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Saturday, March 17, 2018

“The game is in crisis thimbles”

With anti-crisis plan while iron one thing is clear: the crisis is evident, therefore, government must have a plan to combat it. Next — the fog. The main thing in this plan is money, but with very little clarity. The Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov has already warned that the government knows how much money is in the coveted bedside table. What really is “plan”.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

The dancing figures. And the farther the fire. On 18 February the government “mostly” approved the proposals on anti-crisis plan presented by the Ministry of economic development. Alexei Ulyukayev said that the anti-crisis plan is 880 billion rubles, which the government will be plugging those holes, which considers a particularly gaping, or those where the social component is recognized as crucial. Of those 880 billion to about 440 billion rubles already provided in the budget for 2016, about 40 billion rubles will be financed from the NWF, and about 40 billion roubles is expected to additionally provide in the form of state guarantees. 185 billion rubles were allocated to financed anti-crisis reserve of the budget and sources of funding for a further 189 billion rubles is not determined. Thus, the total “off-budget” measures are 374 billion. The adoption of the plan “primarily” meant that these 374 billion roubles will trample down 250 billion is a limit set by the government.

The figures I quoted by RIA “Novosti”. If you are not lazy and lay down to 440, 40, 40, 185 and 189 billion rubles, the sum of $ 894 billion, not 880. If you subtract 894 billion in savings 124 billion, which requires the government to remain 770 billion — a figure that no one called. Overall, not a plan, but a joke on the subject of shrinkage, outage and rounding.

But the joke is not over, happened shaped the uprising of the Ministry of Finance. Promolchu, when the government “generally,” approved the creation of the economic development Ministry, Anton Siluanov, on 20 February, sent Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev the letter. If letters could be called as article, this letter accurately would be called “can’t shut up”. Leo Tolstoy under the same title protested against the hanging of 20 farmers (it was in 1908), Anton Siluanov is against the distortion of the budget in 2016. the pathos, of course, but to each his own. Siluanov warns that the government’s anti-crisis Fund has only 65 billion rubles, approximately 55 billion rubles may appear in April — when the Federal Treasury will send to the Fund unclaimed balances budget for 2015. And that’s it. No 250 billion roubles, you can count only on 120.

In the eyes dazzled? Then it’s time to remember: in General, Ulyukaev announced 880 billion anti — crisis plan is a lot or a little? Quite a bit when compared with previous crisis programs. In 2008-2009 to combat the crisis and dispatched 3.5 trillion rubles, in 2015 — 2,33 trillion. Although in 2015 even managed to save, rows of RUB — defenders of the Russian economy, as it is easy to see, from year to year melt away. And now it turns out that the and 880 billion rubles under the gun no longer works. And even 770 billion.

What to do? The answer, oddly enough, has, them even two. First — Siluanov. He offers no hope for improved collection of budget revenues or privatization, which suddenly “shoot”, which probably will not happen, and, as befits those who can’t decide for ourselves to run there, where decisions are made in the Kremlin.

Homeland granaries, too, are different. According to Siluanov, there is a presidential reserve from which the government could request up to 342,2 billion. The Minister of Finance proposes a Solomonic decision. To get the existing 130 billion of extra-budgetary anti-crisis money from the President’s purse to be searched And the 250 billion plan will stand, and the President will remain. In its own way elegant.

There is a second solution. The government unlike crisis it is irrelevant.

All noticed that, as a government plan or not, banks — except for the VEB, but it’s not just the Bank and the state Corporation of development, nothing broke off. Why? You can, of course, to remember how much they been through enough in the past, “fat” anti-crisis campaign. And you can just see how, on 20 February, the Central Bank has allocated 600 billion rubles, “systemically important banks”. The loans are granted for one year on applications to banks, their goal is insurance. It comes to the implementation of “the standard short-term liquidity” — one of the requirements of Basel III, the meaning of the standard — one hundred percent (2016) covering a highly liquid assets to expected net outflow of funds from the Bank. Credits of the Central Bank, of course, should not embark on a turnover, if the “insured event” not occurred.

Size matters. While the government will not catch up with the crisis with its program and could not find the 130 billion rubles, the Central Bank without noise and dust allocates 600 billion to the banks this is an anti-crisis program. If the government will continue to pull and shift the solution in their offices, it may come to that whole anti-crisis program will Finance the Central Bank.

In the end market there is no difference, where does the newly printed rubles — directly from the factories of Goznak, or the funding of the budget deficit from the Reserve Fund. In any case RUB becomes greater and they fall into the economy at interest by the Central Bank, and virtually free.

Nikolay Vardul, chief editor of “Financial newspaper”


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