In civil war-torn Syria, it seems, finally lull. The cessation of hostilities, which came into force on the night of February 27 led to the decline of violence in the country, said the representative of the UN Secretary General. With reservations — accusing each other in separate violations of the truce agree and the Syrian authorities and the opposition opposes them. Nevertheless, says the UN special envoy on Syria, Staffan de Mistura, is only the first step towards a genuine ceasefire and negotiations between the parties to the Syrian conflict. They are expected to be held March 7 — if the current success will be secured.
The civil war in Syria has lasted nearly five years. Two years ago, the situation was aggravated by the increased activity of so-called “Islamic state” (IG, banned in Russia as a terrorist organization), who took control of a considerable Syrian and Iraqi territory.
Until now the international community has failed somehow have a positive impact on the Syrian conflict (except for military operations by Russia and the US-led coalition, but they are held against IG).
The truce, which was achieved mainly through cooperation between Moscow and Washington for two weeks. This does not mean that after March 11, the opposition and forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, will destroy each other. In UN circles in talking about the period of the truce regularly featured the word “original” — the international community expects the lull will taste opposing sides and return to the fighting. The two-week period, the UN expects to use to the maximum, seated during this time the participants of the Syrian conflict to the negotiating table. Meeting, if the cessation of hostilities will not be disrupted, is to be held on March 7, said Staffan de Mistura.
In addition, the beginning of the truce is intended to stabilize the humanitarian situation in Syria, providing access to doctors, cargo, etc. Only after solving this problem, says de Mistura will rely on the willingness of the opposition to the negotiating table.
We will remind, on IG, and affiliated with “al-Qaeda” “al-Nusra Front” the truce does not apply, which may complicate the situation, because none of these factions in a political solution to the Syrian crisis is not interested. The fight against them will continue, but, according to experts, it is technically very difficult to implement: the strikes on ISIS, for example, can hurt those groups that joined the peace process. If the pressure on the terrorists will be weakened, this will give them a chance to regroup and gather new strength.
Another important factor is the inter-Syrian settlement to the Kurdish question. While the Kurds were effectively excluded from the negotiating process, although their participation actively supports Moscow. The Syrian Kurds, in turn, very tense relations with Turkey, which has repeatedly shown interest in the fate of Northern Syria. After the announcement of the armistice, the Turkish forces continued shelling Syrian territory, officials say Syrian Kurdistan. The Turkish authorities have given to understand that, despite the ceasefire, reserves the right to respond to emanating from Syria the threat of national security. And to those Ankara considers primarily the Kurdish formations, because their action on the ground in Syria can become a factor in the radicalization of the Kurds in Turkey itself. The Russian side has asked the us center for reconciliation in Syria (based in Amman) data concerning the actions of Ankara — as Turkey is part of the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS.