Assessing the terrorist attack in Brussels, coupled with the terrorist attack in Paris, we can say that the terrorists are experiencing a crisis of ideas and capabilities – both organizational and financial. And if the terrorist threat in Europe comes down to the actions of “sleeping cells”, this is overall good news. Much worse, if such attacks are designed to distract attention from the more ambitious idea.
Terrorists ‘ resources were limited: based on their theoretical possibilities, the final exhaust was quite weak. Russia all this was in the late 90s – early naughties. After this period, the attacks could be far more devastating if not for the efforts that have been taken to prevent them. For example, an attempt was made to organize the undermining of the dam of the Volgograd region that would be much more devastating than any “Shahid shares,” but it was averted at the preparation stage.
Fleeting foray, and not thought-out action
“Four tons of explosives will blow the biggest port facilities of Europe, bury the chain reaction of explosions half of Rotterdam, the Hague is all part of Dordrecht and Haarlem”
By themselves, “Shahid shares” generally do not require prior preparation. Enough to have four characters frozen in the Islamic quarter near the Brussels, which has long enjoyed a bad reputation. They can be both from new migrants and migrants in the second or third generation is a fully – fledged subjects of the Belgian king. From the point of view of the practice of movement, it doesn’t matter. Sat on the train – and none of you asks, where are you and why are you warm jacket. Maybe you are really cold, if it look like a native of the countries with a warm climate – or so thinks local police.
Buy two assault rifles and a box of TNT in Brussels, and even more so in Amsterdam or Antwerp – no problem, if you are familiar with a couple of good guys, talking among themselves Albanian. The rent is also not a problem, all the more so around the relatives and sympathizers. To equip a terrorist (still too respectful to use in relation to these people, the word Shaheed without the quotes) – the task for a few hours if he (she) is already prepared mentally. Now the Belgian police insisted on the use of psychotropic drugs, but for some reason in some justificatory tone, though here there can be no justificatory positions. The louder the voices of those who speak about the difficult fate of migrants, that we ought to pay them more, so they do not explode in the subway and terminals. But it already questions to the local mentality, which is teetering between socialism in its purest form and national blindness.
You can accuse the Royal police of Belgium in ignorance. But we must understand that in the exploration of working people representing ourselves what terrorism is and its capabilities in practice. And their work, as a rule, inhibited the activities of politicians who are guided not so much practical as ideological reasons. Even now the debate is about “the fate of migrants,” and not about security.
In a word, the organization of terrorist attacks of this kind from the category of silly. Especially in a country that was not originally prepared for internal defence, and even the events of the past year in France taught her nothing. The metal detector at the entrance does not violate human rights. In Moscow without them, nowhere at all to get there, and in strategic locations in Western Europe – come in, good people. And if all that has happened – convulsive seizures cells, which was partially liquidated four days ago, is only an additional indicator of the organizational weakness of terrorism in the form in which it was created in Western Europe over the past five years.
About these cells it is known that they worked autonomously, possessed by the standards of international terrorism very limited financial means and went on unjustified risks. It is in the 70-ies of the leftist extremists are not much different from the usual thugs – and therefore easily find common language with them. Now political terrorism has become an exclusive thing, and not every mafia will go on contact with people for a mile reeks of jihadism. From the mafia because there are “concepts”, and their own national feeling. It’s one thing to sell a few machines on the side, the other was to get a box of TNT and a swarthy bearded. However, the cell was forced to make contact with the bandits, because having the necessary support of the middle East community. As a result, the contacts with the openly criminal elements and are the reason that the whole scheme was uncovered in France six months ago. Citizens of the unrecognized Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia of Albanian nationality, who “fraternally” they sold the terrorists weapons, more characters, Kusturica, and not international terrorists. Because and caught.
Meanwhile contact with these people for conspiratorial terrorist cell. But the cells of Abdeslam just had to, no big funding, no alternative arms suppliers. They did what was within their reach, – detonated homemade belt in poorly protected areas.
This is intimidation in its purest form, which is called “blind” terrorist attacks – they have no specific goals. This rapid RAID, and not thought-out action. But here you feel the lack of resources, including intellectual. Already, there are no practical requirements, which could be presented to the European Nations, as it was in Madrid, when the background of a devastating terrorist attack, the socialists came to power and withdrew the Spanish contingent from Iraq. And if the “world terrorism” is now only capable of it, this is a great victory of those who struggles with terrorism.
