What happened this week throwing in media news on a possible exchange of Nadezhda Savchenko to Viktor bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko was put on the agenda some questions. Tellingly, this leak happened right after the meeting, the head of U.S. state Department John Kerry with the Russian leader on the eve of the visit to Washington of Petro Poroshenko. The timing could not be more successful. And although a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Moscow was quick to disavow this information — say, about such an exchange cannot be and speeches, — the potential of new concessions and exchanges between Moscow and Washington in Ukraine and Syria hung in the air a big question mark.
On the one hand, the issue of Savchenko cannot be part of the Minsk talks, because she is convicted of the murder of Russian citizens and therefore will serve his sentence in a Russian prison. On the other hand, in Kiev now comes the trial of two Russian citizens with documents of officers of the GRU Alexander Alexandrov and Eugene Erofeev, who is credited with participation in the events in the Donbass. Of course, Moscow must do everything for the sake of a prompt return of its citizens home. That question is, someone on whom to change, remains unanswered. It seems logical that the exchange must be submitted to the people, commensurate with the resonance of the stories. So, for example, Alexandrov and Erofeeva would be to change the failed demolition of the Crimea Oleg Sentsov and Alexander Kolchenko, who have already received their sentences for the attempted terrorist attack on the Peninsula. Who, then Savchenko to change, if change at all? 22 that it has received on a court sentence, should be a good warning of its potential followers from the ranks of the Ukrainian army, which, before the next time to press the trigger, I think about the inevitability of punishment.
The visit of Kerry to Moscow, held last week, except talk about “the red suitcase” and the guitar the Secretary of state, made little news. Meanwhile, according to available information, the Secretary of state flew in order to once again volunteered to participate in the settlement of the situation in the Donbass in the framework of the Normandy format. For those who have forgotten, let me remind you — this format includes Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine. Last held in early March in Paris a meeting of foreign Ministers “channel four” have failed because of the position of Kiev, not wanting to take up the implementation of the Minsk agreements. In fact, after the abolition of the unilateral elections in people’s republics of Donbass Kiev was to agree and adopt constitutional reform, to reactivate the law on special status of Donbass and to vote on the law on local elections, pre-announcing Amnesty. None of this was not fulfilled, as Poroshenko every time brings new conditions — that the introduction of an international force to ensure security, transfer of control of the border, spelled out in the Minsk agreements, only at the final stage.
Of course, Kerry with his current boss can affect Poroshenko and force it to implement the Minsk agreement. But what are the guarantees that the Americans will fulfill their commitments in the event of their acceding to the “channel four”? Moreover, you need to understand that Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, the extension of the Normandy format at the expense of Washington would mean admitting defeat and inability does affect Kiev. So they (especially in Berlin) will resist it to the last.
Typical conversation with Poroshenko on the results of the visit of Kerry to Moscow and closed negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Meeting Poroshenko in Washington must make it clear to the Ukrainian President position of the American administration regarding rigour born of the satisfaction of the implementation of the Minsk agreements. The fact that the Kiev leader is not Barack Obama, and his chief Commissioner for the Ukraine in the rank of Vice President Joe Biden, speaks about complimentarian, strictly working nature of the visit. Whatever may be said Poroshenko, the main theme of his meetings in Washington is not his dream of nuclear weapons in the Crimea, and the fate of the settlement in the Donbass, which the current US administration is, for lack of a particular other success stories, wants to hang onto her breast before the presidential election on 8 November. All the talk about “deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Crimea,” he needs a diversion order was justified by the return.
And making excuses, admittedly, have. The protracted parliamentary crisis in the Verkhovna Rada started to play against Poroshenko himself. The Americans he clearly said no early parliamentary elections. And if until recently he believed that it is beneficial to freeze the situation with the impossibility of appointing a new Prime Minister in the absence of the necessary votes, but now it began to directly affect his position in Washington’s eyes and in the eyes of the Ukrainian voter (in that priority). The resignation an old friend of Poroshenko — the attorney General Shokina, mozolevski Americans eyes, is meant to appease the Dragon, which recently is very nervous. And here the problem is not so much in the behavior of the Ukrainian President, how many of the modern priorities of the Ukrainian political culture which does not presuppose the concept of responsibility. I am sure that now Poroshenko nostalgic of the former pre-revolutionary times, when new Ministers and head of the Cabinet did not require the President’s mandatory approvals with the American Ambassador. The current situation is simply impossible to find acceptable to all parties decision — favourite meet the needs of oligarchs and loyal to Poroshenko, the candidate for premieres will automatically do not to satisfy Washington it is precisely because of these factors. The principle of “divide and rule” mandated territories of the Anglo-Saxon world has not been canceled. At the same time, any consistent Biden, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers will not make Poroshenko more so than Yatsenyuk, and this is not to mention the impossibility to continue to build in this premiere of the former business scheme. Therefore, it still has not happened yesterday and a week ago the appointment of the Prime Minister the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Groysman — it does not agree with the Washington. Obviously, on the audience in the White house will be affected by this issue. However — let’s make a bold assumption — not a fact that it will be resolved.
Let’s face it: the best candidate for the post of head of Executive power of Ukraine in the current conditions would be Vice President Joe Biden himself. First, its current mandate is running out, and due to age (73 years) it is unlikely he could count on a high position in the next administration. Secondly, it certainly outperforms all the other possible Varangians from the Polish reformer Balcerowicz and Slovak Miklos to former Minister of foreign Affairs of Sweden Carl Bildt, who were invited recently to join the Ukrainian power structures. And finally, the third and main: he can in this position to implement the Minsk agreement, because it will not be hampered by any domestic complexes and fears. In contrast to Poroshenko, living in the constant predictions of its various advisers concerning the “invasion of Russian troops” and an imminent coup within the country. The last of these just before flying to Washington to Kiev leader predicted the former head of the security service and security Council of Ukraine Yevhen Marchuk. With which it was associated — 70% result candidate from the Opposition bloc at the election of the mayor of Krivoy Rog last Sunday, or to the desire rated premiere Yatsenyuk to retain his post against all odds — we can only guess. In any case, the purpose of such statements is the excuse of impossibility of performance signed in Minsk agreements.Related posts: