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Saturday, January 20, 2018

“The Germans thought about the alternative”

The results of the local elections in are critical not only for domestic policy, the main EU countries. They finally confirm the irreversibility of the European tendencies of the demolition of the existing party system, ensuring the dominance of the Atlanticist elites. On the scene of new anti-systemic forces. What this means for the future of Germany and Europe in General?

The German elections were seen as a referendum on immigration policy, Angela Merkel, and in this sense their result was for her party, the CDU disappointing. In all three lands where passed elections in local parliaments, local government, the Christian Democrats worsened their performance.

“Mistrust of the political elite, the problem of migrants and euroscepticism hacked party system of Germany”

With most of the damage they suffered in one of the largest German States, Baden-Württemberg, where the party lost almost a third of voters. There for the first time in postwar history (that is, in principle, in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany) CDU became the second party, giving primacy to “Green”. Prior to Sunday’s elections the CDU was ruling in only one of three who voted lands in Saxony-Anhalt. There she was in power in coalition with the social Democrats, but now even they not together enough votes for a majority. In Rhineland-Palatinate, where the CDU had hoped to catch up with the SPD – a list of party was headed by a rising star of right-wing Julia Klockner, which almost tipped to be the successor of the Chancellor – instead, it dropped five percent.

But if it was just the defeat of the HDZ, that’s only half the problem for the German political system. Lost the vote and the second party of the ruling coalition – the SPD in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt they missed nearly half of the voters. The ruling in Berlin’s “Grand coalition” loses voters, and the same the CDU does not help even the fact that its candidates for premieres in two of the three lands, in fact, distanced himself from the liberal immigration policy of the Chancellor. The problem is that more and more Germans do not hide their distrust of the ruling parties as such. And given that the government is a coalition of the two main parties, who ruled Germany for most of the postwar period, this means a systemic crisis of the party system.

Hence the main sensation of the elections – a powerful leap non-system “Alternatives for Germany”. She became the third party in the two regions and took second place in another.

To her left the part of voters of the CDU. But more importantly, she came to vote who had never participated in elections – for example, in Saxony-Anhalt was almost half supporting her. And in this earth the East German party gained 24 percent of the vote – only 5% behind the CDU. In the green Baden-Württemberg she’s 15, and in the social democratic Reynald-Palatinate – for 12.6. Now ADG is presented in half of the regional parliaments, and there is no doubt that it will be held in the Bundestag elections next year. Before the national General elections a year and a half, and the ruling German party needs something urgently to come up with in order to reverse the trend, but nothing they can’t do.

The reason is that the CDU and SPD has disappointed its traditional voters, the party who filed himself as national, no longer perceived as such. And if the process of fragmentation of voters on the left flank has been going on for a long time – apart from the SPD and is powerful in the West “Green”, and popular in the East “Left” (heirs of former East German Communists), the CDU (in Alliance with his brother of the Bavarian CSU) have always considered themselves as the only right-wing party.

To the right of the Christian Democrats in the legal field anyone should not be – these are the unspoken conditions of German political life. All that to the right, immediately called, at best, a populist, and at worst nationalists in bound by ties of tolerance is equivalent to Nazi Germany. Appearing earlier “populists” scare voters, exposing them radicals and a threat to social calm, quickly marginalized and isolated.

But “Alternative”, created just three years ago, just before the elections to the Bundestag then it is not enough just 0.3 percent to pass in the Parliament – failed to isolate. Created by intellects-the eurosceptic party of the CDU has managed to cling to a public space – and now even the collective efforts of the German press can’t convince the Germans that before them “dangerous elements”.

The party first gained representation in the land Parliament just a year and a half ago, and after yesterday’s elections, her faction is already in half of the diet of the country, and it’s already consistently vote more than ten percent of the electorate. How many will be willing to pay for it to vote in elections in September 2017? 15 percent or 20? She has a good chance to become third in number of votes, and what the German political system?

The fact that ADH is opposed not just the CDU, and not even the ruling “Grand coalition” – it acts as an alternative to practically all system parties. Because it speaks loudly about what others prefer to ignore – now this is a problem of migrants, but three years ago there was a problem and Euro debt of Greece. “Alternatives”, of course, are not radicals, populists and nationalists – and even migrantophobia or islamophobes they can not be called. Just in gripped in a vise of political correctness in Germany of any doubt to the need of the migrant is presented as a terrible sin.

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