There are two views of intelligence about what is happening now in Western Europe.
First. Potential terrorist “sleeper cell” really exhausted, and now they are capable of only relatively small shares (note: all the victims are worthy of remembrance and honor, the conversation now goes under the professional specificity). In favor of this version works the incompetence of the group of Abdeslam, his Association with mafia groups for the purpose of purchasing arms and low financial levels of support. They are like the cell were originally created as something self-contained in the criminal quarter of Brussels and as an operational contact had only Albanian traffickers used a weapon. The total potential terrorist jihadist system indeed suffered significant losses.
On the other hand, the orientation of the cells Abdeslam can be so Autonomous, that he never communicated with the General centers of terrorist training, if any. If we assume that as a result of common actions of the intelligence agencies of the world such still does not exist and there were only such “sleeper cells” that fight with them turns into an ordinary recruiting agents and wiretapping. Belgian counter did did: she several months followed Abdeslam order to cover the whole cell at once, identifying the greatest possible number of participants. System of conspiracy there was primitive, and the Belgian police (probably due to some internal reasons like career considerations) was just late with the arrests. The mechanism has been already launched and to implement such a simple attack, like an explosion in the subway, is not of great concern.
The global damage Western society such cells to cause can’t. We can talk about it relatively dispassionately and not because I don’t sympathize with the Belgians and the French, but because it’s Russia all suffered – and coped. We grieve along with all but one bomber in the subway and two at the airport is not to undermine nuclear power plants, “dirty bomb” or sprayed anthrax.
Second. It is reasonable to assume that the potential terrorist threat still remains. And while “sleeper cells” without mind and imagination just continue to prove themselves, in parallel we are preparing something much more global.
Imagine a perfect terrorist, with a good education and knowledge of the Quran. Let’s say that he has no access to the splitting of the atom and the medium-range missiles, but have the money. His goal – weak States of Western Europe. Further, all events are fictional, and geographic locations conditional.
A man of European appearance comes in a billiard club sailors in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Gets acquainted with the “right guys” from among the captains 4-tinnikov who works on the principle of bareboat. This means that the captain hires at their discretion a team of Filipino thugs and provides the charterer is a charming guy, speaking with a Boer accent. He asks why and where the ship goes. These captains and their vessels – the specific people, their survival depends on how few questions they ask. In Lloyd’s register and the ship is so registered, and when it goes away from Port Elizabeth, there is no cargo, no one knows where it goes, because the freight is time, and not at the port of arrival. Let’s say two months.
Somewhere near the island of St. George in the South Atlantic, where the satellites do not fly and there is no monitoring of cross-border services, 4-ton truck meets with the fishing trawler, which was released six months ago from Guinea-Bissau. Only tuna instead of the hold loaded with explosives – plastic, disguised as a soap made in Senegal under the brand name of a large international company. After this formally empty 4-ton truck is sent to, say, Rotterdam is the largest port of Europe (and there are more weak links, like Copenhagen).
Two weeks later, he becomes a RAID in the port of Rotterdam awaiting customs clearance. He is not suspicious, because the output from Port Elizabeth, was registered by Lloyds register, and formally it is empty. On the captain to take the boat in time to sail while a man in a good suit is not going to push the button. Four tons of explosives (and really more, it’s counting by gross weight of briquettes C4) will carry the biggest port facilities of Europe, bury the chain reaction of explosions half of Rotterdam, the Hague is all part of Dordrecht and Haarlem. How much will blaze oil terminals, refineries and other oil facilities, poisoning old Europe – is unknown. To recover the loss, it will be impossible even in the long term. Along the way stop working diamond exchange that will destroy the financial system of Israel and South Africa and undermine the global. This is a terrorist act.
And this we do not consider the use of weapons of mass destruction in any form.
If all terrorist activity is currently reduced to using the old “sleeping cells” – fine. But you can’t undo the possibility of something more ambitious. The scenario described above is only one possible, and a lot of them. The actions of “sleeping cells” can be the dying convulsions, and, on the contrary, natural acts for distraction. And now how big the risk really major terrorist attack – this is a question for the intelligence services of Western Europe.
Socialist talk about how boys need to give some more money, is talking to the poor (in the literal sense of the word). Somewhere in the world boys live, is able to load a 4 ton truck with explosives.Related posts: