The UN says worsening military situation in the Donbass, emphasizing that this notice not only due to the fact that the alleged “frozen” conflict has lost interest journalists. In such circumstances, as the APU has developed a fundamentally new tactics, which at any time may result in the resumption of full-fledged war.
The sharp aggravation of the situation on the front line in the Donbas was noted in the report of the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). “Despite the absence in the news headlines, the fighting in the Donbass since the end of January intensified, causing additional humanitarian needs of the 3.1 million people, directly affected by the conflict”, – is spoken in the document.
“It’s no secret that the Kiev General staff focused on the study of something vaguely similar to the German plan the Citadel – the attack on the Kursk bulge”
In the credentials of the observers for humanitarian Affairs does not include the assessment of the real military situation, but it’s really close to a very dangerous point. In the last days the intensity of fighting on the most problematic parts of the front – arc of the Donetsk – Gorlovka – have grown significantly. On average 60-80 celebrated local clashes, shootings and shelling during the day and sometimes in one night. This continued during February, but in early March the situation had become absolutely intolerable.
The intensity of the fighting in some areas is so great that even the Ukrainian side traditionally zamalchivaya their losses, forced daily to acknowledge them. Loss in VSN, which is also recognized openly. Under conditions of military censorship and a reasonable control over information activities of individual enthusiasts in the field is unprecedented.
In terms of information February’s fights were pushed back by Syria, and in the end APU from the local fire moved on to attempt a breakthrough in the most important from the point of view of the Kiev area – in the direction of the highway linking Donetsk and Gorlovka. Strictly speaking, it is the E50 section of the route Donetsk – debaltseve, but near the village of Panteleymonovka from it to the North goes the road to Gorlovka. A year as these strategically important routes were essentially lateral relative to the front, and the exit of the Ukrainian troops to them is critically important, because it can stop not only the transport between the major urban agglomerations of Donbass, but also – in theory – to break the communication between Donetsk and Lugansk.
Within two days of VSU probed positions VSN practically across the arc. Firefight was also observed to the West of Donetsk – in the area of Marinka – Kurakhovo – Krasnogorovka, and in the traditionally volatile region airport – Peski – Avdeyevka, and on the North up to Gorlovka. As a result of aggravation of the situation travel along the corridor Gorlovka – Artemovsk and through CPW “zaytsevo” was closed. Same story with passages for civilians across the front line in the direction Kurakhovo and Elenovki. Some of them were formed kilometer tube, the so-called people’s control began to filter out “soft” cars, started fights.
At the same time escalated the situation and conditional on the Mariupol direction. Fighting in the southern sector of the front has already moved into the steppe, where the APU regularly check the strength of the position of the VSN in the area of Starohnativka – it was there last summer happened is perhaps the largest during the truce the Mat trying to break the front. The current attacks Ukrainian units are more organized. If earlier it was possible to assume, that the APU has worked exclusively tactical schemes, now it is about full participation in the “micronetblink” battalion groups.
Are these “microstoria” point. For example, from 5 to 7 March and on the night of the 7th on the 8th on a site of Yasinovataya – Gorlovka was quiet, Mayberry was observed at the Lugansk direction. Presumably, the advanced battalion group took on vacation to Avdeevka and the pressure at this time was in the airport and the Trinity, that is, at the arc sections.
For the Ukrainian army this is an obvious innovation. Earlier, the battalion group in the strengthened structure in the collision was not involved. They were formed in present form for the last year, and a few strange armoured squadron and artillery unevenly “smeared” on the front, which created exceptional numerical superiority on several problem areas. It is in these areas of the APU and began now to work the “multi-tribal” batgroup. While nobody can really imagine what the new field organization of APU, heterogeneous, non-unified battalion group will interact with each other, the more that formally, the command remains with the brigade commanders, subordinate to which are mixed in a nearly random order at the front is almost 200 kilometers. Yet nothing good happens, but after all in order and organized like “check front” to explore coordination opportunities in the new scheme.
Another practical objective in these attacks, monitoring the positions of VSN. Infinite rotation, as well as the need to observe Minsk agreement force BCH to change the details of their configuration almost daily. APU the easiest and most intuitive way to clarify the current situation – reconnaissance. Just now it has begun to take shape beyond the “frozen conflict” and threatening to escalate into something much more unpleasant. It’s no secret that the Kiev General staff focused on the study of something vaguely similar to the German plan of “Citadel” – the offensive of Kursk. Donetsk is expected to be surrounded by two converging attacks from the North arc and South from Volnovakha with the subsequent exit to the rear of the VSN and further to the Russian border. On sites possible breakthrough in the last month (especially last week) and are gradually increasing “intelligence battle”.
Yes, evidence of active preparation of a large-scale offensive on the Ukrainian side is not observed, but this does not exclude the logic of events. In addition, the location and configuration of the parts of the APU give them the opportunity to go on the offensive for a few hours without any additional deployment, and on some parts of the front to attempt a breakthrough do not require any special training. Another thing is that to the West of Donetsk it’s a hopeless exercise, because even the huge group that focuses on a narrow site Marinka – Kurakhovo – Krasnogorovka, not enough to storm a very beautiful city in the forehead, but the Kiev strategy and does not provide. The leadership has repeatedly raised with the Ukrainian generals problem is not so much military, much of the propaganda nature, because such a strange disposition of the APU in Kiev is considered to be justified and even useful.
According to some reports, VSN, was ordered ammo to spare, and in the last two days in the period of maximum tension mortar fire was transferred into the Ukrainian positions that immediately stopped any attempts of a breakthrough. For example, the Ukrainian positions were fired at Krasnogorovka, which, in fact, not a front and rear 14th Ombre (the headquarters is located in Kurakhovo). Same story in Trinity, although the rear and staff positions in the area of Avdeyevka VSN is not fired. Here again is visible the strangeness of a new organizational system of the armed forces. Some newly formed battalion group in Avdiivka and in the area East of it up to Gorlovka are managed from the headquarters in Kurakhovo, that is, from a different sector of the front, even geographically from other areas. For example, 58-I the Ombre, consisting of five battalion group with artillery and a tank battalion of up to 5 thousand people, and three separate battalion group on the front line are controlled from Krasnogorovka that, at least, far and unreasonable.
It is difficult to speculate on the subject, what in all of this more – policy or a purely military confrontation. But if this policy, which: domestic squabbles or external pressure? From the perspective of Kiev global offensive operation must be quick and decisive, she should not leave the policy space. But even with the current correlation of forces (Mat outnumber VSN on key parts of the front almost twice) and in theory positive for Mat configuration front instant the operation is not possible. The problem is in the lack of confidence that it is understood in Kiev.
To provoke VSN responses are also unpromising. Yes, the militia is forced to push it to the front line artillery, but to wait now from the new Russia of some actions that could discredit the observance of the Minsk negotiation process, it would be short-sighted. It is possible that the APU after some time to calm down and find another way to work out the interaction of the battalion group and to verify the configuration. But in the conditions of Donbass front of these local battles can escalate into a protracted and bloody carnage that has twice occurred during the “truce”. And we habitually expect the worst.Related posts: