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Friday, January 19, 2018

“In the new year Russia will either rise or continue to fall”

What awaits the Russian economy in the next : increase by 0.3–1%, or recurrence slow downs as in the past? What to prepare for Russian businesses and Russians? A lot depends on whether 2016 a crucial year in the oil market, but not only.

The situation in the first months of 2016 is more than understandable. Market participants believe that after the New year the dollar will its March upward, cutting down on its path of oil prices and, as a result, the Russian ruble. On the last trading day of 2015, December 30, the dollar crossed the mark of 73 rubles, and the Euro was worth almost 80 rubles. For the year Brent crude oil fell by 34%, dropping to 37.3 per barrel.

“In the middle of 2016 may begin the reversal in the oil market, only if there is the geopolitical factor is the active phase of the military conflict”

What further destiny of the Russian economy – the decline or growth? The Russian government has prepared the budget for 2016 based on average oil prices of $ 50. The Ministry is waiting for the 0.7 per cent growth at the price of a barrel. The forecast of the Central Bank, however, is more pessimistic. They believe that the Russian GDP will be released in a stable is a plus, but only in 2017.

Economists in General is also divided into two camps. In order to clearly understand what will happen next, it is necessary to speak with confidence about how much a year will cost the barrel. And this is the main surprise of this year. Almost the same situation was observed at the end of 2014. But there is a difference: then it was more difficult to assess how strong the Russian economy under the external shock. Now she has an experience in 2015 that surprised many Western experts. adapted a twofold drop in oil prices and fell into the abyss, as some had thought. Even there were reasons to talk about growth in 2016. But here, as always out of place, said the oil rally is now below $ 40 per barrel.

We can distinguish three scenarios for the Russian economy next year. If oil prices for the year will be still 50 dollars per barrel, as laid down in the Russian budget. It is now quite comfortable price for the commodity sector and overall economy. If oil is below $ 40 is a pessimistic scenario, then Russia again, as in 2015, will have to adjust and re-learn to live in less comfortable conditions. Last year was adjusted to $ 50, in the new have to get used to 35-40. Finally, there is an optimistic scenario in which oil takes an unexpected turn and for the year goes to 60 dollars per barrel or even more. But now it looks too far-fetched.

Where does the oil

All four factors affecting the oil, they say one thing – the price of a barrel in the next year will not grow, says Deputy Director of the national energy security Fund Alexander Pasechnik. Care of oil prices of 25-30 dollars per barrel are possible, but only short term. The annual average oil will cost $ 45 per barrel, experts predict. Recovery quotes more likely in 2017.

The oil is influenced by four factors: fundamental – balancing of supply and demand, monetary market futures, which is on the order exceeds the physical volumes of oil, geopolitical – military conflicts in the countries – exporters of oil and political factors – the desire of the U.S. to strangle Russia, the budget of nettavisen.


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