The Russian-American agreement on Syria will have a big impact on neighboring countries – primarily in Turkey. Erdogan does not like the agreement Putin and Obama, but he can’t disrupt its implementation for a number of reasons. Why do these agreements mean loss of Turkey and what will she do next?
The Turkish authorities were forced to formally support the agreement Putin and Obama on a truce between Damascus and the opposition radical – because it would be strange to advocate the continuation of the war. But they did it with reservations that leave no doubt as to their displeasure.
“Agreement on the truce became the biggest defeat of the Turkish policies against Syria and the Kurds”
“The truce in Syria, in principle, positive and will give the opportunity to breathe our Syrian brothers, said Erdogan, but it is supporting the Assad regime… worrisome ambiguity of language in relation to the Syrian opposition. We fear that this agreement could lead to even more tragic consequences”.
The Turkish President said that the truce “will be buttering the bread Assad and those who support it, throwing overboard the real masters of Syria”, recalled that “earlier such attempts were used for the occupation of new territories”, and said that “it was necessary to take into account the sensitivity of Turkey. We will continue to monitor the process of the truce”.
Further, Erdogan has already openly called a truce and dishonest has said about his disappointment that “the West, the USA, Russia, Iran, the EU and the UN, unfortunately, no longer stand up for human values”, because “because of their own interests directly or indirectly allowed the Assad regime and its supporters to kill almost half a million innocent civilians”. Accusing all, Erdogan demanded to take into account the interests of Turkey “as the country most affected by what is happening in Syria,” calling for actual change in the terms of the armistice:
“If “Islamic state” and “Frente al-Nusra” the ceasefire does not apply, then the Kurdish group Democratic Union and “people’s defence Units” must also be outside of the cease-fire.”
To exclude the Syrian Kurds from armistice it is impossible – they are one of the main forces opposing the “Caliphate”, and have the support of both Russia and the United States. Erdogan understands this but continues to talk about the Turkish desires. That’s all he is – because of the agreement on the truce was a major defeat for Turkish policy in Syria. The second in the last three months – after the destruction of the Russian plane. However, a gamble on 24 November and the agreement of 22 February for Turkey are directly linked – hitting back in Russia, Erdogan has lost the ability to influence the Syrian situation, and the agreement Putin and Obama only recorded the withdrawal of Turkey from the game. Why Turkey lost and what will she do next?
During the Syrian war, Turkey made a bid for the fall of Assad and replace him on the moderate Islamists. The expansion of the “Caliphate” and the gradual radicalization of the moderates have not changed the position of Erdogan – he was confident in Assad’s removal. At some point in Ankara, apparently, decided that a United Syria would be no more – and then there began to consider the options section of the neighboring States, including the accession of Turkey to the number of districts, inhabited by Turkomans.