barrel, which will reduce by the beginning of 2020 inflation to 5% and capital outflow to $ 20 billion. All this should lead to the strengthening of the ruble to the fantastic figures of today – 56.7%.
One hopes that if “the scenario conditions of the forecast” has turned into a real forecast, and, finally, to true.Related posts: