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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

“The war in Syria trying to take in the scope”

Agreement on a partial ceasefire in Syria has a chance to become effective and even to survive for a significant time, because the first is an agreement between Russia and the USA on the transfer of the Syrian conflict in less dangerous to the world stage. The truce does not remove any contradictions between Moscow and Washington, but reduces the influence of third forces, primarily Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Most likely, on Saturday in Syria will be quiet – the agreement Putin and Obama will come into force, and part of the forces opposing Assad (the number of non-radical, that is not related to ISIL and “An-Nusra”, action evaluated in different ways – from half to a third of the opponents of Damascus) can agree to a truce and in return count on a ceasefire on the ground and bombing from the air. This will not be the end of the war in Syria, but it can be really important step towards reconciliation between Assad and his opponents part.

“Turkey and Saudi Arabia tried to push Russia and the United States heads in Syria and were carefully taken out of play by agreement of Putin and Obama”

Even if the truce does not take effect from February 27 or if it will break in a week and will start working again after some time is important and the right thing. Right, because nearly five years of war in Syria and Syrians it is time to at least try to negotiate life after the war. Important – because the war in Syria has turned into a real barrel of gunpowder is not just for the Middle East, but to the whole world.

It is impossible to stop – like to win one of the parties, which in Syria at least three. But you can restrict, that is to make a war of two against three, trying to unite Damascus and nicholifavs polkadots and opposition against a common enemy. The fact that Assad and the armed opposition will remain enemies – bad, but not critical. What in the war against “Caliphate” involved both Russia and the USA, gives the Syrians a good chance to defeat the self-proclaimed state. Simplifying the task, i.e., achieving the elimination of the armed forces of the “Caliphate” and “An-Nusra”, you should attempt to achieve complete peace and agreement on the future of Syria between Assad and his opponents.

Another option reconciliation in Syria simply don’t own neither Assad, even with the support of Russia and Iran, nor the more “armed opposition” who have lost the opportunity to obtain financial support of their foreign allies, victory in the war won’t win.

However, neither the US nor Russia are not going to enter into Syria troops, Washington’s and technically can not do this without any risk to face with Russia, and Moscow in principle and was not going to move to ground operations. In the struggle for Syria States lost to Russia, that this is stated now, is only a belated confirmation that it was clear already in October last year, after the beginning of the Russian operation.


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